Early-Round Fantasy Football Avoids: Overvalued Draft Picks for Best Ball - Drake London, Zay Flowers, Josh Jacobs, more

August 16, 2024

Nick's 2024 fantasy football overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds of best ball drafts. NFL players with inflated ADPs to avoid in fantasy football best ball drafts.

Those in best ball drafts don't need their early-round picks to smash every week, but they better have a great chance at it while also providing the firepower to finish at the top of their position. We don't typically want consistent, median outcomes here. Some of you might exclusively play 50/50 best ball double-ups but this is geared more towards tournament play.

While writing about sleepers and positive outcomes is entertaining, not every player's outlook can generate profits this season. And we want your sleeper picks to complement foundational building blocks from the early rounds to construct a juggernaut. Let's look at some names whose fantasy output may struggle to meet their draft-day cost.

Here we'll be looking at some studs who I think will underperform their average draft position (ADP) and fail to deliver for fantasy teams. It will be mentioned a couple of times but please note that being overvalued does not mean the player is bad/undraftable. If they fall a round or two, especially in such early rounds, then the math changes! All ADP data used for this article is from best ball formats from aggregate ADP as of July 07, 2024.

Drake London, ATL - WR10, 14.5 Underdog ADP

London is being drafted as the WR10 on Underdog and sits as the default 15th overall player on DraftKings. It is understandable and reasonable to be hyped around Atlanta moving on from Arthur Smith and getting a great pocket passer in Kirk Cousins. DJ Moore was last season’s half-PPR WR10 with 14 points per game, finishing with 96 catches for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, adding a rushing TD for good measure.

So a rough breakeven point here is either you believing he exceeds that or the field’s scoring slips where the WR10 production is not that high. Is his range of outcomes truly different from Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, and so on?

Yes, London had a robust 22% team target share in 2023. Still, Mack Hollins has been upgraded to Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud is popping in camp as a viable slot weapon, and Bijan Robinson/Kyle Pitts are expected to take their respective steps forward. This price bakes in most of London’s jump.

NFFC best ball ADP is around pick 27, which is far more palatable. His 21 ADP on FFPC is also okay.

Chris Olave, NO - WR11, 16.5 Underdog ADP

Olave may be on that earlier list but his 16.6 Underdog ADP and 19.9 DK ADP are only 2-3 slots behind London. At least he’s behind Collins and Adams on DK. But what sizeable leap are we projecting for last season’s WR19 (WR20 by half-PPR PPG)? If the market is placing this much faith in Derek Carr improving then how is he the QB28 on UD? Olave had three top-12 weeks in half-PPR scoring but no finishes higher than ninth.

Perhaps Carr does improve and the market simply has a massive blind spot. Does Michael Thomas being off of the team improve Olave’s outlook that much? Maybe that trio of games with 110 or more yards in his final six games of the season is closer to his 2024 median than originally thought. But selecting Olave in the top 20 when he was barely within that at his own position, let alone overall, last season makes it tough to see the vision.

12th in air yards share
17th in target share
18th in targets per route run
20th in average depth of target
21st in yards per route run
2023 per-game WR20

If you told me I could draft this guy as my WR2, I'd be stoked!

But why is Chris Olave going as the WR11 off the board?

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 10, 2024

Saquon Barkley, PHI - RB6, 20.5 Underdog ADP

Barkley, whose DraftKings ADP is 15.5 (!), has dealt with a myriad of injuries and poor play over his six-year career in New York, but can the Bronx native find new life in Philadelphia? With an Underdog ADP of 20 and a 15 ADP on DraftKings, it seems most think he will. After all, he managed 3.9 yards per carry behind the 2023 New York Giants offensive line, totaling over 300 opportunities in just 14 games.

But the 27-year-old will no longer be the clear focal point of his offense. Jalen Hurts is a clear goal-line threat, with the “Tush Push” proving an invaluable weapon. Some point to Jason Kelce’s retirement and say it won’t be as effective this year, but that’s a disservice to the rest of the line, the crux of the Brotherly Shove, and Richie Gray’s overall influence.

The left guard, Landon Dickerson, and the left tackle, Jordan Mailata, play a bigger role than most assume. Dickerson and Mailata squeeze down and give Hurts an avenue to follow a closing gate on the defensive line. And Barkley is so danged strong that his pushing behind may help Hurts compensate for the loss of Kelce.

All of this is to say that it’s tough to buy into that angle until we see it. PFF’s preseason offensive line ranks still have the Eagles at second, trailing only Detroit. Philly has two dynamite wide receivers, a healthy Dallas Goedert, and they drafted a versatile back in Will Shipley. At least they still don’t have a clear No. 3 receiver yet.

If Barkley steps into D'Andre Swift’s 278 opportunities and variance limits the number of times Barkley is halted at the one-yard line then he could win out. But then again, why is he going five picks ahead of De'Von Achane? A full round above Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry? Isiah Pacheco had 254 opportunities in 14 games with a similarly potent KC offense and is about two rounds behind Barkley. It doesn’t add up.

Zay Flowers, BAL - WR26, 36.2 Underdog ADP

Flowers had zero top-12 weekly finishes (in half or full PPR) in his first 11 games before exploding down the stretch. Some may say that’s just a rookie getting adjusted to the NFL and then blossoming. But his ascension perfectly coinciding with Mark Andrews’ season-ending injury cannot be ignored. Flowers was the half-PPR WR4, WR7, WR103, WR14, and WR9 in Weeks 12-17 (Week 13 BYE) without Andrews.

But Andrews is healthy and led the NFL with 13 red-zone targets when on the field in Weeks 2-10. He caught nine of those, resulting in six TDs. Flowers had one RZ TD on six targets over those nine games. Five games without Andrews saw him catch a pair of RZ TDs on five targets. Does Jackson have to progress beyond Andrews on his reads?

Zay Flowers red zone target share:

25% - Mark Andrews off the field
15% - Mark Andrews on the field https://t.co/isi7a9ZBlD

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 3, 2024

Plus, Derrick Henry reinvigorates a rushing attack that scrambled with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, and Melvin Gordon III after J.K. Dobbins was lost in Week 1. The optimist will say that Flowers is still only contending with Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and a fourth-round rookie in Devontez Walker for WR reps. But he’s likely still the fourth priority behind Lamar Jackson, Henry, and Andrews.

That’s a steep mountain to climb when the opportunity cost in most drafts is a top QB/TE, with others like George Pickens, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and Marquise Brown going 1 to 2 rounds later.

Josh Jacobs, GB - RB12, 52.7 Underdog ADP

Jacobs steps into Aaron Jones’ cleats as the RB1 in Green Bay, but Matt LaFleur has made it clear that he prefers a committee rotation there. They retained AJ Dillon and spent a Day Two pick on MarShawn Lloyd, giving them three enticing options after Patrick Taylor Jr. and Emanuel Wilson were the third pieces last year.

And then there’s needing the 26-year-old to rebound to his former self after averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry in Las Vegas last season. He forced a career-worst 28 missed tackles on 233 carries and only logged nine rushes of 10 yards or greater. Both of those figures could be doubled and they’d still be career lows.

So we have a running back coming off of a poor year fighting an uphill battle against a known coaching philosophy in an offense that reinforced said position in the draft, on a team with an extremely competent passing game with last year’s QB5. And he’s going ahead of backs who share the backfield with one other player such as Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, and so on? That doesn’t pass the market smell test.

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Josh Jacobs:

“I do think he’s very capable of being a high volume feature back where he’s getting the bulk of the carries, but we’ll see how it plays out.”

LaFleur on the RB rotation: “Typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys… pic.twitter.com/OrSCyZbIQZ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 29, 2024

Jayden Reed, GB - WR34, 54.9 Underdog ADP

Reed, much like Flowers, also had a stretch run amidst injuries to others that are anchoring recency bias. Aaron Jones had various injuries in 2023 and missed three-plus games between Weeks 11-14, only playing more than 60% of the snaps again in Week 18 and the playoffs. Luke Musgrave was out Weeks 12-17, with Christian Watson missing Weeks 14-17. Reed himself missed Week 16 before an electric 8-89-2 receiving line for WR4 honors in championship Week 17.

That massive performance in the championship week surely helps fuel his ADP boost thanks to recency bias. Not only that, but there’s another heuristic called the “peak-end rule” which refers to our tendency to hold onto intense moments based on the emotional peak experienced, as well as the end. Pleasant or unpleasant, our brains are simply wired this way and both Reed’s peak and end synced up with the emotional high of leading fantasy teams to glory.

And now Reed is the WR34 with an overall 54.7 Underdog ADP. Christian Watson (WR45, 73.1), Romeo Doubs (WR53, 104.7), and Dontayvion Wicks (WR60, 121.6) are priced several rounds behind him, as is Luke Musgrave (TE17, 150.3). Reed, Watson, and Doubs were healthy together between Weeks 7-13, with Reed standing as the WR18, Watson as the WR25, and Doubs as the WR30.

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