RADIO
Though I wrote the following in last week’s column, it was another instance where I didn’t follow my own intuition:
“I have a hunch that Tampa Bay gets their offense cooking back on a 2021 level in this spot. In that scenario, the Panthers would need to abandon their recent run-heavy ways and revert to more dropbacks. Sam Darnold has been fond of D.J. Moore since regaining his starting position, and the stats bear that out.”
So of course, I didn’t play any Brady-Evans-Godwin stacks, which won all the money last weekend. We press on to Week 18, a week with varying motivation levels for many teams. But there are still some teams that will be playing all out to win, and those are ones we should target.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Jalen Hurts ($8200) + Dallas Goedert ($4900)
Philly is gunning for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and a matchup with New York doesn’t appear to be very daunting for them — especially considering they defeated this same team by the score of 48-22 in Week 14. New York possesses a middle-of-the-road pass defense, but Jalen Hurts racked up 217 passing yards and two scores in that previous matchup. He also added 77 rushing yards and a score on the ground.
Dallas Goedert was not available for that Week 14 outing, but if he was, he likely would have had success; Brian Daboll’s club has surrendered the seventh-most receptions (82) and the ninth-most receiving yards to the tight end position (876). During the last two games with Gardner Minshew, Goedert did not draw a red-zone target. He drew eight such targets in his other nine contests. Having Hurts back, and seeing this defense, should do wonders for Goedert.
Preferred bring-back: Richie James ($4400)
Leverage piece: Miles Sanders ($5900)
New York is one of three teams allowing 5.3 yards per carry or more. Miles Sanders was the beneficiary of this matchup in that aforementioned Week 14 battle, accruing 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 17 carries. PFF has the Giants tabbed as the fifth-worst-graded run defense in football. Expect another solid performance from Sanders in Week 18.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Kirk Cousins ($7700) + Justin Jefferson ($9000) OR T.J. Hockenson ($7200)
Minnesota may be the least motivated of the teams I’m choosing to stack this weekend, but you just never know what might happen. Justin Jefferson is 193 yards away from the single-season receiving record, and Kevin O’Connell strikes me as a coach that is cool enough to maybe make a run at that.
This will be a true pick-your-poison situation for Minnesota. Ranking as the eighth-worst pass coverage team and the league-worst rush defense according to PFF, Chicago likely won’t be able to withstand the Vikings’ offensive attack. Kirk Cousins completed 32-of-41 attempts on his way to a 296/1/1 line in a 29-22 Minnesota victory against Chicago in Week 5. Jefferson caught 12 of those passes for 154 yards in that matchup.
It seems like I’ve written up Minnesota every single week recently, and I’ve heaped praise on T.J. Hockenson every single time. He’s drawn a massive 45 targets combined over their last four games. Chicago has actually been exceptional against tight ends, allowing a league low in receptions and targets to the position. But Hockenson has proven his value to Minnesota’s coaching staff week in and week out.
Preferred bring-back: Cole Kmet ($5800)
Leverage piece: Dalvin Cook ($8000)
Chicago’s defense ranks dead last in run defense and as the sixth-worst tackling team in the NFL according to PFF. It’s been mostly a lackluster fantasy season for Dalvin Cook, with just three games above 20 PPR points. But the opportunity continues to be there with multiple red-zone carries in five of his last six outings. Against a porous Chicago run defense, Cook could break through in the season’s final week.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Geno Smith ($6000) + DK Metcalf ($6700) OR Tyler Lockett ($6400)
367 passing yards and three touchdowns — that was the production put up by Geno Smith in his first meeting with the Los Angeles Rams this year. Seattle faces a must-win scenario in Week 18, so why would Pete Carroll’s team deviate from their strategy that led to a 27-23 victory over the Rams in Week 13?
Only the Cardinals and Colts have allowed a higher completion percentage than the Rams this season (67.8%). Prior to running into defensive phenom Sauce Gardner last week, DK Metcalf had drawn eight or more targets in seven of the previous eight weeks. (He saw just five targets last weekend.) He caught all eight of his targets in Week 13 against Sean McVay’s team, for 127 yards and a score.
In Weeks 8-14, Tyler Lockett caught a touchdown in every single game. He also posted a monster 9/128/1 stat line in Game 1 against the Rams. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it — Seattle should be able to pummel Los Angeles with their passing attack.
Preferred bring-back: Tyler Higbee ($4400)
Leverage piece: Kenneth Walker ($6400)
With all that being said, this is still Seattle we’re talking about. Carroll dreams about establishing the run, so Kenneth Walker is still very viable. Though the Rams have been relatively stout against opposing rushing attacks this season, Austin Ekeler was able to exploit them a week ago for 122 yards and two scores on the ground — including a 72-yard TD scamper.
Walker has 23 or more carries and 107 or more rushing yards in back-to-back games. L.A. surrendered 192 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry last week. The rookie popping off for a big game is not inconceivable here.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers ($7100) + Christian Watson ($6900)
For whatever reason, FanDuel included the Lions-Packers game on the main slate — even though it’s the Sunday night game. If the Seahawks do indeed lose their game during the day, this game could be quite entertaining from both a real-life and DFS perspective.
With a 49 Vegas total and the Packers favored by 4.5, this sets up great for Aaron Rodgers and his pass catchers. When the chips have been down this season, he’s looked toward his talented rookie, Christian Watson. The matchup is absolutely pristine, as the Lions are serving up a league-leading 398.7 total yards per game.
I’ve written up offenses facing off with the Lions all year, and the last week of the season is no different. Detroit is tied with Chicago for the most passing yards per attempt allowed (7.5). This meshes well with Watson’s deep-threat abilities, as he ranks 15th at the WR position in aDOT (13.4). In Week 17, the North Dakota State product didn’t draw a red-zone target — which can be attributed to his hip injury. Prior to that, he had seen seven red-zone targets in the three weeks prior.
Preferred bring-back: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8000)
Leverage piece: A.J. Dillon ($6900)
With at least one touchdown in five straight games, the fantasy tide may have finally turned for A.J. Dillon after a tumultuous start to the season. Dan Campbell’s defense has been vulnerable to just about every means of generating offense, and running the ball is one of those means; only the Chargers have allowed more yards per carry than the Lions (5.3).
Aaron Jones saw significant volume last week (16 touches to Dillon’s 12). He’s still on the injury report this week with knee/ankle issues. It’s possible that Matt LaFleur leans on Dillon in a late-season game like this one — he notched double-digit carries in six of GB’s final eight games in 2021 after just three such games in the first half of the season.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Mike White ($5300) + Garrett Wilson ($5800)
Miami has been in a free-fall of sorts lately, losing five straight games. In those contests, Mike McDaniel’s defense has served up 23, 26, 32, 23, and 33 points. What plays into the fantasy side of things here is that the ‘Fins are in search of a playoff berth, so they will be pulling out all the stops on offense to put points up.
Mike White has attempted 57, 44, and 46 passes in his last three starts. Though his best start was by far his first one of this season (Week 12 against Chicago), the high volume of pass attempts is music to DraftKings players’ ears. Combining New York’s penchant to air the ball out with Miami’s suspect pass defense should yield positive DFS results here.
According to PFF, the Dolphins own the seventh-worst pass coverage in the league. They’re allowing the second-most DK points per game to opposing gunslingers (22.5) and they have given up the third-most passing touchdowns (27). Miami is also allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage of any team (67.3%).
That last statistic is great news for sensational rookie Garrett Wilson, who could use a bump in efficiency. Over the last five weeks, the 22-year-old has hauled in just 25-of-51 targets. Expect White and Wilson to connect more frequently than just 49% of the time on Sunday.
Preferred bring-back: Tyreek Hill ($8600)
Leverage piece: Tyler Conklin ($3600)
With five double-digit PPR games this season, Tyler Conklin has not been a tight end option to scoff at in 2022. Only the Cardinals have yielded more receptions to TEs than Miami (95). Only the Lions have allowed more TDs to the position than Miami (10). McDaniel’s club has surrendered the third-most DK points to TEs. Roster Conklin in your White stacks.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Brock Purdy ($6900) + George Kittle ($7600)
In four starts with the 49ers, these are Brock Purdy’s attempts in each game: 21 (Bucs), 26 (Seahawks), 22 (Commanders), and 35 (Raiders). In those games, here are George Kittle’s target numbers: 5 (Bucs), 5 (Seahawks), 8 (Commanders), and 8 (Raiders).
Purdy has been consistently targeting Kittle since taking over, and that has been very apparent. Out of his 104 passes thrown, the former Hawkeye tight end has been the target on 26 of them — which equates to a 25% target share. His target share over the course of the entire season has been 19.3%.
This dynamic duo has combined for five touchdowns since Purdy’s starting debut in Week 14. That trend could very well continue, as San Fran’s Week 18 opponent, Arizona, is notoriously bad against TEs. They have conceded the fourth-most targets, the most receptions, the third-most yards, and the second-most TDs to the position (Pro Football Reference). Expect more fireworks from Kittle to close out the season.
Preferred bring-back: DeAndre Hopkins ($8000)
Leverage piece: Brandon Aiyuk ($7100)
Brandon Aiyuk has pieced together back-to-back games of 81 and 101 yards. Additionally, he has 19 targets combined in the last two weeks and he had three red-zone targets last week. Because Purdy’s attempt numbers have been very low, it wouldn’t be advised to double stack him with his receiving options. If you’d like to zag (play Aiyuk) while others zig (play Kittle), Aiyuk is the choice here.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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