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According to many, this week is yet another “Bye-mageddon” for fantasy managers, and it’s hard to argue against that point. With the Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles all on sabbatical, there is no doubt fantasy managers are losing a ton of talent to vacation this week. That means every league will be without the two best fantasy QBs, the two best catchers of the football, and one of the last workhorse RBs left in the civilized world. And that’s just on offense. What about defense?
Between just the Bills and Rams, IDP managers will be missing a top-ten player at each defensive position in fantasy (DL, LB, DB). In total, we had to remove eighteen regulars from our weekly IDP rankings, including elite options like Aaron Donald, Danielle Hunter, Za’Darius Smith, T.J. Edwards, Jordan Hicks, Eric Kendricks, Jordan Poyer, and Harrison Smith. In total, the DL position loses the most players from our ranks, but that isn’t the position most in need of triage.
The fantasy position facing the harshest of times in this Bye-nado is DB, where the losses of Poyer, Smith, and Jalen Ramsey aggravate an already perilously thin position. DB is always shallow in fantasy, but we could be missing as many as six of our top-25 options due to injury and now the by week is claiming more. Those losses will make things harder for most IDP managers… which finally makes this column relevant! But it also makes this column harder to write, so you’re welcome in advance!
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Something to Worry About in Week 7 (aka “Bye-Mageddon”)
The 49ers' Defense is Seriously Depleted
Let’s start with the good news. San Francisco’s defensive line still has at least three active members with the skills to get to opposing quarterbacks. The rookie Drake Jackson is a premium talent but raw, Charles Omenihu ranks 30th in the NFL in quarterback pressures despite playing just 54% of SF’s defensive snaps, and Samson Ebukam has flashed repeatedly.
If you’re relying on Jackson or Omenihu this week, you love the idea of those talents seeing a high snap share against a high-volume Chiefs passing attack. Opportunity is key in fantasy football, and they could see a lot of that if Nick Bosa is out. A high snap share against a Chiefs offense averaging 38.3 pass attempts per game offers premium potential for pass rushers. It could also help Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga in Travis Kelce duty.
Now for the bad news. The 49ers could be down their two starting corners this week if Charvarius Ward is out. They'll also likely be without Jimmie Ward and Jason Verrett, while Nick Bosa is a major question mark. That means the Chiefs will have plenty of quick passing options, as San Francisco’s backup corners could struggle in coverage. It may also mean blockers can key on the 49ers’ backup defensive linemen with Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, and Bosa out.
It's a tough call overall, knowing what to do with this 49ers defense in Week 7. The instinct is to elevate Fred Warner and all pass rushers based on potential volume, but remember, the Chiefs have an Adjusted Sack Rate of just 4.9% and surrender fewer than two sacks per game. Patrick Mahomes is also surrendering just 0.67 turnovers per game. Thus, Kansas City is a tough matchup for a depleted defense that profiles to be more boom-or-bust than usual.
Casual Scoring Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: Alex Singleton, LB, Denver Broncos… If Josey Jewell is Out
Singleton has always been a player who excels in fantasy but shows lapses in real football. For that reason, he's regularly struggled to earn coaches' trust and solidify a full-time role with the Eagles and Broncos. That's why you see his playing time waffle from single-digit snaps to 100% snap shares, regardless of his elite tackle totals.
As usual, Singleton excelled last week in relief of Jewell. Unfortunately, if Jewell does play, it appears Singleton may not see any snaps at all. For that reason, the tackle-hoarding Singleton is an easy LB2 if Jewell is out this week. However, he is also waiver fodder if Jewell does play. Thus, Singleton falls into the middle tiers of our rankings this week until real news on Jewell's status comes out. Play him if there's no Jewell. Cut him if there is.
Stream: Derek Stingley Jr., DB, Houston Texans
With a shallow DB pool this week, our rankings may be too low on Stingley. The rookie has already shadowed twice this season, and now he gets a clear receiver to follow in Davante Adams. Stingley has registered at least four solo tackles in both games when in shadow. He's also tipped five passes and brought in a pick this year. With Adams averaging 10.8 targets per game, we won't blame you if you play Stingley as your DB1 this week.
Fade: Brian Burns, DL, Carolina Panthers
This is a "first world problem" situation since Burns is an elite edge that qualifies as a DL2 for us this week. However, if you play in a shallow format, you likely can find a DL with a higher floor than the Panthers star has against Tampa. While the Buccaneers offer elite volume to pass rushers, Tom Brady gets rid of the ball faster than anyone, and Burns has never secured a sack against Tristan Wirfs.
Fade: Johnathan Abram, DB, Las Vegas Raiders
There are persistent rumors that Abram is on the trading block as part of the Raiders’ move to cleanse Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock from their aura. Amid those rumors, Abram saw his snap rate drop 25% against the Chiefs. It isn't uncommon for NFL teams to start phasing players out once they are put on the block to preserve their health and acclimate their backups to starting roles.
Since we’ve seen Tre’von Moehrig and Duron Harmon’s snap rates increase and Abram’s decrease, we are concerned there may be truth to trade rumors. We also don't feel particularly bad for fading Abram since he's averaging just 4.3 total tackles and no big plays over the past three weeks. Given the unknowns about his status and the lack of production, it's hard to see Abram as anything more than a DB3 in a depleted pool of talent.
Premium Scoring & Deep League Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: George Karlaftis, DL, Kansas City Chiefs… if Trent Williams & Mike McGlinchey Are Out
This stream option is primarily encouraged if Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey are out this weekend. While Karlaftis has flashed several times this year, particularly against Arizona, he's yet to produce a big fantasy game. That could change if the 49ers are forced to start their fourth and fifth options at tackle.
Remember that San Francisco isn't just considering life without Williams and McGlinchey this weekend. They are also without Colton McKivitz, their swing tackle. That leaves Jaylon Moore and Daniel Brunskill as the likely edge blockers if the starters are out. Moore has allowed pressure on 8.6% of his snaps, which is bad, and Brunskill hasn't seen serious snaps at tackle since 2019. If those are the 49ers' options, you must elevate KC edge rushers.
Stream: Byron Murphy, DB, Arizona Cardinals
Murphy is the eighth most targeted defender in the NFL this year, and he's shadowed in the past. Murphy should have another obvious shadow candidate in Chris Olave, with Michael Thomas ruled out. While Olave's target share has been surprisingly low with Thomas gone, his target share with Jameis Winston under center is a healthy 9.7 targets per contest. If Winston is named the starter on Thursday, you should consider Murphy a high-ceiling option.
Fade: Chandler Jones, DL, Las Vegas Raiders
At the risk of beating this dead horse, Chandler Jones isn't what he once was… which many of us knew would be the case coming into the season. Despite that, Jones is rostered in approximately 10% of IDP leagues, which is too high.
Jones is currently getting pressure on just 6.9% of his snaps, which is nearly half what he averaged at his peak. He now faces a Texans offense that ranks 20th in pass attempts per game. Houston’s offensive tackles are also playing at an elite level, allowing an incredibly low 2.2 pressures per game from the edge. Less than 25% of Houston’s pressures are allowed on the outside, which is where Jones lines up 98.9% of the time.
Fade: Shaq Thompson, LB, Carolina Panthers
Since Tom Brady took over in Tampa, they have played Shaq Thompson four times. In those contests, Thompson has averaged a mere 5.75 total tackles per game while totaling just three TFLs and one total turnover. Regardless of your fantasy format, that kind of production is concerning. While Brady and his offense are in a slump, the offense's scheme remains the same and the turnovers/sacks remain low. Consider Thompson a low-floor and low-ceiling option this week.
Defensive Tackles to Consider for This Week
Grover Stewart, DT, Indianapolis Colts
Stewart is having a career year with two sacks while averaging 2.8 solo tackles per game. He also sits tied for ninth in the NFL in “stops," which are tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Colts now get the run-heavy Titans offense, which directs 58% of its runs in Stewart's area. This is a player available in nearly every league who can help you if you're desperate for a DT2 streamer.
Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT, Los Angeles Chargers
Sebastian Joseph-Day has played at least 36 snaps in every game since Week 1, has 11 stops on the season, and has put together three fantasy-relevant outings in six games. The former Ram is also going against a Seahawks offense that has openly stated they want to win ground-and-pound matchups with Kenneth Walker at their forefront. This could be a solid game script for a flyer like Joseph-Day.
Cornerbacks to Consider for This Week
Paulson Adebo, CB, New Orleans Saints
With Marshon Lattimore out, the responsibility of covering DeAndre Hopkins could primarily fall to Paulson Adebo. The corner from Stanford has a healthy 21.3% target rate this year, which could rise if Kyler Murray makes a point of feeding Hopkins in his first game back. Adebo is a solid CB play against a Cardinals offense that averages the second most pass attempts per game in the NFL this season.
Deommodore Lenoir, CB, San Francisco 49ers
For some reason, the 49ers seem to like this second-year corner out of Oregon. He overtook pre-season darling Samuel Womack as the primary slot corner in Week 3, and he's taken on an outside role since Emmanuel Moseley went down. As a result, Lenoir has been targeted on 23% of his coverage snaps, which is an incredibly high rate. It’s also a rate fantasy managers should like, especially against a Chiefs offense averaging 38 passes a game.
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