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Week 6 didn't let up on the injury front, so kudos to those of you who continue to battle on! A heavy bye week puts more pressure on us to fill the gaps as we dig into our wallets here. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
This week brings a serious bye-week crunch. We'll be without six teams in Week 7: Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, Tennessee, and the New York Jets. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 7.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (QB, WAS) - 38% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Sam Howell didn’t have to do much in a 24-16 victory over the Falcons but still managed three touchdowns on just 14 completions. He’s now thrown six TDs against just one interception in his last three games, with at least four rush attempts in each game. They’ll face a suddenly scrappy Giants team in Week 7 before a rematch with Philadelphia.
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Yeah, I know. The flood of QB injuries mixed with the heavy bye create some unlikely friends. Kenny Pickett and the Steelers come off their bye with one last chance at fantasy trust, assuming Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth can return as weapons in Week 7 against the Rams.
Pickett has struggled but three of PIT’s early games came against SF, CLE, and BAL defenses. So I’m willing to grant one final flier, though this could be a total no-go for as long as Matt Canada is employed there.
***Those living on the edge can stash Malik Willis and hope that his rushing potential might be unlocked in 2023. Or if you're desperate and can't wait through the bye, then perhaps Chicago's Tyson Bagent is more your speed. But this speaks to 2QB leagues acting out of necessity and not desire.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) - 28% rostered
Jordan Mason (RB, SF) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%/8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%/12-18%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%/18-25%
One of Week 6’s biggest headlines was Christian McCaffrey’s exit from San Fran’s eventual loss to Cleveland due to an oblique injury. Jordan Mason would pick up five carries for 27 yards and a touchdown while Elijah Mitchell lost three yards on his two touches.
The surface momentum favors Mason, who ran well on Sunday and had a 10-69-1 line the week before while Mitchell was out. However, there's this:
Kyle Shanahan praised Jordan Mason's play on Sunday. But it sounded that Elijah Mitchell, not Mason, would be in the lead role should Christian McCaffrey miss Monday's game. #fantasy
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 16, 2023
If CMC misses time or is limited in Week 7 against Minnesota then Mitchell should be a strong RB2 play, but Mason can’t be discarded. It isn't surprising that Mitchell's first week back in action would go lightly. Game action could see Mason quickly usurp Mitchell if a hot hand is established.
Zach Evans (RB, LAR) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
Kyren Williams (ankle) and Ronnie Rivers (knee) are out for Week 7, which launches Zach Evans into relevance. Unfortunately, the potential one-week audition comes against Pittsburgh, and Royce Freeman is there to sprinkle in.
Evans logged 77 yards on 23 preseason carries (3.35 YPC) with two catches for 13 yards after being taken in the sixth round of this year’s draft. I’ll note he only had 30 catches across his three collegiate years as well. It’s a desperation play as the Rams should lean on Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell instead, with Pittsburgh’s offense unlikely to put up a massive fight. Still, business is business.
Craig Reynolds (RB, DET) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
David Montgomery exited Week 6 in the second quarter with a rib injury and would not return. The Lions were already without Jahmyr Gibbs, who may return for Week 7, while Zonovan Knight suffered a season-ending shoulder injury earlier in the week.
Craig Reynolds had to contend with a stout Tampa front anchored by Vita Vea and only gained 15 yards on 10 carries. He added two catches for 28 yards and will need said versatility with Week 7 coming in Baltimore. If Montgomery is held out through the Week 9 bye then a juicy Week 8 game against the Raiders looms. He even makes plays without the ball, which surely endears him to Dan Campbell and company!
One day later and the block from Lions RB Craig Reynolds is still beautiful. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/bFkvYPzqhj
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) October 17, 2023
Keaontay Ingram (RB, ARI) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-18%
Desperation Bid: 18-30%
Yes, there’s some egg on my face for thinking that Arizona would roll with Emari Demercado after his solid Week 5 relief effort. It was Keaontay Ingram who would lead the backfield with 12 touches, while Demercado was relegated to only three, playing behind Damien Williams. I remain unimpressed by Ingram but the lanes will be friendlier against Seattle’s front in Week 7.
Latavius Murray (RB, BUF) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Latavius Murray becomes a prominent piece of Buffalo’s backfield for as long as Damien Harris (neck) is sidelined. Luckily, Harris appears to have avoided major injury after being stretchered off of the field on Sunday night.
We have to plan for his absence, which should see Murray absorb much of the short-yardage/goal-line work going into a matchup with New England. The Bills are favored by over a touchdown in that one and such a positive gamescript would yield opportunities for Murray to salt the game away.
Rumors are swirling about Leonard Fournette visiting Buffalo to help pad out their depth. This would hurt Murray's prospects over the coming weeks but those seeking a quick stopgap for Week 7 shouldn't see him cede many snaps to a newbie.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice (WR, KC) - 45% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Kansas City still won’t anoint any receiver with a true No. 1 workload but Rashee Rice once again looked the best. He caught all four targets for 72 yards, which more than tripled the next-best WR’s output (Skyy Moore had 22). Justin Watson will also miss multiple weeks with an elbow injury.
KC has an appetizing home date against the Chargers next week and should need Rice to keep up. Then a rematch with Denver’s middling defense awaits in Week 8 before another shootout script with Miami in Week 9.
Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - 34% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Curtis Samuel has now found paydirt in three straight games, topping 40 receiving yards in 5-of-6 games in 2023. After spreading the ball in their early games, Sam Howell peppered Terry McLaurin with 11 targets while Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas only saw one apiece. Feed your hot players?
PFF's highest-graded Commanders in Week 6:
- Jamin Davis, 82.8
- Terry McLaurin, 80.9
- Kendall Fuller, 80.1
- Curtis Samuel, 73.9
- Cody Barton, 73.9— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) October 16, 2023
That earlier note about Samuel eclipsing 40 yards works conversely for Dotson, who hasn’t topped 40 once in ‘23. All of this is to say that Samuel’s more consistent workload in the slot may not boast a high ceiling but makes him a nifty FLEX plug in PPR circles. The Commanders also face some generous secondaries in the coming weeks (NYGx2, PHI, SEA).
Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 33% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
The Indianapolis passing game didn’t meet expectations on Sunday in a 37-20 loss to Jacksonville, but Josh Downs did catch his first NFL TD to make value. Michael Pittman Jr. commanded 14 targets but Downs still saw eight as those two continue to separate from other pass-catchers.
Gardner Minshew is going to need a quick safety blanket with a brutal matchup against Cleveland on tap. Their schedule is tough over the next month but opens up after the Week 11 bye.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Rashid Shaheed remains a volatile play but he’s too strong of a playmaker when given a few chances. The speedster’s two catches went for 34 and 51 yards, with the former ending in a TD. He added 18 rushing yards for a season-high 103 total yards in the Saints’ defeat. Derek Carr needs to buy Shaheed lunch for bailing him out of an interception:
CARR TO SHAHEED - 51 YARDS!!!#Saints | 📺:FOX pic.twitter.com/SbT5Sroi8f
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 15, 2023
New Orleans has faced some stingy secondaries to open the season but now gets JAX, IND, CHI, and MIN over their next four. The floor is low but those defenses are all above-average matchups that’ll leave the door open for Shaheed’s ceiling to shine.
Jauan Jennings (WR, SF) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%
Deebo Samuel’s shoulder injury is overshadowed by Christian McCaffrey’s oblique issue, which may let Jauan Jennings slide under the radar a bit. San Francisco got embarrassed by Cleveland and Jennings only had two catches for 26 yards, so this isn’t a headline.
If Samuel is out then you have a cheap avenue to starting snaps in SF’s offense. For now, he's considered "day-to-day" and seems to have an early lean towards being okay. That said, I'd be remiss not to flag Jennings and this SF WR situation before any practice reports come out later in the week.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith (TE, ATL) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Jonnu Smith’s first touchdown since 2021 helped him eclipse 12 PPR points in his third consecutive week. The Falcons aren’t shying away from utilizing both TEs given the lack of WR firepower beyond Drake London.
Smith has grown into one of the more reliable TE roles of 2023, seeing at least five targets in five straight games. The Jonnu-Arthur Smith connection remains constant, even as Kyle Pitts’ production increases.
Michael Mayer (TE, LV) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Michael Mayer caught 5-of-6 targets for 75 yards in the best game of his career so far. Most of this came with Jimmy Garoppolo playing in the first half before he left with a back injury and LV’s passing production dipped. Jimmy G may miss extended time and render Mayer a tough add, but LV faces a generous CHI defense in Week 7. Just keep ramping up the workload, please.
#Raiders rookie TE Michael Mayer routes per dropback by week:
Week 1: 31%
Week 2: 36%
Week 3: 39%
Week 4: 30%
Week 5: 46%
Week 6: 67%— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 16, 2023
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Luke Musgrave has yet to put it all together but the signs remain promising. We don’t trust Jordan Love yet so don’t look here for consistency, but he just saw seven targets for a 6-34-0 line in Week 5. The Packers’ offensive capabilities should improve with the return of Aaron Jones and boost the value of Musgrave’s looks.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
**There are several good options available in many leagues, which will hopefully keep the costs low if you can put 3+ bids out there from the group.
Los Angeles Rams Defense (vs. PIT) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
The earlier olive branch to Kenny Pickett is nice, but PIT still makes for a juicy target. They’ve only scored more than 15 offensive points once in five games, giving up an average of three sacks per game thus far. The Rams aren’t a dynasty defense anymore, but they have faced several challenging offenses (SEA, SF, PHI) and just held Arizona to nine points. I’d imagine most of you identify PIT as closer to ARI than those other offenses I listed.
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. ARI) - 22% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Joshua Dobbs has abruptly regressed in terms of accuracy, failing to top 50% over his last two games. After zero INTs in their first four games, Dobbs has now thrown three while the Cards have also lost a pair of fumbles of late. The Seahawks mauled the Giants for 11 sacks and just limited Joe Burrow to 17 points on the road, so I’m buying them against a flailing Cardinals team that can’t lean on its RBs without James Conner.
Washington Commanders Defense (at NYG) - 31% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
The Giants looked “better” with Tyrod Taylor in against Buffalo, but one game doesn’t shift an entire projection set and it was the defense that looked improved. There’s no swift erasure of allowing 7+ sacks in three of their first six games. Commander backers will hope Montez Sweat (thumb) can play, but this is a Washington team with three or more sacks in all but one game thus far and the setup is promising.
Cleveland Browns Defense (at IND) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
The Browns defense can make any game a scrap, as evidenced by the 19-17 upset defeat of the 49ers. They’ve recorded multiple sacks in each game this season while Gardner Minshew just absorbed three sacks while throwing three interceptions against Jacksonville.
If P.J. Walker starts again then I doubt Indy gets put in a hole for as many Minshew dropbacks, and the Colts' defense (10% rostered) would be in play. Cleveland demands attention. They have a juicy stretch in Weeks 9-12 that includes ARI, PIT, and DEN.
Green Bay Packers Defense (at DEN) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
Hopefully, the Packers enjoyed their early bye and hit the altitude of Denver near 100% for a date with Russell Wilson’s struggling offense. The Broncos have lost six turnovers over their last two games, allowing four sacks in each contest. Green Bay has logged four sacks in three of their five games in 2023 and should be able to pressure Wilson here.
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