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Who's going to bust in Super Bowl LVII? Joe Nicely looks at five Super Bowl favorites who are the most likely to flop in the 2022-23 playoffs.
As we enter 2023, the NFL regular season is in the books. As a result, we have a clear picture of the NFL playoffs.
Football fans have had months to take in the action and form their own opinions as to which teams have the best shot at the ultimate prize - the Super Bowl. As we move closer to the NFL's postseason, it’s fun to wonder who are the teams that should have a great shot at the Lombardi Trophy but might crumble in the playoffs.
We’ll rank those potential busts here, as we dive into the top-five Super Bowl favorites who are most likely to flop in the playoffs! Odds below current as of 01/09/23.
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#1. Dallas Cowboys (Current Super Bowl Odds: +1200)
America's Team. Lots of people simply love – or hate – the Dallas Cowboys. That popularity likely plays a role in their current 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. That said, the 'Boys have often looked great thi season en route to their 12-5 record.
Despite a clicking Dak Prescott-led offense with emerging stars like CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard, as well as a stout defense captained by superstar Micah Parsons that's allowing the NFL's third-fewest points per game, Dallas gets the top spot on our "Most Likely To Flop List."
Why? Because we've seen this movie before and – if recent history is any indicator – we know how it ends. Despite their impressive play this year and legendary championship history, the Cowboys haven’t actually been to a Super Bowl since 1996. Ouch.
Dallas has only logged two playoff wins since 2013 and was booted in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs despite entering the postseason with an impressive 12-5 record. Sound familiar?
#2. Minnesota Vikings (Current Super Bowl Odds: +3000)
Despite an impressive 13-4 record that's given them a stranglehold on the NFC North title, the Minnesota Vikings might be considered paper tigers by some.
While they do have an impressive win in a wild game at Buffalo on their 2022 resume, the Vikes were dominated by some other Super Bowl contenders they've faced this year, as they were roundly trounced by the Philadelphia Eagles early in the season and were destroyed by the Dallas Cowboys in a 40-3 loss last month.
Minnesota has won five of their last seven, pulling off two home wins against winning AFC East squads (Patriots and Jets) since Thanksgiving only to then be soundly whipped in a visit to Detroit in Week 14 before mounting the largest comeback in NFL history to defeat the lowly Colts and squeezing out a three-point victory over the visiting New York Giants. They dropped a road game to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau before closing out the regular season with a win over the lowly Chicago Bears.
This is a defensive unit that ranks dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards allowed per game, with an offense that has an unquestioned star in Justin Jefferson but grades out a middling 18th in Total Offense DVOA.
Kirk Cousins is often a target of criticism, but his history in the postseason (1-3) and against teams with winning records (10-40 in his career vs. teams that ended the season with a winning record) isn't encouraging when considering Minnesota's Super Bowl chances.
#3. San Francisco 49ers (Current Super Bowl Odds: +550)
As we enter the NFL postseason, the San Francisco 49ers captured the NFC West division crown and have remarkably won ten straight. The Niners boast a ferocious defense that's allowing the NFL's fewest yards and points per game. San Fran also has a history of strong postseason runs under head coach Kyle Shanahan, as they reached the NFC Conference Championship Game last year and reached the Super Bowl in 2019.
This squad has a great playoff pedigree, a proven head coach, a stout defensive unit, and they have won 10 in a row...so why are we worried?
One simple word: injuries. The Niners have been decimated by injuries in 2022. Their dynamic playmaker Deebo Samuel went down in Week 14 and will return for the playoffs. Despite their current high level of play, the San Fran defense is missing key players with defensive backs Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett on IR, and stalwarts such as Javon Kinlaw, Hassan Ridgeway, and Arik Armstead are in different phases of banged up.
After a season-ending injury to quarterback Trey Lance in Week 2, replacement starter Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a broken foot in Week 13 and has only a "way outside chance" to return in the postseason, per HC Kyle Shanahan.
The team is currently on their third starting quarterback of the season with rookie Brock Purdy, a player that was literally Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft. Purdy has played well since taking the helm for the injured Jimmy G. but we all know the postseason is a different animal.
#4. Baltimore Ravens (Current Super Bowl Odds: +3500)
With Lamar Jackson currently sidelined as of this writing, the present and immediate future look fairly cloudy. That said, with a record of 10-7, the Ravens have the respect of the sportsbooks with 35-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Assuming Jackson returns to the lineup and is healthy to go for the playoffs, this Ravens squad should be considered dangerous thanks to Jackson's ability to basically win games on his own, as well as their excellent and experienced head coach, John Harbaugh.
Harbaugh has put together an illustrious career in Baltimore that includes a Super Bowl win in 2012. However, Harbaugh and the Ravens have found little postseason success in recent years, as Baltimore has failed to advance past the Divisional round of the playoffs since that 2012 Super Bowl victory and has accumulated a playoff record of just 1-3 since 2018.
#5. Kansas City Chiefs (Current Super Bowl Odds: +350)
Ok...we had to have at least one big-time favorite on this list. Of the three teams that currently have lower than 5-1 odds to win the Super Bowl – the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs – I decided to go with defense as the tiebreaker to determine which team is most likely to come up short in the playoffs.
While Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and Philadelphia ranks seventh, Kansas City grades out at just 25th in the league. The Chiefs stand 18th or worse in the league in average total yards, passing yards, and points allowed per game.
Sure, Patrick Mahomes and this high-octane offense that averages 29.5 points per game certainly have the ability to simply outscore any and all opponents that stand in the way of a Super Bowl championship, though it's not an ideal recipe for postseason success.
The Chiefs have allowed an average of 25.5 points over their two most recent regular-season losses, which came at the hands of fellow Super Bowl hopefuls Buffalo and Cincinnati. This inability to get consistent stops against good offenses could prove to be a fatal flaw in the postseason, especially in a stacked AFC conference.
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