December 22, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Thursday Night Football (TNF) matchups analysis and lineup starts/sits for Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season. Players to target or avoid for fantasy football lineups.

It's time for the Week 16 installment of Thursday night matchups with my start/sit recommendations. This week, divisional foes meet as the Giants travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down every game and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and injury information as well. Later this week, you will find parts one and two of our Week 16 NFL matchups, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Giants @ Eagles - Thursday 12/22 @ 8:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)

Over the past four weeks, Beckham has averaged 11 targets per game, failing to surpass 90 yards only once. He has four touchdowns over that span, and has been a touchdown-per-game player over the past 10 weeks. Point being, Beckham has been dominant of late when fantasy owners need him most. Things shouldn’t change against an Eagles defense that has given up the second mort receiving yards to the wide receiver position this season. In recent weeks they allowed DeSean Jackson, Brandon LaFell and Davante Adams to have huge fantasy days against them. Obviously Beckham is in a different tier than all of these players mentioned, locking him in as an elite WR1 even on a short week.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)

Over the past three weeks, the tight end position for the Eagles has been the focal point of the offense. Of the 147 total targets over the past three weeks, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, and Trey Burton have combined for 65 of them (44% of the team’s total targets). Ertz has been the leader of the pack over that span, leading the team in receiving with no game less than 79 yards. He is averaging eight receptions for 90 yards per game, with one TD. He caught eight passes for 97 yards last time these two teams met, and since then Zach Miller and Ladarius Green both had big days against the Giants defense. They may have done well against Eric Ebron last week, but as the linchpin of the offense he is poised to have another solid week.

Matchups We Hate

Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)

Since returning from injury, Mathews has averaged 5.37 YPC (35 rushes for 188 yards). He led the team in carries the week he returned, but the injury to Wendell Smallwood opened the door further for Mathews. He got six more touches last week, turning those into 133 total yards with a TD. That was a surprising game for Mathews against a good Ravens defense. Things won’t get easier against the Giants, who have allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards in the league this season and the third lowest YPC at 3.6 yards. Darren Sproles potentially returning also puts a damper on Mathews’ outlook, since he will handle the majority if not all of the passing downs. Mathews was able to have a good day against the Ravens, let’s see if he keeps it going against another stout defense.

Notable Players

Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)

After heading into last week with a questionable tag, Matthews played last week and had a mediocre fantasy day at best. He got the volume he needed, just couldn’t break free for any big plays. He caught 6-of-11 targets for only 27 yards, but could not get anything going after the catch. Working in the slot means he is a little more volume and TD dependent, so this is something that will happen from time to time with him. The Giants haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns over their past 10 games, meaning if Matthews doesn’t get one early he likely won’t get one at all. Last time these two teams met he caught six passes for 88 yards. The Giants have had slot receivers do some damage to them; Cole Beasley, Golden Tate, and Antonio Brown (who lines up everywhere) have all done well against them in recent weeks. Volume will make Matthews’ floor high, but for a good day he will need to reach the end zone.

Paul Perkins (RB, NYG)

Shane Vereen made his return from injury against the Cowboys two weeks ago, and was used sparingly before he re-tore his triceps muscle last week. He would have made an impact in the receiving game, splitting the RB work into thirds between Perkins and Rashad Jennings. Vereen now gone again means we still have a 50-50 split in the Giants backfield. Perkins has been more effective, averaging 4.2 YPC over the past three weeks compared to Jennings’ 2.6 YPC. Jennings has received more rushing attempts over that span (39-to-33), and will continue getting his fair share due to his excellent blocking abilities. Perkins is clearly the more effective RB, and he will hopefully now claim more of the passing down work with Vereen out of the picture.

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)

If you’re struggling to find a WR3 or flex option this week, you could do worse than Shepard. He has scored a touchdown in five of the past seven games, giving him seven touchdowns this season. However, in the two games he did not score he was abysmal; in one game he caught three passes for 39 yards, and in the other he was not targeted, but he had one rush for 22 yards. Even in the games he scored a TD, he only averages four receptions for 44 yards. As mentioned before the Eagles give up a ton of yards to opposing WR, which may keep Shepard relevant. With OBJ garnering most of the looks, Shepard is a low floor-moderate ceiling WR3.