2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers To Watch

May 27, 2026

Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge from Colonial CC. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.

If last week at TPC Craig Ranch was a full-throttle birdie fest that allowed players to freely lean on power and aggressive scoring, this week marks a complete stylistic shift as the PGA Tour returns to one of its most demanding and nuanced examinations at Colonial Country Club. Narrow fairways, small greens, and a premium on positional control off the tee quickly strip away the freedom players enjoyed in McKinney, replacing it with a far more surgical test that rewards patience, precision, and disciplined decision-making from start to finish.

This week also brings an influx in talent. 8 of the World's Top 20 are here compared to the two last week. With the field strength rising and the test tightening considerably, this week should offer a far cleaner signal when it comes to identifying legitimate win equity.

But how does this eclectic field stack up at the top -- and who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge!

No. 10 - Ben Griffin

It’s now been 12 months since Ben Griffin’s breakthrough victory at Colonial, and in that time, the Chapel Hill native has established himself as a legitimate fixture at the game’s highest level.

The form he carried into the start of the year was quick to fade through the opening months of 2026, however. Whether it was fatigue from a loaded 2025 campaign or simple regression to the mean, Griffin managed just one top-20 finish and three missed cuts across his first 11 starts of the new season.

Since returning to New Orleans to defend his Zurich title, however, signs of life have begun to emerge once again for the former Tar Heel. He recorded a 10th-place finish alongside partner Andrew Novak in Louisiana, followed by a third-place showing at Doral and another top-15 finish at Aronimink.

While the recent results suggest a return to the level he displayed 12 months ago, the underlying numbers still leave much to be desired. Across his last 24 rounds, Griffin ranks outside the top 100 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and just 89th when combining his driving and iron play.

With those deficiencies persisting in his ball-striking profile, the putter has been forced to carry much of the burden during this resurgence. And while Griffin has been spectacular on the greens -- gaining an average of 3.82 strokes per tournament across his last five starts -- putting alone is unlikely to sustain the level he once reached.

Given his long-term profile, it would hardly be surprising to see things click back into place in short order for the talented North Carolinian. But for now, I’ll take a wait-and-see approach before fully buying into this recent run of form.

No. 9 - Sungjae Im

Sungjae Im opens with birdie thanks to this speedy chip-in from past the 1st green 🎯

📺 Golf Channel | @CJByronNelson pic.twitter.com/ioNp1ugi8t

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 23, 2026

After spending much of the last three years in the doldrums of professional golf, Sungjae Im is beginning to show signs of a resurgence in 2026. While he still lacks the week-in, week-out consistency that defined his peak years earlier this decade, three top-10 finishes over the last two months have offered a far more optimistic outlook on his ceiling.

In particular, Sungjae’s driving and short game appear to be returning to peak form. He ranks inside the top 30 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 12th when combining his chipping and putting over the last 24 rounds.

And while Im’s iron play still lags behind the rest of his profile, perhaps a return to comfortable confines can help him rediscover some of his past form on approach. Here at Colonial, Sungjae has recorded three top-15 finishes in five starts since 2020, gaining over three strokes on approach in his most recent appearance here two years ago.

If the irons can simply trend back toward field average this week, the rest of Im’s profile is more than strong enough to contend at a venue that places such a premium on precision and patience.

No. 8 - Alex Smalley

Two weeks removed from the best opportunity of his career to date at a marquee victory, you could easily argue this ranking still undersells Alex Smalley’s current form. He carried himself admirably as the man to beat on Sunday afternoon at Aronimink, ultimately closing with an even-par 70 to finish in a tie for second. And that stint atop the PGA Championship leaderboard is far from the only highlight in Smalley’s recent body of work.

Entering the PGA Championship, the former Duke Blue Devil had already recorded five consecutive finishes of 21st or better -- including two in Signature Events and another two here in the state of Texas.

As has been the case for much of his professional career, the iron play has remained the foundation of this surge. Smalley ranks eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds, and seventh from tee-to-green overall.

However, as reliable as the ball-striking has been, the primary catalyst behind this recent leap has come on the greens. For the first time in his nearly five years on Tour, Smalley has gained strokes putting in five consecutive starts, most recently posting the best putting performance of his career on the bentgrass greens at Aronimink.

Still just 29 years old, it’s entirely possible that Smalley is beginning to turn a corner at the professional level. On recent form, he profiles as a legitimate top-25 player in the world, and he may only be a few more starts away from fully cementing himself as one of the breakout stars of the 2026 season.

While an outright price around 30-1 may create some sticker shock for those accustomed to seeing him in triple digits, there’s simply nothing in the current profile to suggest he isn’t every bit the top-10 field-adjusted player the market now believes him to be.

No. 7 - Hideki Matsuyama

And just like that Hideki Matsuyama moves to 3-under with an eagle on No. 16. 🦅#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/3z1zqoI4Ez

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 16, 2026

While 2026 has been far from the most consistent season of Hideki Matsuyama’s illustrious career, flashes of his elite traits still make him an enticing upside proposition whenever he tees it up. Despite recording just one top-20 finish across his last eight starts, Matsuyama remains one of the elite players in this field both on approach and around the greens. Perhaps even more intriguing, however, has been the steady progression he’s made with the putter.

Through the first five months of the 2026 season, Matsuyama has performed as an above-average putter on the PGA Tour, gaining 0.097 strokes per round across 43 measured rounds. His current ranking of 66th in Strokes Gained: Putting would represent the best mark of his entire 13-year PGA Tour career, and the bentgrass greens at Colonial align agronomically with many of his preferred putting surfaces throughout the years (+0.07 strokes per round across his last 36 rounds on bentgrass).

Of course, the driver has been the club most responsible for Matsuyama’s muted recent results, as he’s lost a combined 10.4 strokes off the tee across his last four starts alone. It is worth noting, however, that Hideki recorded the second-best driving performance of his 2025 season here at Colonial one year ago (+1.97), and has historically thrived on positional layouts such as Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and Waialae.

Given the strength of the rest of his profile, it likely won’t take much cooperation from the driver to propel the 2021 Masters champion back into the throes of contention.

No. 6 - Ryo Hisatsune

One of the few players in this field to tackle both legs of the post-PGA Texas double, Ryo Hisatsune’s T19 finish at Craig Ranch earns him another appearance in these weekly rankings -- despite the considerably deeper field awaiting in Fort Worth.

Hisatsune’s third full season on the PGA Tour has undoubtedly been the most successful of his young career. The 23-year-old has climbed to a career-high world ranking of 55 while recording six top-20 finishes against just one missed cut through his first 15 starts of the season.

This week, the Okayama native returns to a venue that produced one of the brighter moments of his 2025 campaign. Rounds of 66-67-71-69 kept him inside the top 10 throughout the week at Colonial, ultimately culminating in a T6 finish -- five shots behind champion Ben Griffin.

In the process, Hisatsune recorded the second-best short-game performance of his PGA Tour career, gaining a combined 6.72 strokes through his chipping and putting. And entering this year’s edition, he arrives in the best ball-striking form of his professional life.

Across his last 50 rounds, Hisatsune ranks sixth in this field when combining his driving and approach play, gaining an average of 3.2 strokes per tournament in that span. And as we discussed ahead of Craig Ranch last week, those numbers carry additional weight given the level of competition against which they were accumulated.

He gained 5.5 strokes ball-striking in his first major championship start of the season at Aronimink, and another 7.7 against the elite field at TPC Sawgrass earlier this spring.

Hisatsune possesses both the ball-striking precision and short-game upside required to contend on a positional test like Colonial. And for those unwilling to buy into the very top of this week’s odds board, the Japanese star stands out as one of the clearest values on the board at 45-1.

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No. 5 - J.J. Spaun

There’s likely nothing in J.J. Spaun’s career that will ever match his breakout 2025 campaign, but after a relatively slow start to the new year, it appears he is close to rediscovering the form that saw him climb as high as fifth in the world rankings.

Over his last 30 rounds, only Ludvig Åberg can match Spaun’s ball-striking output, and when combined with his elite positional acumen, there’s a strong argument that he profiles as an even cleaner fit for Colonial than many of the game’s higher-profile names. He currently ranks 15th in this field in Driving Accuracy and 7th in Good Drive Percentage.

While his precision off the tee is a major strength in this field, it is not even the primary driver of his recent surge. Spaun’s iron play has quietly been among the best on Tour over the last three months, gaining strokes in each of his last nine starts while ranking 4th overall at +0.81 strokes per round.

Of course, legitimate questions remain on the greens, as Spaun has lost strokes putting in five of his last seven starts. But when the putter has cooperated, the results have followed -- including a win at the Valero Texas Open in April and a top-five finish at Quail Hollow earlier this month.

Notably, his best putting performance at Colonial came 12 months ago during a T6 finish. If that proves even partially predictive this time around, Spaun has a very real path to a second win in two tries this season in the Lone Star State.

No. 4 - Russell Henley

While his combination of elite driving accuracy and historical comfort on similarly positional layouts will make Russell Henley an undoubtedly popular name this week, his general inconsistencies in 2026 add some hesitation to his case as the second favorite on the board.

Given the lofty heights he reached in 2025 -- a win at the API, top-10 finishes in three of the four majors, and an additional five top-10s in Signature Events -- there was a legitimate argument to be made for Henley as a top-five player in the world entering 2026.

However, the falloff has been more pronounced than expected through the first five months of the season, particularly in one of his most reliable historical strengths.

After finishing five of the last six seasons inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Henley is currently languishing outside the top 80 on Tour with his iron play. Over his last 30 rounds, he ranks 55th in this field and has actually lost strokes with his irons in seven of his last nine starts.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to like in Henley’s profile this week. He still leads this field in driving accuracy, and his long-term proximity splits continue to place him among the best short-iron players in this range. While his bentgrass putting numbers leave plenty to be desired, he has shown the ability to handle these greens in the past -- gaining over three strokes putting en route to a T16 finish here in 2023. I'm just weary that his current status in market is pricing in much more of the player we saw in 2025 than the current iteration.

We’ve been waiting for the full re-emergence of Justin Thomas since his return from an extended injury layoff in Orlando, and over the last two weeks, he’s shown clear signs that he’s once again capable of contending on the game’s biggest stages.

In two of the strongest fields of the season to date (the Truist Championship and PGA Championship), Thomas has posted finishes of 13th and 4th respectively -- his best back-to-back finishes winning the Heritage and coming runner-up at Philadelphia Cricket Club last spring.

Although the results are beginning to resemble the JT we’re accustomed to seeing, the underlying profile tells a more complicated story. Across his last 24 rounds, Thomas still sits outside the top 80 in this field on approach, losing strokes in the aggregate, while his putter has accounted for gains of 3.57 and 6.98 strokes across his last two starts.

The question, then, is which side of the equation is more likely to normalize this week. Thomas has long been regarded as one of the premier iron players in the world, and did flash his best approach performance in recent memory last start at Aronimink (+2.46), his strongest outing since gaining 5.57 strokes at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier in the year.

But with that potential regression still looming in the ball-striking -- and a putter that has historically been volatile in its own right -- Thomas remains one of the highest-upside propositions in the field. If both sides of the profile align, he has every chance to play his way into the center of contention.

Despite a T60 at last week’s PGA Championship, Rickie Fowler will end the month of May as one of the Tour’s most in-form commodities. With three top-10 finishes in his last three starts (RBC Heritage, Cadillac, Truist), and five top-16 finishes in 12 career appearances at Colonial, this week could represent an ideal spot to cap off a strong early-season stretch.

By the numbers, there isn't much to dislike in Rickie's profile. He sits as one of the more reliable drivers of the ball in this field (27th in Driving Accuracy; 17th in Good Drive Percentage), and across his last 36 rounds, is one of just three players at Colonial to sit inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained with both his approach play and his putting.

Returning to one of his most favorable agronomic setups in bentgrass, and to green complexes where he gained over six strokes on the field in last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, the fit remains as strong as ever. The last time he showed this kind of sustained form was in the months leading up to his 2023 Rocket Classic win. Maybe, like back then, a slightly weaker field is all he needs to pay off this run of play with another trip to victory lane.

I’ve been firmly aboard the Aberg wagon as he’s stacked up six top-eight finishes across his last nine starts. And while a true Sunday breakthrough has yet to arrive to fully silence the remaining doubts, the Swede continues to produce a ball-striking profile that sits comfortably alongside the very best players in the game.

Through the first five months of the season, Åberg has gained over 1.5 strokes per round from tee-to-green -- a figure only surpassed by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy over that span.

More recently, he’s taken that level even higher, producing the most sustained stretch of form we’ve seen since he arrived on Tour three years ago: seven top-eight finishes in eight starts, while effectively doubling the strokes-gained output of the next-best player in the field from tee to green in that window: J.J. Spaun (+2.00 vs. +1.04).

Until he breaks through for that long-awaited first win of 2026, questions will naturally persist about his ability to close. But the underlying profile is not meaningfully different from what we’ve seen in comparable dominance runs from elite players -- including stretches we’ve recently seen from Scottie Scheffler himself.