RADIO
Professional golf is full steam ahead on the rails to Augusta, but not before stopping in Orlando to play the King's event, The Arnold Palmer Invitational held annually at Bay Hill. This event once again receives signature status from the PGA Tour meaning we get to watch the top 50 players take on this difficult quintessential Florida test of golf.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and of course motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results, in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support, and good luck.
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#10. Matt Fitzpatrick
Coming in at #10 this week is Matt Fitzpatrick, a player in the midst of dealing with form inconsistencies but has dominated in the past at Bay Hill. He showed life in moments at the Cognizant Classic but could not seem to sustain any momentum. His iron play this season has been a letdown by his standards, but there is something about this course that seems to bring the best out of Fitzpatrick.
He gained strokes across the board at this event last year, and his T14 finish may have been somewhat disappointing by his standards at this event. Fitzpatrick finished inside the top 10 in four consecutive years from 2019-2022. The greens are the strand of ultra-slick Bermuda grass where he typically putts his best.
#9. Collin Morikawa
In full transparency, I was looking for a reason to leave Collin Morikawa out of my top-10 this week. 2024 has just been uninspiring to me as a bettor. It has been a familiar experience of watching one of the best ball strikers in the world continue to miss putts. Morikawa ranks near the bottom in every major putting category, including from 4-10 ft which is of utmost importance this season.
I just couldn't do it because this guy continues to be a spectacle to admire from 100-200 yards. He had two very quiet top-20 finishes in Califonia at Pebble Beach and the Riviera Country Club. Morikawa is coming off missing the cut at last year's API, but he's certainly looking to rekindle a little central Florida magic on the greens as he showcased a few years ago at the Concession when he gained nearly 5 strokes putting for the week.
Collin Morikawa gets it done at The Concession...#WGCWorkday #PGATour
pic.twitter.com/6iInZn8Atf— Sportsbook Review (@SBRReview) March 1, 2021
#8. Ludvig Aberg
My how times have changed quickly. I remember vividly talking up a young amateur college kid from Texas A&M who received a special invite to play in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year and had a +600 ticket on a top-20. That player was Ludvig Aberg, who is back this year and will now be teeing off as one of the players on the top of the oddsboard.
The driver is a lethal weapon for Aberg, but I have been pleasantly surprised with his somewhat overlooked elite iron play. Ludvig Aberg has gained strokes on approach in four consecutive starts which resulted in a T9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and a second-place finish at Pebble Beach. He's still eagerly looking for his big-time moment where he can assert himself as one of the premier players on the planet, and this could be a fantastic course fit for Aberg to get the job done.
#7. Justin Thomas
It felt like the entire golf betting community was all over Justin Thomas at the Genesis Invitational, which felt like a culmination point of emphasis on his return to being one of the best in the game. It went poorly for all of us, he bottomed out and missed the cut...terribly. Thomas lost strokes in all four areas and his West Coast swing which started with so much promise ended on a sour note.
Now Thomas is back in Florida, where he lives, and spends the majority of his time practicing. We should not be quick to forget how high we were on his form before one bad start where he was humbled by the difficulty of Riviera. Thomas can utilize his magical ability around the greens to often get himself out of trouble, and should be well suited on these tight Bermuda lies. He needs to get back to avoiding and mitigating bogeys if he wants to find himself in contention this week, but I am excited about his chances.
#6. Max Homa
Max Homa has played in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in every season from 2020-2023. His finishes have been T24, T10, T17, and T14. It's a golf course that has clearly fit the eye of Homa, who has dominated with his approach play by gaining a combined +18 strokes with his irons in the last 4 seasons at Bay Hill.
Homa has been excellent from 125-175 yards in his last 24 rounds and has really separated himself from the field when coming in from the rough. Players traditionally hit around 56% of the fairways at Bay Hill which is below the Tour average, and the scrambling rates have proven to be some of the most difficult we see all season. Homa has had a week to familiarize himself with Florida golf after competing in The Match last week which was held at The Park in Palm Beach, just a few hours south of Bay Hill.
Max's redemption. 🙌#CapitalOnesTheMatch pic.twitter.com/cETRANn4Ne
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 27, 2024
#5. Patrick Cantlay
You can summarize Patrick Cantlay's 2024 year by greatness in round 1 and disappointment in round 4. Cantlay has been on average eight strokes worse in the final round, which has been hard to imagine for a player once known for being unflappable and clutch on Sundays. The struggles still managed to produce a T11 and T4 in his last two starts and word came out that he was battling sickness in that final round at Riviera a few weeks ago.
He also finished in a tie for 4th place at the API last season and did so despite losing strokes putting on the week, which is always an impressive feat. There were only two players last season who finished in the top-10 while losing strokes putting, it was Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler. If Cantlay can't just manage to carry his form into the weekend and make some putts, then this could finally be the week we have been waiting for.
#4. Xander Schauffele
He doesn't make mistakes, he's one of the best ball strikers in the world, he's fantastic putting inside 10 feet, and he's been the most consistent player in the year 2024 with four top-20 finishes. The only problem is he just can't seem to turn these metrics into wins. I'm talking about Xander Schauffele, who will bring his excellent form to Bay Hill with hopes of capitalizing with a trophy and a jacket.
Schauffele has been incredible with his irons this season, gaining nearly three strokes per tournament in his last six events played. He made a concerted effort this offseason to play and practice more in Florida, with eyes on Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. No player seems willing to take the crown and run with it right now on the PGA Tour. A big-time with from Xander could send him on his way.
#3. Viktor Hovland
After a slow, calculated start to the 2024 Season, Viktor Hovland will have the engine tuned up and ready for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. After nearly winning this event in 2022 before a late collapse and epic Scheffler run, he rebounded last season by posting another top-1o finish at this event.
Hovland is coming off his best result in 2024 with a T19 at the Genesis Invitational where he did the majority of his damage off the tee. Like many in the field, Hovland is competing in the Seminole Member-Pro on Monday to get better acquainted in South Florida. His attention should be fully focused on kickstarting his year with a great performance this week. If he can find himself with another four stroke lead, he will cash it in the next time around.
Viktor Hovland’s lead is now FOUR at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 🔥
📈 Live odds: -135
pic.twitter.com/fNn5kQBqqj— Golfbet (@Golfbet) March 5, 2022
#2. Rory McIlroy
There was a time this past Saturday when it looked like Rory McIlroy was going to step on the gas and speed away with the Cognizant Classic trophy...then came the Bear Trap. A lazy mistake hitting a ball out of the water and miscalculation on the following hole ejected McIlroy out of contention, but it's not lost on me that he led the field tee-to-green and just couldn't get enough putts to drop.
McIlroy needs some magic to return to his putter and what better place than Bay Hill, the course where he gained a ridiculous +10.02 strokes putting in 2018 en route to victory. It was easily the best performance he's ever had with a putter, and when Rory is making bombs on the greens and Off the Tee, there is no better player in the world of golf.
The biggest surprise of the week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Rory McIlroy’s putting resurgence.
Learn more about his meeting with Brad Faxon and what changed in McIlroy's approach. https://t.co/CkhMuR91IU pic.twitter.com/z3Fu78Xhhu
— SwingU (@swinguapp) March 21, 2018
#1. Scottie Scheffler
At this point, it's becoming monotonous to continue to rank Scottie Scheffler number one in my rankings, but it's become clear that no other player has done enough to take the crown this season. Scheffler finished T4 last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after a clutch closing stretch earned him a victory and 2022 at Bay Hill.
It's the same old story for Scheffler, and there isn't much else to say other than that once he finally has a decent putting week he is clearly set to win by 3-4 strokes. Though five events in his 2024 season, Scheffler is +30 strokes on the field from tee to green. The recipe is simple and we all know that he's the best player on the planet. Should Scottie hole a couple of putts from over 10 feet this week, watch out because he could run away with another victory in Orlando.
Best of luck this week Rotoballer family!
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