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Chris looks at 2025 fantasy baseball prospect fallers and potential busts. He analyzes MLB prospects from the Arizona Fall League and their fantasy values.
Another Arizona Fall League is in the books. It is hard to believe there is now no baseball until Spring Training, but here we are. There is a lot to take away from the Arizona Fall League, but knowing what to look for is also essential. You can check my article at my site, The Dynasty Dugout about the Arizona Fall League Hitting Environment and what matters. I would love for you to check that out.
For reference, the AFL league average slash line was .270/.373/.434, and teams averaged 6.3 runs per game. The run environment was insane, and the hitters' performances should be compared accordingly.
Putting the caveat out there, that numbers in the AFL are not relevant. A player's value should never really change based on performance in the Arizona Fall League. There are certain things I am looking for in the AFL, though, when it comes to scouting players. When a player had a bad regular season and it carries over into the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League, it is usually a big red flag.
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Fantasy Baseball Prospect Hitters - AFL Fallers
Brock Wilken, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
To put it nicely, 2024 was rough for Brock Wilken. His season got off to a bad start when he was drilled in the face by a pitch on April 11. He returned quicker than expected, returning to game action on May 4.
Wilken did, however, put up respectable numbers through the end of July, having a .236/.336/.430 with 14 home runs and 13 doubles in 75 games. He struck out in just 24 percent of plate appearances and walked over 12 percent of the time with a 74 percent contact rate.
Something drastic happened in his final 34 games from August 1 forward. Wilken hit just .116, which dropped his season-long line below the Mendoza line, and he had just three home runs over that span. The strikeout rate spiked to 37 percent, and the contact rate plummeted to 63 percent.
The AFL was sadly more of the same, as Wilken punched out in 38 percent of plate appearances and posted an uninspiring .155/.260/.310 slash line. If any hitter needed a big fall league, it was Wilken, and he failed to do so.
Xavier Isaac, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Xavier Isaac's 2024 season was a tale of two halves centered around a wrist injury. Prior to his injury, Isaac had a .310/.395/.579 slash in 228 plate appearances, albeit a 27.6 percent strikeout rate. Coming back from injury and earning a promotion to Double-A, Isaac slashed .212/.343/.365 with a 40 percent strikeout rate.
Contact was a major concern this year, even before the injury. Overall, Isaac's contact rate dropped to around 60 percent, and the in-zone mark sat south of 70 percent. The contact woes carried over into the AFL, as Isaac struck out in 48 percent of plate appearances and had a sub-50 percent contact rate.
Sure, Isaac hits the ball extremely hard, and he is a good athlete for his size. But you have to make contact to make it work. You can blame the injury for the performance, but when you are still able to put up 115+ mph exit velocities, I have a hard time justifying the wrist still bothering him. We will need to see Isaac hit much more in 2025.
Here is the open face and behind the plate look at Xavier Isaac's home run tonight. 110 mph 💣 to dead center on a curveball down and in. pic.twitter.com/20vb70Wpql
— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) April 14, 2024
Jett Williams, SS/OF, New York Mets
Williams missed nearly the entire 2024 season due to a right wrist injury. Returning to action late in the year, Williams got 148 plate appearances, posting a .215/.358/.298 slash with zero home runs and nine extra-base hits. Heading to the Arizona Fall League, Williams showed more struggles as he struck out in 37.5 percent of plate appearances and slashed .225/.376/.388.
I don't necessarily think Williams is a big faller, just due to the lack of reps this year. He showed some strong things in the AFL, but the whiffs were an issue. It is almost as if Williams was being too passive, which has been a common theme in his career. Working deep into counts, Williams often finds himself in pitcher counts, which has led to a higher strikeout rate in the AFL.
Jett Williams, MI/CF, New York Mets
Williams had an impressive game yesterday, smoking a double and a long home run to left-center. The bat to ball skills are strong and Jett can put a charge into balls as we saw yesterday. pic.twitter.com/4Ge0Tcb62y
— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) November 1, 2024
Fantasy Baseball Prospect Pitchers - AFL Fallers
If we are being honest, no pitcher should be judged on performance in the Arizona Fall League. Pitches move differently in that environment, and hitters rake. You can just look at the stat line I mentioned at the start of the article and see all you need to know. With that being said, here are a couple of pitchers who I saw that showed some concerning things.
Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Connor Phillips had a rough 2024, to put it nicely. In 19 Triple-A starts and 78.2 innings, he had an 8.01 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP. That’s not good. The strikeout stuff ticked way back, and he walked over 15 percent of batters, eventually landing on the development list.
He has an athletic delivery and a big fastball that sits 96-97 on average with a nice life up in the zone, having 16 inches of IVB from a 6-foot-2 release height and seven inches of arm-side movement. Phillips’s sweeper is a plus pitch, showing nice depth and averaging nearly 13 inches of horizontal movement while sitting in the mid-80s. He also throws a solid curve and changeup.
There was some buzz around Phillips early in the fall, as he was sitting in the upper 90's and showing some dominance. In the starts I saw him, Phillips had no feel for the strike zone. He walked 14 batters in 19 innings, good for a mark north of 16 percent. While he struck out 26 batters and had a respectable 4.19 ERA, the walks were concerning.
Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Phillips struggled to find command yesterday but did have 6 whiffs and 2 K in 3 IP. Allowed just 1 hit and run, but walked 5.
FB: 96-98
SL: 84-87
CH: 90-91
CB: 83-85 pic.twitter.com/Ljvz1cQJOY— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) November 2, 2024
Carlos Lagrange, RHP, New York Yankees
Carlos Lagrange was on my list as one of the top arms I wanted to see in Arizona. Standing at 6-foot-7, Lagrange is armed with a big fastball and slider combo, and when I saw him, he posted the most Lagrange-esque stat line. He tossed 2.1 scoreless, no-hit innings. Lagrange did not strike out a batter and walked three.
For the fall, he walked 15 batters in 8.2 innings pitched despite posting a 2.08 ERA. There are a lot of reliever traits here. Lagrange can punish hitters with his 97-99 mph fastball and throws a slider in the upper 80s. He is a fun arm to watch, even if the command is sub-par.
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