RADIO
Survive and advance. That is the name of the game for this week as many fantasy football leagues are in their semifinal match-ups. It's exciting if you are still in the dance, but also very stressful for some of you with tough start/sit decisions.
The fear of starting the wrong guy can haunt you all week and over-analyzing some situations can lead to paralysis by analysis. My advice, start your studs who got you to the playoffs regardless of matchup, including guys like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Todd Gurley, Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers (if Rodgers plays).
For those of you with tougher start/sit questions, I turn to the consistency charts to find the best plays at each position for floor or ceiling.
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Quarterbacks
Is Ben Roethlisberger back to his old ways? Big Ben had a terrible start to the 2017 season, and after his five-interception game against the Jaguars, many people (myself included) were ready to write him off as a fantasy asset. However, after his Week 9 bye, Big Ben has been electric on the field and has become an elite fantasy quarterback for the second half of 2017. Since Week 10, Roethlisberger has not finished outside the top-10 among quarterbacks and has posted two QB1 performances and a QB2 performance.
In fact, over the last five weeks, Roethlisberger has the second highest COR among quarterbacks, behind only the potential 2017 MVP Russell Wilson. Big Ben faces the Patriots at home this week and the Texans in Houston in Week 16. Against the Patriots, Roethlisberger is a top-10 quarterback as I expect the game to be very high scoring in Pittsburgh. Championship week in Houston, owners may be scared to play him on the road, but the Texans are top-five on the year in most points allowed to the QB position. The weapons around Ben make him a safe play on the road and his ability to throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns makes him a safe but high-upside play in Weeks 15 and 16. Plug him in your starting lineups with confidence.
Running Backs
There is one running back that needs to be talked about that is not on the list above: Alex Collins. He does not make the consistency chart above because he has not been consistent throughout the entire season. To be fair, Collins didn't become a regular starter until Week 6, so his numbers are a little skewed by his early time as a backup. However, if we look at his numbers since becoming the starter, Collins would in the middle of the pack on the charts, with a COR of 39.59. It took some time for Collins to start producing as a starting running back for fantasy, but now that he has, he hasn't looked back.
Over the past five weeks, Collins ranks fourth among running backs in COR behind Todd Gurley, LeVeon Bell, and JD McKissic (McKissic makes the list as an extremely consistent fantasy producer, scoring 8-10 points in every week since Week 10). Collins is averaging almost 20 fantasy points per game since Week 10, with a 4.57 standard deviation. In fact, since Collins bye week in Week 10, he has scored two less points in Weeks 11-14 than Todd Gurley. He is heating up at the right time for fantasy owners, and plays the Browns and the Colts in Weeks 15 and 16. Collins should be started with confidence as a high RB2 with RB1 upside and could be a major player on championship rosters.
Wide Receivers
Is it possible for a receiver to be hurt by the return of a future Hall of Fame quarterback? If you are Davante Adams, it just might. Now, I am not going to say he is no longer a WR2 for fantasy, but I advise tempered expectations for Adams with Aaron Rodgers back. In 2017, we have a five-game sample size with Rodgers and an eight game sample with Brett Hundley; Adams averages slightly less targets, receptions, and yards, but nearly one touchdown per game with Rodgers at the helm.
We can see how consistent Adams has been with Hundley in the chart above. He is tenth in COR among receivers over the past five weeks, with four WR1 performances of 19 points or more in that time span. However, when we compare his numbers in the first half of the season with the second half, the numbers are drastically different. In Adams' five games with Rodgers, he posted two top-five performances. However, in his other three games, Adams was not even a startable wide receiver, scoring less than ten points in each contest and finishing outside the top-40 among receivers. He is a semi-risky play given his touchdown dependency, then add his two match-ups in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Panthers and Vikings. The Panthers are an easier team to throw on, but the Vikings in championship week is risky business. He is still a very high-upside play, but could hurt your team with a dud. With the Packers battling for a playoff spot, Adams could have a slightly higher floor than usual, but I caution owners thinking they have a sure-fire WR2 for the playoffs.
Tight Ends
Guys, I do not know what to make of Hunter Henry. He has been one of the most up-and-down tight ends this season (although who hasn't) and has the third-highest CV among the top-12 tight ends. There are games when he literally disappears in the box score, recording one or two receptions, if any at all. But other games he looks like a legitimate receiving tight end, putting up 7/80/1 stat lines in random weeks. However, the Chargers offense has been smoking hot in the past few weeks, Hunter Henry included.
Over the past five weeks, Henry is eighth among tight ends in COR. In fact, Henry has been an elite fantasy tight end in each of the past five weeks, scoring over 15 points finishing as a top-10 tight end in each contest. He is a risky play on a weekly basis given his knack for disappearing in games, but can be a very rewarding play when he hits. I have advocated for both Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen as potential league winners given their schedule and the way the Chargers offense has been playing. I think Henry can definitely be added to list of reliable and explosive Chargers weapons in the next two weeks.
Flex
