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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 1 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 8/05/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
The EPL is back and so are we with a full range of soccer coverage. From DFS to weekly and betting, RotoBaller is your home for soccer this season. And we have an unusually early start to the season due to the World Cup taking place midseason for the first time. So we can kick things off even earlier than normal this year, which is never a bad thing.
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 0-0
- Total picks: 0-0
- Parlays: 40-0
- ROI: N/a
Before we commence, I like to take things slow in the early goings until we can get a clearer picture of how things are going. So in lieu of my weekly parlays, I'll be offering up season-long bets at the end of the article.
Friday, August 5th, 2022
Arsenal (-124) at Crystal Palace (+371) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Arsenal
Crystal Palace had a solid campaign last season, finishing 12th and only missed out on a top-half finish by three points. They only lost four home games last season, picking up 29 of their 48 points at home, which included a comprehensive 3-0 victory against Arsenal in April.
Arsenal's inconsistencies and disappointing away form (nine losses on the road) ultimately cost them a top-four finish and Champions League football. But they have invested well this offseason as they look to force their way back into Europe's elite club competition.
Betting pick: To score anytime - Gabriel Jesus (+180) o.5 units
Jesus has been electric in preseason, scoring goals for fun and linking up with the Arsenal attacking midfielders like he's been playing with them for years. Alex Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang both scored on their Arsenal debut in recent times and Jesus looks like a good shout to follow suit.
Player to watch: Gabriel Jesus
After losing Aubameyang and Lacazette last season, both of whom were in very poor form, it was vital Arsenal brought in a top-tier striker. And they certainly did that, bringing in the Manchester City forward for a deal worth around $55m. He scored seven goals in five preseason games and already looks like he could be the key for any success Arsenal has.
Saturday, August 6th, 2022
Liverpool (-309) at Fulham (+928) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 0 - 2 Liverpool
Fulham are becoming the premier yo-yo team with promotion from the Championship followed by immediate relegation twice in the last five years. If they finish in the bottom three, it'll be a third straight such occurrence. And you have to think they'll need to invest in the playing squad a bit more to prevent that happening.
Liverpool missed out on the Premier League title on the final day last season. They did pick up the Community Shield last weekend, beating Manchester City 3-1. The loss of Sadio Mane will be tough but they replaced him with Darwin Nunez and will have a full season of Luiz Diaz to more than compensate.
Betting pick: Handicap - Liverpool -1.5 (-120) 1 unit
Liverpool looked in midseason form during their Community Shield victory and should have too much firepower for Fulham. Opening Days haven't been kind to Fulham in prior seasons, losing 2-0 and 3-0 at home in their last two Premier League openers.
Player to watch: Darwin Nunez
Liverpool spent over $80m to bring in Nunez and he came off the bench to score for Liverpool in the Community Shield last week. Mane scored 16 EPL goals last season, so Nunez will need to at least come close to that if Liverpool are to mount a Premier League title challenge.
Aston Villa (+106) at Bournemouth (+283) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 2 Aston Villa
After two seasons away, Bournemouth secured promotion back to the Premier League, led by manager Scott Parker who was in charge of Fulham the last two times they suffered relegation. Bournemouth are the bookmakers favorite for relegation this season and they have only made one notable signing this preseason.
After a dreadful start to the season, Aston Villa finished 14th but only managed two wins in their final 11 games, both against relegated teams. They'll want to get off to a better start this time around and having talisman Phillipe Coutinho for a full season could be the difference between a relegation battle or a top-10 finish.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-115) 0.5 units
While I'm not sure Bournemouth will be able to avoid relegation and their lack of investment leaves them languishing behind, they should still cause teams problems, especially at home. Villa should have enough firepower to take home the points but I don't see either team keeping a clean sheet here.
Player to watch: Dominic Solanke
A lot of what happens to Bournemouth this season will depend on Solanke. He scored 29 goals in 46 games last season to spearhead Bournemouth's promotion from the Championship and if he can score ~15 goals this season, they could defy the odds and keep themselves up this season.
Wolves (+222) at Leeds United (+141) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Wolves
Leeds come into the season having lost two of their star players in Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha. But they reinvested the ~$120m they recouped from those two players in some young exciting players as they seek to avoid a repeat of last season, where they avoided relegation on the final day.
Wolves finished 10th last season, largely down to their defense which conceded the fewest goals of any team outside of the top- four. But they scored fewer goals than all teams outside the bottom three and will need to improve that if they are to finish in the top-10 for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+237) 0.5 units
Leeds is a different animal under Jesse Marsch and losing Phillips and Raphinha. But should be tougher to beat than they were for most of last season. Wolves appear like they'll be similar to last season, finding goals hard to come by but being solid defensively. I can see this one being goalless but a draw in such a tight-looking game seems the best choice.
Player to watch: Ruben Neves
After being heavily linked with a move away from Wolves, interest in Neves seems to have cooled and he's set to play a key role in Wolves' bid for another top-1o finish. He's only got nine goals and three assists over the last two seasons but can control games from the middle of the park and will play an important part in any attacking threat Wolves carry.
Nottingham Forest (+482) at Newcastle United (-152) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest
The world's richest club hasn't made much of a splash in the transfer market so far but will still be expecting to challenge for the European places this season. After winning 12 of their last 18 league games last season, they should be full of confidence heading into this campaign.
Nottingham Forest returns to the Premier League for the first time since 1999 after their playoff win last season. And they certainly seem keen to stay for the long-term having shelled out more than $100m on players, including breaking their transfer record twice already.
Betting pick: To win to nil - Newcastle United (+172) - 0.5 units
Since New Year's Day, Newcastle has played nine home EPL games. They kept a clean sheet in four of them and only conceded one in the other five games. They should have enough at the other end of the pitch to trouble the Premier League new boys and start the season as they ended the last one.
Player to watch: Callum Wilson
Wilson finished as Newcastle's top scorer last season, despite missing more than half their games through injury. He averages better than a goal per start since joining Newcastle in 2020 and will be keen to show enough form to get into England's World Cup squad in November.
Southampton (+786) at Tottenham (-272) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Southampton
Tottenham has been the league's second biggest spenders, although Yves Bissouma looks like the only newcomer who will make it into the first XI to start the season. They'll still be heavily reliant on Harry Kane and Son Heung-min to score enough goals to repeat their top-four finish of last season.
Southampton had their fifth straight bottom-half finish last season and have only bought in some young players who are unlikely to help much this season. The 43 away goals they conceded last campaign was the most in the league and it's difficult to see where that will improve this season.
Betting pick: Handicap - Tottenham -1.5 (+110) 0.5 units
I fear for Southampton this season and they look like they will need James Ward-Prowse to provide more set-piece magic than ever before if they are to keep out of danger. But they will still leak goals and the Tottenham pairing of Kane and Son will be licking their lips at the start they've been given.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
In 13 EPL games against Southampton, Son has 10 goals and four assists. He's scored or assisted in his last five home games against Southampton and after finishing last season tied with Mo Salah on 23 goals as the leading scorer, he'll be looking to get his goal tally up and running this weekend.
Chelsea (-140) at Everton (+428) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Everton 0 - 1 Chelsea
Everton fans will still be rejoicing after they managed to avoid relegation last season. But they will likely have little optimism heading into this season. They sold last season's top scorer Richarlison to Tottenham for ~$65m and have only brought in two players from relegated Burnley so far.
Chelsea look set to be rebuilding for a title challenge but look well short of where they need to be if they are to challenge for the league. There hasn't been much harmony coming out of their camp with Head Coach Thomas Tuchel seemingly unhappy with a number of their current squad.
Betting pick: Total goals - under 2.5 (-105) 0.5 units
The only way Everton will keep away from relegation worries will be their home form and if they can be difficult to beat, they might manage to stave off relegation again. But while they may prove a tough nut to crack, scoring goals might not come easy and even though Chelsea isn't quite where they want to be, they should still be able to tough out a win. Regardless, I don't see many goals in this one.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Sterling is the marque signing for Chelsea so far and they'll be keen for him to lead their attack which lacked goals for much of last season. He does have five goals and one assist in his last ten EPL games against Everton and will want to make a good first impression for his new club.
Sunday, August 7th, 2022
Brentford (+281) at Leicester City (-101) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 1 Brentford
It was a largely disappointing season for Leicester but they finished the campaign strongly and ended up taking eighth place and will be expecting something similar this year. If Jamie Vardy can remain healthy this season, they should be able to compete for a European Competition place again.
Brentford's good start to last season ultimately helped them avoid being involved in a relegation battle. Christian Eriksen had a huge impact for them in the few months he was at the club and will be a big loss this season, especially as Brentford hasn't done anything to replace him.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Leicester City (-101) 0.5 units
Brentford is another team I'm worried about this year. A great start to last season ultimately kept them away from relegation, helped by the midseason signing of Eriksen. Leicester's 34 points at home last season was topped by only five teams and they beat Brentford 2-1 twice last campaign. They should be able to make it a hat-trick of wins against them.
Player to watch: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Dewsbury-Hall had a quietly impressive debut season for Leicester last year and will look to build on that this time around. He's a threat when deployed higher up the pitch and if he can add a bit more of a cutting edge, could have a real breakout season.
Brighton (+545) at Manchester United (-177) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Brighton
It's hard to make out what Manchester United is doing. They look like they have a manager for the long-term in Erik ten Hag but have yet to truly back him in the transfer market and question marks still hang over the future of Cristiano Ronaldo. Last season was Manchester United's worst in the Premier League and something drastic will need to change to avoid a repeat.
Brighton humbled Manchester United back in May, beating them 4-0 at home, the highlight of their season. Bissouma was sold to Tottenham and Marc Cucurella looks set to depart also, while they haven't done much to address a lack of goals, with the 42 they scored last season being the fifth fewest.
Betting pick: Total goals range - 2-3 (+107) 0.5 units
I've played this game out multiple ways and no matter what I see happening, two or three goals always seem to be the outcome. I don't see Brighton managing to do better than nicking a goal somehow and Manchester United don't look like a team being able to dominate opponents but should still manage a win. A 1-0 victory for the home side is about the only way I envisage this bet not coming in.
Player to watch: Jadon Sancho
After moving to Manchester United last preseason for a fee around $90m, Sancho didn't really get much of a chance to shine last year. But he's shown good form in the preseason friendlies, scoring three times and looks poised to play a key role for Manchester United this season.
Manchester City (-265) at West Ham United (+754) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 2 Manchester City
West Ham's seventh-place finish was enough to see them qualify for this season's Europa Conference, although picking up just five points from their last seven games will have left fans wondering what might have been. They did nearly ruin Manchester City's title challenge last season, but squandered a 2-0 lead to ultimately draw 2-2 back in May.
The reigning champions may have sold Jesus and Sterling, but replaced them with England international Kalvin Phillips and Europe's hottest striker, Erling Haaland. They don't look done in the transfer market either and start the season favorites to retain their title.
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+124) 0.5 units
West Ham proved a handful against Manchester City on the penultimate weekend of last season and scored in all 19 home games. In 12 of those games, this bet would have cashed and I don't see any reason why we don't see a similar sort of game played out here.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
Haaland was overshadowed in the Community Shield last weekend by Liverpool's new signing Nunez. But it was one game, and not exactly the most competitive. Manchester City can take time getting into form to begin a season but Haaland is one of the best finishers in world football and I don't imagine it'll take him long to score his first goal for City.
Parlay
Moneyline: Leicester City, Newcastle United, and Tottenham to win (+351) 0.5 units
Season Long Bets
Top 4 finish: Arsenal (+145) 1 unit
Relegation: Brentford (+260) 1 unit & Everton (+350) 1 unit
Top 10 finish: Wolves (+225) 1 unit
Top scorer: Erling Haaland (+275) 1 unit & Gabriel Jesus (+1143) 0.5 units
Points totals: Arsenal over 64.5 & Crystal Palace over 46.5 (+208) 1 unit
Points totals: Brighton under 48.5 & Southampton under 39.5 (+208) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
