Wide Receiver ADP Risers

August 18, 2021

Antonio Losada looks at the fantasy football ADP variation of three wide receivers and assesses their fantasy football value for 2021.

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.

Wide Receivers - ADP Risers

Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints

At the verge of entering the last week of July, fantasy GMs got what we'd call not-precisely-great news: WR Michael Thomas, he of the 25th-overall ADP back then, underwent surgery to fix his ankle ligaments and expectations are he misses four months. Uh oh. Four months would put us somewhat deep into the season, even though the surgery took place in June. Obviously, Thomas is not a WR1 anymore because of the games he'd miss, and any high-stakes fantasy leagues out there will see GMs easily pass on the wideout.

The winner? Teammate Tre'Quan Smith, whose barely noticeable ADP of 225 by mid-July is all the way up to around 150 at the time of this writing. The trend has changed and gone down in the past few days because the very own Smith sustained a leg injury at the start of August, but all signs point toward a speedy recovery and a potential appearance without any concern in New Orleans' first preseason game.

Smith has three seasons in his pro-resume already but he's never been able to rack up more than 103.1 PPR points over a full campaign--mostly because of a lack of opportunities (he's topped at 50 targets in a single season and that happened last year). Don't get too crazy about drafting Smith even in Thomas' absence. Smith projects to a WR69 finish (via PFF) and 145+ PPR points on the season, which is making him a valuable late-round flier. But that's probably his ceiling and if the ADP rises more, he would just become undraftable in terms of ROI.

Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

Sanders missed his first practice of August back on the fifth day of the month. He was out on the second one, a couple of days after that. He's nursing a foot injury, and while that's forced him into missing practices, it's not that it will really factor in his regular-season performances, and most importantly, availability.

No matter those issues, Sanders has been rising up the ADP rankings through the past few weeks mostly because of the whole Cole Beasley-COVID drama that has been unfolding of late. Beasley has been one of the most vocal players about not vaccinating, and that brought concerns to Bills staffers and fantasy GMs too, mostly because of a potential retirement/release happening down the line affecting Beasley's season.

Cole Beasley, if fit and ready, is the real deal. I love him, and if you've read me in other places and columns, you know it. He's the embodiment of return on investment yearly. That being said, Sanders joined the Bills this summer and he should be Buffalo's WR2 next year while playing in an absolute unit of an offense. While projecting to a WR71 finish with an ADP of 175 overall, I think that's really low for what he brings to the table. I'd pay that draft price and much more gladly to get me some Sanders shares entering peak draft season.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

I'm writing this just hours after news popped from Baltimore's camp regarding Bateman and a groin injury on Aug. 10. The latest reports say that he could very well miss Week 1 while recovering, and that means that the likely WR1/2 of the Ravens might be out of Lamar Jackson's receiving corps to kick the 2021 season off. That news, combined with his rise in the ADP leaderboard of late, is what makes this combination interesting to explore.

We're going to definitely keep an eye on Bateman's health going forward. Right now, Bateman looks like a make-or-break gamble to take. Sure, we're talking about only missing one game--if anything at all--but drafting Bateman with a late rounder is going to be a little harder to stomach for some than it was before this injury. That being said, Bateman could turn into that true WR1, play to great levels, and become a league winner. The risk and potential rewards of this gamble are sky-high.

Early reports from the Ravens' camp talked about veteran WR Sammy Watkins looking the best among receivers. It is not that he will eat a lot from Bateman's cake, but there's that. Marquise Brown seems to be back on track to the field, and the rook will also have to fight against TE Mark Andrews for targets. Not the most expensive of guys at his current ADP, and again, a potential bargain if this injury makes it drop in a reverse trend to that of the past few weeks.

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