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Dan's 2025 fantasy football quarterback avoids and draft busts. His overvalued QBs and ADP busts, including Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and more.
In just over two weeks, we will finally be enjoying real NFL football. Training camps have flown by, and fantasy drafts are already underway.
As satisfying as it is to identify sleepers and upside plays in fantasy, one of the most valuable things you can do as a drafter is avoid the landmine players that can destroy your lineup. Injuries can happen to anybody, but taking a player who fails to meet expectations can be devastating to fantasy success.
That is especially true at the quarterback position, a lineup spot that is typically reserved for just one player in most leagues (sorry SuperFLEX fans, I still love you). Below you’ll find my top five quarterback avoids in 2025. For this article, all ADP is pulled from Sleeper redraft leagues with PPR scoring settings.
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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 53.7, QB6
Fantasy managers are once again excited about Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football despite two years of the veteran quarterback failing to hit ADP. From 2018 to 2022 (five seasons), Mahomes never finished lower than the QB6 in fantasy, averaging 4,791.4 yards, 38.4 touchdowns, and 9.6 interceptions per season.
However, Kansas City’s play style has shifted over the last two seasons, leading to a safer brand of football that wins games but not fantasy matchups. Mahomes has back-to-back seasons with 18.4 fantasy points per game. He’s finished as the QB10 and QB11 in those seasons.
During that stretch, he’s seen a similar amount of pass attempts per season (589 vs. 591), but is averaging over 700 fewer yards (4,055.5) and roughly 12 fewer touchdowns per season (26.5). The Chiefs have also brought his targets closer to the line of scrimmage, cutting his yards per attempt from 8.1 at the start of his career to 6.9 the last two seasons. It certainly hasn't helped that his deep passing was inconsistent last season, reducing the big plays that lead to touchdowns in the Chiefs' offense.
The Chiefs are concerned with making and winning the Super Bowl, not putting up gaudy numbers in the passing attack. They will continue to control games with quick passing and the rushing attack while their defense plays at a high level.
Given his lack of high-end rushing ability, Mahomes needs to throw for touchdowns to finish as a top-6 fantasy quarterback. There just aren’t many ways that Mahomes gets there unless the offense completely changes its identity in 2025.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 67.2, QB7
Baker Mayfield was arguably the late-round quarterback skeleton key in fantasy in 2024. Mayfield set career-highs in pass attempts (570), passing yards (4,500), completion percentage (71.4%), rushing yards (378), passing touchdowns (41), and yards per attempt (7.9) last season. He finished as the QB4 in fantasy points per game (22.5) thanks to a high-volume passing offense led by Liam Coen.
Baker Mayfield puts it on the money right down the hash pic.twitter.com/R9pcpF0lvs
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 1, 2024
Prior to 2024, Mayfield had just one season with a completion percentage above 64% and 3,900 passing yards. He had never thrown for over 30 touchdowns in a season nor finished higher than QB17 in fantasy.
Heading into 2025, Mayfield will be working with his third offensive coordinator in three seasons after Liam Coen took the Jaguars’ head coaching job. His new coordinator, Josh Grizzard, was with Tampa Bay in 2024, but has never called plays at the NFL level. Mayfield is also set to be without Chris Godwin (ankle) and star left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) to start the season. Those are two significant losses for an offense coming off one of the most efficient offensive seasons in 2024.
There are still reasons to be optimistic about Mayfield in 2025. The Buccaneers return Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. They also used a first-round pick on Emeka Egbuka to help offset the amount of time they will be without Godwin to start the season.
Mayfield has also proven over the last two seasons that he is one of the pocket passing quarterbacks in the NFL. However, he will also need to overcome the change in play caller and the injured personnel around him to produce a similar season to pay off at his ADP. That is a difficult bet to make.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
ADP: 90.5, QB9
Jared Goff doesn’t get the respect he deserves as a passer. Over the last three seasons, Goff has averaged a 68.1% completion rate, 4,547.3 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 10.3 interceptions per season. He hasn’t finished lower than the QB14 in fantasy points per game (2022) and is coming off a career-best QB7 finish in 2024 (19.8).
Jared Goff uncorked this one 😳 pic.twitter.com/13yVGLedVs
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 22, 2024
Detroit returns as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and David Montgomery all remain. However, despite the returning talent, there are reasons to question whether Goff can once again deliver a top-10 finish as a fantasy quarterback.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is now the head coach of the Chicago Bears, which means John Morton will be calling the plays in Detroit. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but there could be some growing pains as a new coordinator tries to figure out the best way to improve the offense.
A more significant loss comes in the form of the interior offensive line. The Lions let veteran right guard Kevin Zeitler leave in free agency. Center Frank Ragnow also retired this offseason, forcing the team to move left guard Graham Glasgow to the center position. Glasgow struggled as a starter last season and now will be flanked by two players with minimal experience, 2024 sixth-round pick Christian Mahogany and 2025 second-round pick Tate Ratledge.
When pressured in 2024, Goff’s completion percentage dropped 26.1% compared to when he operated from a clean pocket (53.4% vs. 79.5%). His yards per attempt also dropped by 2.5 yards, and he threw just seven touchdowns with four interceptions on 188 pressured drop-backs.
The combination of a new offensive play caller and a completely different interior offensive line are reasons for concern with Goff’s current ADP. He has more than enough weapons to hit that outcome, but it is far less certain than it has been in recent years.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
ADP: 118.2, QB14
The hope was that C.J. Stroud would take the next step as both a real-life and fantasy quarterback after a strong rookie season in 2023. Stroud was the QB7 in fantasy points per game that season (18.7), throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Houston added Stefon Diggs to the passing attack to provide a veteran complement in the slot to Nico Collins and Tank Dell to help the rookie ascend in his second season.
Unfortunately, injuries at wide receiver and ineffectiveness along the offensive line led to underwhelming results.
Stroud threw for just 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his second season, finishing as the QB28 in fantasy points per game (13.7). The Texans only had one receiver (Tank Dell) play more than 12 games, and he spent most of the season recovering from a 2023 broken leg.
More concerning was the collapse of the offensive line. Houston allowed the highest-pressure rate in 2024 (37.1%) with the second-lowest clean pocket rate (56.8%). The constant pressure eventually made Stroud anxious in the pocket. He finished 27th among all quarterbacks (minimum 168 drop-backs) in completion percentage under pressure (46.3%).
Houston’s answer to the subpar offensive line play was to release or trade their two best players this offseason (Shaq Mason and Laremy Tunsil) and replace them with subpar veterans. The team’s passing attack will also consist of Collins, Christian Kirk, and second-round pick Jayden Higgins, a clear downgrade from last year’s group.
There is hope that a new offensive scheme can improve protection and the passing attack. However, there is also a chance that Stroud will once again be under fire in the pocket with subpar offensive line talent and more questionable receiving options. That makes his QB14 price a high one to pay.
Justin Fields, New York Jets
ADP: 149.2, QB18
Justin Fields has never thrown for more than 2,600 yards or 17 touchdowns in a season, yet he has two top 10 QB finishes under his belt thanks to his prolific ability to rush the football. Fields was the QB5 in points per game in 2022 (20.5) thanks to 160 carries for 1,143 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He followed that up with a QB9 performance in 2023 (18.4) with 123 carries for 657 yards and four scores.
Fields led the Steelers to a 4-2 record last season before getting benched for Russell Wilson. Through six games, Fields was the QB7 (19.1 PPG), once again doing the bulk of his damage on the ground (62 carries for 289 yards and five touchdowns). While the passing stats were encouraging (65.8% completion rate for 1,106 yards and five touchdowns with one interception), the same problems persisted.
Hope sprang anew again for 2025 when Fields was signed by the Jets to be their starting quarterback. Unfortunately, this summer has proven to be an absolute disaster for the Jets' passing attack thanks to Fields’s struggles. The Jets want to run the ball and have very little pass game weaponry outside of Garrett Wilson. Fields hasn’t done much throughout training camp to change their minds.
Awful: Every Justin Fields throw and run against the Giants in tonight's preseason game.
• 1-5
• 0 TDs
• 0 INTs
• 4 yards
• 39.6 passer ratingFields looked bad really bad 😬pic.twitter.com/SkCY98DLrd
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 17, 2025
In reality, Fields will provide a steady rushing floor behind a strong offensive line in New York. That was never in doubt. But a legitimately poor preseason has opened the questions on how long his leash will be for a new coaching staff looking to make an impact in a big city market.
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