Week 13 Sleeper Fantasy Football Picks - Snap Counts, Targets, Usage Analysis

November 29, 2023

Joey analyzes 5 sleeper fantasy football picks for Week 13 based on recent increases in snap counts and usage. Should I start these fantasy football sleepers?

The fantasy football playoffs are right around the corner. As we enter Week 13, two more regular-season games are left before the playoffs start in most leagues. That means it is almost must-win territory for most fantasy managers. Unless you already clinched a playoff spot, you are still fighting for one.

An article like this could be a perfect tool to use for Week 13, to see which player's usage increased or decreased from the prior week. This time around, I will be looking at which running back, wide receiver, and/or tight end saw their snap count or usage surprisedly go up or down.

Let's waste no time and dive into last week's stats to help fantasy managers set their lineups for Week 13 and beyond.

Surprisingly High Snap Count/Usage From Last Week

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: 78% snap share 

Week 12 was exactly why we drafted New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy this year. The third-year back saw a season-high 78% of the team's offensive snaps and totaled 26 touches in the loss. Those 26 touches are the most this year and the second-most of his career.

Stevenson ran the ball 21 times for 98 yards and one touchdown while catching five passes for nine yards. The 25-year-old back has come alive for fantasy managers in recent weeks, and it seems the Patriots have finally given him full control of this backfield. In Week 9, he finished as the RB3. In Week 10, he saw 20 carries, and just last week, he finished as the RB10 in fantasy.

Stevenson has seen his snap share increase in three straight games, while backup running back Ezekiel Elliott has seen his decline in three straight. Elliott played a season-low 22% of the Patriots snaps in the loss last week, and with the recent usage, Stevenson is a must-start RB2 every week moving forward.

RB Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears: 74% snap share

When watching the Chicago Bears on Monday night, you can tell that rookie running back Roschon Johnson saw a lot of snaps. As a matter of fact, Johnson saw a career-high 74% of the Bears' offensive snaps in the win – pushing Khalil Herbert to the bench for most of the game. Herbert saw just 21% of the snaps while only touching the ball eight times. 

On the other hand, Johnson had 15 touches behind 10 carries for 35 yards and five catches for 40 yards in the game. Fantasy managers have been waiting for the rookie to run away with the starting job, and it appears we finally got that after he saw 52-of-70 possible snaps on Monday.

The snap count and usage are both encouraging signs for Johnson moving forward. The Bears also have a bye in Week 13, which will give the coaches more time to draw up more plays for the rookie. However, he likely can't be trusted in Chicago's offense right now, especially with games against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns following the bye.

RB Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens: 46% snap share 

Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell was on this exact same list last week following a season-high 36% snap share and nine touches. Well, in Week 12, the rookie outdid himself by playing a season-high 46% of the Ravens' offensive snaps and seeing 11 touches.

Mitchell's snap share has increased in four straight games, dating back to his pro debut in Week 7. His playing time has gone from 3% to 18% to 24% to 36%, and now to 46% in Week 12. It's safe to say the rookie has fully taken over this Ravens backfield and is the running back to start in this offense.

Mitchell ran nine times for 64 yards while also catching two passes for 25 yards in Baltimore's win last week. Gus Edwards saw just 19 snaps, and Justice Hill played 20 snaps. But it was the rookie who out-snapped them both by playing a season-high 33 snaps.

Other Players To Note: 

• CLE Jerome Ford (70% snap share)
• PIT Pat Freiermuth (11 targets, nine catches for 120 yards) 

Surprisingly Low Snap Count/Usage From Last Week

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: 42% snap share

Since Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner has returned from a four-game absence following a knee injury, he hasn't done much. In Week 10, he finished with 16 carries for 73 yards, and in Week 11, he had 14 carries for 62 yards. One encouraging sign was his continued high snap share. Conner played over 62% of the team snaps in both of those contests. 

However, in Week 12, the veteran saw a season-low 42% of Arizona's offensive snaps in the team's blowout loss. He finished with just six carries for 27 yards while catching four passes for just five yards. With the Cardinals trailing for most of the game, it was Michael Carter and Emari Demercado getting most of the work out of the backfield. Carter also winded up playing just three fewer snaps than Conner in the contest. 

The 42% snap share was a season-low for Conner, which is not great fantasy news. With matchups against the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles upcoming in Week 15 and Week 17, you have to hope those games are not blowouts, so the veteran back can see more opportunities on offense. 

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: three catches for 18 yards

If you drafted Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp this year, chances are you have been frustrated with his performance. Since Kupp finished as the WR12 and WR3 in his first two games this season, he has been one of the most disappointing fantasy players in the league. 

That continued in Week 12 behind a three-catch, 18-yard performance. That now marked the fifth straight game Kupp has failed to catch more than five catches or total more than 50 yards. Last season, Kupp past that threshold in seven of eight full games he played in. 

It has been an unusual five-game stretch for the former All-Pro wideout. Since Week 7, Kupp has just 12 catches for 127 yards. That averages out to just 2.4 catches for 25.4 yards per game. It's going to be hard for managers to bench Kupp, but his recent production is not helping any fantasy rosters. 

Other Players To Note: 

• DET David Montgomery (27% snap share with Detroit Lions falling behind)
• HOU Dameon Pierce (18% snap share in return from ankle injury)

More Fantasy Football Analysis