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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/3/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including James Wood, Otto Lopez, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! The holiday weekend has arrived, and Major League Baseball is ready to start the fireworks show early with some great spots for home runs this Friday. The hot and humid weather is great for offense, and there are some juicy home run props on the board this Friday. Let's take a look at the matchups and environments across the league and find some great spots to attack with home run props. Four teams have a rare Friday off-day, but 26 teams are on the board, providing plenty of options to consider. Let's swing for the fences with the four picks analyzed below.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, July 3, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/3/2026)
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 Kalshi)
James Wood is always a great option to consider for home run props since he ranks near the top of almost all the quality of contact metrics and brings plenty of power potential. He leads the league in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage and has the second-highest average exit velocity behind only Oneil Cruz.
The 23-year-old lefty has mashed 22 homers in his 88 games this season with a .257 ISO, .389 WOBA, and .522 SLG. Wood has homered in two of his last three games after going yard on Wednesday at Fenway.
James Wood 3-run blast!
The @Nationals have scored double digits 😮 pic.twitter.com/Umcu1NZCuT
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026
Wood has hit 12 of his 22 homers at home this season, and has hit 15 of them against right-handed pitching. He'll be on the strong side of both of those stats against Mitch Keller on Friday night in temperatures close to 100 with the wind blowing out to right field.
Keller has allowed nine homers in his 17 starts this year, including five in his last five starts. He has given up at least three runs in six straight outings, surrendering 30 runs in 30 innings over that span.
Lefties like Wood have hit seven of the nine homers against him and have a .172 ISO and .344 wOBA against him, along with a 41.7% hard-hit rate. Wood has had success against Keller in the past, going 3-for-10 with a home run in their previous meetings.
Starting the holiday weekend in Washington with one of the Nationals' biggest bats seems both poetic and smart this Friday night, since the environment and matchup set Wood up for success.
Otto Lopez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+575 HardRock Bet)
For my favorite longshot play, let's go to the other end of Friday night's slate and take a pick from the West Coast, where the Athletics host the Marlins at Sutter Health Park. The field has been very homer-friendly over the last couple of years while serving as the A's temporary home. The weather forecast calls for it to be very warm again on this lovely California evening, with the wind blowing out at almost 10 miles per hour.
Jack Perkins gets the start for the A's, and the 26-year-old righty has bounced around this season, working as part of the closer committee before joining the rotation five games ago. In his five starts, he has allowed 17 runs on 24 hits, including five homers. On the season, he has a 6.23 home ERA, so he's a matchup with a flashing green light this Friday.
Even though he has been hittable on all sides of his splits, righties have done most of the damage against him, hitting four of the six homers he has allowed. Righties have a .344 wOBA and .194 ISO against him, and those reverse splits are why I like Lopez at his longer odds a little more than his slugging teammates, Kyle Stowers, Liam Hicks, and Owen Caissie, since all three of them are lefties.
Lopez has seven homers this season, and two of those have come in his last seven games. Over that stretch, he's hitting .333 with a .454 wOBA and a .400 ISO. His most recent homer came in the first game of the team's three-game set in Denver, and he'll look to continue to take advantage of homer-friendly parks and stay hot on Friday night against Perkins.
Otto launch 🚀 pic.twitter.com/TPZxDM9PqP
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 30, 2026
