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Week 8 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 1) - Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 8 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 8 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive our full season NFL (or NBA) Premium Pass for free, a $59.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium pass.

 

Week 7 Recap

Greatest Hits: LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, TB), Mike Evans (WR, TB)

LeGarrette Blount isn't going away any time soon. He is a proven red zone threat and solid RB2 each week. As far as Rodgers and Evans, predicting the 49ers defense to get gashed by anyone these days is pretty easy. Stack opponents against San Fran on a weekly basis, if possible. Although I don't claim players from the "Matchups I Hate" in the Hits category, hopefully you heeded my advice to avoid both quarterbacks from that Monday Night debacle.

Greatest Misses: T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND), Tyrell Williams (WR, SD), Marquise Goodwin (WR, BUF)

Andrew Luck should also be listed here, as he and Hilton go together as a package deal I was wrong about. The Titans couldn't take advantage of the fact that Hilton is literally the only downfield receiving threat that Indy has these days and somehow left him open repeatedly. Despite injury reports late in the week, Travis Benjamin did in fact play, drawing coverage away from Tyrell Williams who went for a career high 140 yards. Goodwin also managed a career day with 100 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a head injury. There won't be many healthy bodies left for Tyrod Taylor to throw passes toward at this point.

 

Redskins @ Bengals - Sunday 10/30 @ 9:30 AM EST

Matchups We Love

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) - Redskins fans and even some of his own teammates were ready to run Kirk out of town after two weeks of mediocre play, despite the fact he threw for over 300 yards in each of those games. Winning cures all. The Skins ran off four victories in a row and Cousins is completing nearly 70% of his passes since Week 3. Only four teams have allowed more passing TDs than the Bengals, making Cousins a mid-range QB1 this week.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS) - He has re-emerged as a great value play the last couple weeks, with 52 yards and a TD in Week 6, followed by 108 yards on seven catches in Week 7. It seems to be no coincidence that Crowder shines in the games where Jordan Reed is either missing or ineffective. Reed remains in the concussion protocol but is said to have a chance to play this weekend. Crowder has a limited ceiling, but could make a strong flex play in all formats. His price tag may be a little higher than last week for daily leagues, but he is still a strong value.

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - Much of Hill's season-high 168 rushing yards last week did come on a 74-yard run straight up the gut. That still leaves him with 94 yards on just eight carries. While the Redskins are more formidable defensively than Cleveland (who isn't?), Hill is looking strong and could work his way back into RB2 consideration with another strong performance.

Matchups We Hate

Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Although he only carried the ball 10 times and was invisible in the second half against the Lions, Jones is listed as questionable with an injury to an undisclosed area. This sounds a lot like Doghouse-itis, as his fumbling problems clearly irked Jay Gruden. It would be surprising to see him get much run in this game, if any. Don't leave him for dead the rest of the year, but be advised that this week is clearly one to avoid with Jones.

Notable Players

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - This contest could truly go either way. The London games can make for high-scoring affairs at times, but Washington has been much better against the pass than the run. A lot depends on the health of top corners Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland as well. There are too many variables at play to whole-heartedly recommend Dalton this week, but he should be a safe enough start if you are in a 12+ team league.

Chris Thompson (RB, WAS) - Usually just a third-down back, Thompson benefited the most from Matt Jones' inability to hold onto the ball. 73 rushing yards and seven catches for 40 receiving yards aren't lighting the world on fire, but he may be worth a flex spot for at least one more week. He is worth an add for the short-term, but don't expect him to fulfill your needs as an RB2 the rest of the way.

 

Seahawks @ Saints - Sunday 10/30 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Christine Michael (RB, SEA) - The simple fact is that the Saints don't just give up huge yardage in the air, they also allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season at 26.9, barely better than the 49ers. Thomas Rawls is still a couple weeks away from returning and C.J. Prosise isn't ready for a full workload quite yet, so Michael should be the beneficiary of a choice matchup. Beyond this week, I wouldn't buy into him too much. The 'Hawks schedule gets harder and the committee approach will return in a bad way. Reap the benefits this week before selling, if possible.

Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - Fond memories of 1,000 yard seasons will come washing over the red-headed one as he takes the field in the Superdome this Sunday. He hasn't faced his former team as a Seahawk until now. While revenge isn't a factor here, as he chose to leave, he should have an easy time against the Saints defense, or lack thereof. Before last week, Graham had posted 100, 113, and 89 receiving yards. Look for him to top 100 again.

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) - Whatever doesn't go Graham's way will fall to Baldwin, who is Seattle's leading receiver with 34 receptions for 430 yards. Slot corner DeVante Harris has a PFF grade of 47.0, ranking him 100th among all corners. Don't expect him to slow down the dependable Baldwin, who rates as an WR2 this week.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - Of all the options Drew Brees has to choose from, the rookie receiver might come out on top this week. While their top two receivers will be blanketed by Richard Sherman and Jeremy Lane, Drew Brees will have to look for other options. Thomas has become the most consistent receiver in New Orleans, catching at least four passes in every game so far and going over 50 yards in all but one. It's tough to love the matchup, but of all the Saints receivers he presents the best value.

Matchups We Hate

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Ingram will be motivated to redeem himself after fumbling late in last week's loss to Kansas City.  Ingram wasn't particularly effective before that point either, finishing the day with 62 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards. After six games, Ingram is averaging less than four yards per carry and hasn't amassed 80 rushing yards in a game. The last thing he needs is to face off against Seattle's defense, which allows the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. You wouldn't be blamed for benching him if you happen to have a dilemma at RB.

Notable Players

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Pros: He's a top five fantasy QB playing at home, where he excels. Cons: He's facing one of the toughest defenses in the league. The expression "something has to give" may not be fitting here, as he could end up with a line like this: 250 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT. Brees hasn't really faced a top-notch defense this year, so don't be surprised if he struggles, but still pulls out enough yardage to be respectable.

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - Wilson may be elevated to a top ten QB play this week, but only because the New Orleans secondary is on the menu and six teams are on a bye. If Seattle has its way running the ball, he still may not put up elite numbers. You can start him in 12+ team leagues, but don't bench someone like Brady, Luck or Ryan for him based on matchup alone.

 

Cardinals @ Panthers - Sunday 10/30 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

David Johnson (RB, ARI) - Forget the matchup, you've gotta love the player. Johnson IS the Cardinals offense, both running and receiving. If Johnson can produce 113 rushing and 58 receiving yards against Seattle, he should have a field day in this one. He is the top RB in the field for Week 8.

John Brown (WR, ARI) - Brown missed last week with hamstring pain, but it turned out to be caused by a genetic condition rather than injury. He is probable to play and could feast on the Panthers' young secondary. Brown has only produced one truly noteworthy game, but remains a big play threat. He could be a great value with a low price tag this week. His 12.5 Y/R is down from last year's 15.4 and his career mark of 14.6, so regression (the good kind) might be in order.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI) - Even in the ugliest offensive game of the season, Fitz still paid dividends to fantasy owners. He caught nine passes for 70 yards on 14 targets. Although he is yet to post a 100-yard game this season, his five touchdowns are still among the tops for receivers. Going against nickel corner Robert McClain should pose no problem for the vet. He is a high-end WR2 play in all formats.

Matchups We Hate

Greg Olsen (TE, CAR) - Arizona still hasn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season and are the toughest statistically against the position. They shut down Jimmy Graham on Monday night and can do the same to Olsen, regardless of how good he has been this year. If you own him in H2H, you're starting him, but his price tag is too high in DFS.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - Patrick Peterson will introduce himself quickly to Benjamin with his physical style of play. If there is a cornerback who can disrupt the massive receiver, it is Peterson. Other than his Week 1 surprise performance against Denver, he has been up-and-down along with the entire Panthers offense, shining against weaker competition. Fade him this week, if possible.

Notable Players

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - The Panthers have had a brutal schedule to start the season. Hey, that's the reward you earn for making the Super Bowl. Cam and team haven't been up to the challenge, as evidenced by their 1-4 record. It has been feast or famine fantasy-wise for Newton. His season stats have been padded by huge games against league-worst defenses in San Francisco and New Orleans. His other three starts have been letdowns, resulting in a 2/4 TD/INT ratio. He is always capable of salvaging some value with a rushing score, but he is certainly not playing like the MVP we watched last season. Tough as it may sound, Newton could be benchable against the Cardinals top-notch defense.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR) - Stewart looked sharp in his first game back from injury before last week's bye. Granted, that came against the Saints and their sieve of a defense, but he looked good nonetheless. In a tough matchup like this, Stewart becomes more of a flex play in most leagues but is still worth starting due to the workload he should receive.

 

Chiefs @ Colts - Sunday 10/30 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Spencer Ware (RB, KC) - Make no mistake - this is still Ware's backfield. The setback experienced by Jamaal Charles last week makes it highly unlikely he will see anything more than 10 carries in this game and that's being generous. Ware has made it unnecessary for Charles to even suit up by averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season. Indy is among the worst at stopping the run, which makes Ware an RB1 this week in all league types.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Hilton proved me wrong last week and should be an even stronger play this week. The return of both Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett should actually help Hilton, as the Chiefs will be forced to keep their safeties back and respect the deep ball. Hilton won't be matched up face-to-face with Marcus Peters too often, but even so Peters has shown that he can get beat over the top this season. Hilton is locked in as a WR1 for Week 8.

Andrew Luck (QB, IND) - It appears the Andrew Luck of old is back. A 353-yard, three-TD effort on the road last week elevated Luck to the second-leading fantasy scorer among all QBs. Drew Brees put up almost identical stats last week against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Give him back his second and third wide receiver from injury and he could be even more dangerous. Keep rolling with Luck while he's hot.

Matchups We Hate

Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC) - The Mac is not back. It has been a disappointing run for Maclin this season. He hasn't surpassed 80 yards in a game and isn't helping fantasy owners by scoring touchdowns either, with just one to his credit. There is reason for concern, since he has been targeted just three times in the red zone for one completion. According to PFF, he's expected to get shadow coverage from Vontae Davis, who hasn’t allowed a touchdown or over 40 receiving yards in each of the last four games. You can safely avoid Maclin this week.

Notable Players

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - Gore is firmly in the middle of the RB pack for me this week. The Chiefs rank as a decent run-stopping team, but the Colts' offense can put up big points in the pass game at home. Gore could see enough carries in the second half to make him a viable option, but as a player who has only gone over 100 yards from scrimmage once this season, he has a definite ceiling.

 

Lions @ Texans - Sunday 10/30 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU) - No, the Texans haven't changed quarterbacks. As depressing as some of his stat lines have been this year, it hasn't been all bad for Hopkins. He has produced three games that could qualify as duds, with some bright spots along the way. The Lions have been quite generous against the pass, allowing nine TD to wide receivers. Expect enough opportunities to make Hopkins a fantasy asset once again.

Will Fuller (WR, HOU) - He's had three good games at home, totaling 292 yards and two scores, compared to 57 yards and no scores on the road. That's quite a split. This week, the Texans are at home and facing a relatively weak pass defense. This works in the receiver's favor, but Fuller is starting to experience. He is worth a WR3/flex spot this week, even though he can't necessarily be depended on regularly.

C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU) - In the absence of the more athletic Stephen Anderson, Fiedorowicz has come on. He-whose-name-shall-not-be-spelled put up 48, 61, and 85 yards, including two TDs, in the three weeks before last week's disaster in Denver. The Lions are even more generous to TE than WR, so it makes sense that he could be a low-end TE1 play this week.

Golden Tate (WR, DET) - Tate eloquently stated that his benching a couple of weeks ago "lit a fire under my tail." Rather than experiencing a breakout season with Megatron out of the picture, Tate was unplayable the first five weeks, averaging 26.8 Y/G on 17 receptions with no touchdowns. He's definitely on fire lately, nearly doubling that output in the last two games with 258 receiving yards on 14 receptions. Marvin Jones is still a solid option, but the targets are starting to lean in Tate's favor. If there's one Lions receiver worth the price of admission for this one, it's the Golden One.

Matchups We Hate

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET) - Mr. 4th Quarter Comeback might not be needed to pull out a miracle at home against an opposing offense struggling to find consistency. The Texans have proven effective at limiting the passing game even without J.J. Watt, giving up 231 and 157 passing yards the last two weeks respectively. Stafford will dink and dunk his way through this game, frustrating fantasy owners and Lions fans riding a high from last week's victory.

Zach Zenner (RB, DET) - Zenner may have seen the peak of his usage for this season in Week 6 when he carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards. Last week those numbers dipped to nine carries for 29 yards, although he did take a plunge into the end zone. With Dwayne Washington possibly taking the field for this game, Zenner will revert to a goal-line formation only player. It would be best to avoid all Detroit running backs for the time being until we see who is healthy and who is deserving of carries.

Notable Players

Brock Osweiler (QB, HOU) - It would be easy to pile on here and label him a bust each week, but it's not that simple. Osweiler may never live up to his contract, but he will still put together a good game every so often. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year so hope remains. I'm not saying to start him... but if you want a homerun play for GPP formats, he could be a steal.

 

Raiders @ Buccaneers - Sunday 10/30 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Amari Cooper (WR, OAK) - Up and down, round and round we go. Cooper busted out for two 100-yard games in Weeks 6 and 7, followed by a 29-yard dud last week. He hasn't consistently played like the best receiver in Oakland, much less your fantasy team this season. In this game, he should have a more favorable matchup than partner Michael Crabtree. While King Crab gets former Pro Bowl CB Brent Grimes for most of the day, Cooper will face rookie Vernon Hargreaves. There is a good chance Cooper breaks a big play or two, making him a high-upside play in tournaments.

Mike Evans (WR, TB) - Evans is on pace for exactly 200 targets this season, averaging 12.5 per game. That alone makes him an WR1, but his nine red zone targets that have parlayed into six TD make him a top five overall WR in standard leagues. His opponent this game will be Sean Smith, who is still grading out well overall, but has given up big plays here and there.

Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, TB) - The offense will continue to flow through Rodgers and Evans, at least until Doug Martin is able to suit up. All he's done since becoming the starter is tote the rock 56 times for 255 yards, good for a 4.55 Y/A average. Did I mention that's just in two games?  This matchup isn't as mouth-watering as Week 7, but the Raiders do allow the 10th most fantasy PPG to running backs. Don't worry about Martin, at least for this week.

Matchups We Hate

Jameis Winston (QB, TB) - I've said it before, but it bears repeating. The Raiders defense is not as bad as they look on paper. After Week 2, when the entire defensive unit presumably had their a** chewed out by coach Jack Del Rio, a former linebacker and defensive coordinator, they have allowed six TD and six INT through the air in five games. Winston is the epitome of feast or famine, making him a dicey play each week. Evans will get his numbers but there aren't enough threats on the field to make Winston worth starting.

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK) - Murray's sudden revival stems largely from the fact that rookies DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard did very little in the two games he missed. The Raiders rushed for a total of 153 yards in Weeks 5-6. If you took a chance on Murray last week, you were happy with the two scores, but he still only ran for 59 yards and 3.3 Y/A. This will remain a committee approach and Murray will remain TD-dependent for value.

Notable Players

Russell Shepard (WR, TB) - With V-Jax out for the season, Adam Humphries stayed in the slot and Shepard became the #2 receiver on the outside. Despite playing just 36% of the offensive snaps, he produced 77 yards and a touchdown. Taking away too much from one game against the horrid 49ers defense would be a mistake, but if he has earned Winston's trust then he could be a player to watch for the second half of the season.




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