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It's the final countdown. Wide receivers have taken the fantasy football community by storm. This is the first season since 2016 that the first player drafted is not a running back. As you’re probably aware, that player is Justin Jefferson. If that was your guess, I’m glad you are checking out my work because (spoiler alert) I have someone else atop my rankings.
If you are a fan of receivers, it’s a great time to be part of fantasy football. There is a great mix of aging stars such as Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins and younger talent such as Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson.
My name is Ellis Johnson, and I am proud to say that in 2021, my receiver draft rankings finished 15th in the FantasyPros accuracy competition. This article breaks down my WR rankings for the 2023 season and outlines how I view each player. You can also check out my video player profiles on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FF.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!15. Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
All Keenan Allen has done over the past three years is average a collective average of 13.2 fantasy points per game. That ppg would have been the 10th best at the position last season.
Despite this, we continue to undervalue Allen and prioritize his age over the fact he is linked to one of the most talented passers in the game. The offense should rebound this season and I expect Allen will continue to flirt with being a WR-one in ppg.
14. Chris Olave (WR, NOS)
I have seen Olave ranked everywhere from in people's top seven to outside their top 20. Regardless of where people rank him, one thing is clear: people expect him to take a step forward. In his rookie season, a common thought is that Olave was limited by Andy Dalton and his 66% catchable targets.
Although it appeared to be true, Derek Carr's top option Davante Adams last season had only 60% catchable targets. The biggest difference will be that hopefully the volume increases and Olave as a player can take a step forward. However, these are two big asks for me, so I have him as a high-end-WR-two and I am excited to see what he can do.
13. D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Despite the adoration for Metcalf, he has only finished as a top-10 WR once in his career (2020). Since then he has WR-12 and 18 finishes respectively. This is the first year that his ADP aligns with his production.
Currently going as the WR16, Metcalf is a perfect WR-two or WR-one if you start the draft RB heavy. The upside narrative for Metcalf is that he tied Justin Jefferson for the league lead in red zone targets, however, only converted a mediocre 33%. If that rate can increase, it won't be hard to see him finish as a WR1 this season.
12. Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
2022 was a weird season for Waddle. After starting the year as one of the best options in fantasy alongside his teammate Tyreek Hill, injuries to both Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa hindered his production.
For fantasy, this was frustrating as he either gave you less than 10 fantasy points or more than 20 with few in between. He is clearly one of the best young WRs in this league, but weighing in Tua's health concerns moves him behind Tee Higgins for me.
11. Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
I'll be honest, I am slightly concerned about Joe Burrow's calf injury for this season. However, until we hear anything more about his timeline, I am going to assume he is there Week One and fully healthy. Tee Higgins finished each of the last two seasons in the top-24 at the position despite missing games in both seasons.
That kind of productivity confirms that Higgins has the ability to be a lead NFL WR. Last season, if you remove the four games that he was hurt and played greater than 30% of the snaps, he averaged 13.9 fantasy points. That would have placed him as the WR9. Some of his games were obviously inflated by Ja'Marr Chase missing time, but there is plenty to go around.
I expect the Bengals to pass more this season, and I'm excited that Higgins is reuniting with his old college number and wearing number five. If Higgins stays healthy, he could be a surprise top-10 WR.
10. CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
In 2022, we finally got to see CeeDee Lamb perform at the WR1 level we were hoping for. After being drafted with the 17th pick in the 2020 draft, we knew he had the talent. But he was limited by Dak Prescott's injuries and sharing the work with Amari Cooper.
In his first season without Cooper, Lamb put together nearly 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns, finishing as the WR6 on the season. This year, the team brought in Brandin Cooks; however, they lost their primary TE, Dalton Schultz.
Overall, Lamb should have just as good a season as he did in 2022. Nonetheless, after changing offensive coordinators to Brian Schottenheimer and Mike McCarthy, it will be slowing down the pace of play. It will be hard for Lamb to surpass last year's production.
9. Davante Adams (WR, LVR)
Jimmy Garropolo has finally passed his physical testing for the Raiders. This is amazing news for Adams, as it means he'll have a capable QB feeding him the ball.
From watching his best friend get forced off the team to now being a veteran on a miserably managed team, he now has to navigate a new QB and a team that is firmly projected to be last in their division. Even with all of this, we know Adams is if not one of, the best receivers in the game making him a top-12 option for fantasy.
8. Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
For the second time in his football career, Tyreek Hill is being investigated for assault. In 2014, he was charged with felony domestic assault and battery by strangulation against his pregnant girlfriend. He is now being investigated for assault and battery against a marina employee.
I believe these actions are often overlooked when discussing the player. As for fantasy football, he is an electric NFL player with over 1,700 yards last year. The perceived risk of Tua Tagovailoa is what moves him lower in my rankings.
7. Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Over his last three seasons, Stefon Diggs has finished as the WR3, WR7, and WR4, respectively. It doesn't get much more consistent than that at the WR position. As Josh Allen's favorite target, this trend should continue.
I am slightly concerned about his off-field antics possibly impacting his on-field production; however, that’s too narrative-driven to move him lower in my rankings.
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
It's at the point where everyone needs to just accept that Amon-Ra St. Brown is elite for fantasy. He is a possession WR with top-tier route running and target share. St. Brown should start the season on fire.
Especially with their 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams being suspended for the first six games. He is locked in as the top option on a potent offense that will frequently be playing from behind. It's the perfect recipe for fantasy, and you should feel good having St. Brown as your WR1 for 2023.
5. Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
You can love Garrett Wilson. However, I struggle to have him any higher than WR5. This is nothing about Wilson, I just view the top four receivers to be solid and possess little risk.
Although Wilson's situation couldn't be much better, there is always a risk when a new QB comes into town, even if it is Aaron Rodgers.
Plus, we just saw Davante Adams cement himself as the best WR in the game, with or without Rodgers. I think Wilson is great, but he'll need to rival Adams' ability to supplant any of my top five. I'm not ready to give him that crown yet.
4. Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Give me a second to wipe the egg from my face. Cooper Kupp is outstanding. I'll admit I thought there was no way he could repeat his production from 2021, and he did just that before getting injured.
During training camp, Kupp suffered a minor hamstring injury. Although minor, there is a history of training camp hamstring injuries flaring up in the season. For that reason only he has moved down from my WR-three overall.
With Matthew Stafford coming back and the team floundering to find other offensive weapons, Kupp is as locked and loaded as ever. Although he is my fourth-ranked WR, he deserves to be in the same conversation as the big three.
3. A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)
I think you can make an argument that A.J. Brown is the most physically dominant WR in the game. After teaming up with his best friend Jalen Hurts, Brown did not disappoint.
Finishing 2022 with nearly 1,500 yards and 146 targets, it's clear he is the main weapon on this offense. Last year, he had 50% of Hurts' passing touchdowns with 11. Although you could view this as a negative, I think it showcases his upside. Especially considering this team was automatically running the ball in the red zone.
2. Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Believe it or not, just because I have Justin Jefferson at number two doesn't mean I hate him. Jefferson is fanatstic. If you are looking for weekly consistency and elite target totals, he's your guy.
Although I prefer the upside of Ja'Marr Chase, Jefferson has a more solidified role on the Vikings' offense and doesn't have to compete with Tee Higgins. It's a coin flip for which WR you want to take at the start of the draft.
1. Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Considering everyone believes Chase and Jefferson are a tier of their own, I am surprised how few people have Chase at number one. What moves Chase ahead for me is the team situation and touchdown upside.
Due to his injury last season, it is often overlooked that he averaged more targets and touchdowns per game and 0.2 fewer receptions per game than Jefferson.
Furthermore, Jefferson's career high in touchdowns is 10, despite leading the league in targets and receptions last season. Chase, however, has never scored fewer than nine touchdowns in his two-year career.
Additionally, Chase was third in red zone targets despite missing five games, averaging 2.2 red zone targets per game. If one of these two is going to score 12+ touchdowns, I'm betting it's Chase, making him my WR1 this season.
Thank you for reading. Check out my other positional rankings on RotoBaller!
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