November 24, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Thursday Night Football (TNF) matchups analysis and lineup starts/sits for Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season. Players to target or avoid for fantasy football lineups.

Happy Thanksgiving Rotoballers! It's time for the Week 12 installment of Thursday night matchups with my start/sit recommendations. This week, we have a trio of games including Minnesota @ Detroit, Washington @ Dallas, and Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down every game and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and injury information as well. Later this week, you will find parts one and two of our Week 12 NFL matchups, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Vikings @ Lions - Thursday 11/24 @ 12:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Eric Ebron (TE, DET)

Over the past three weeks, Eric Ebron has emerged as a TE1 play in fantasy. After two straight seven reception performances, Ebron was held to only three catches last game. Luckily, one of those receptions went for 61 yards, and he later capped that drive off with a one yard rushing touchdown on a jet sweep play. Ebron’s size and athleticism make these types of plays possible for him. Over the past three games he is third on the team in targets with 23, but only one behind Theo Riddick (24) and two behind Golden Tate (25). The Vikings have allowed opposing TEs to score touchdowns in each of the past two weeks, and back in Week 9 Ebron torched this defense for 92 yards on seven receptions.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET)

As mentioned above, Riddick is seeing a ton of volume in the passing game of late with 24 targets over the past three weeks. His 56 targets total on the season place him fourth in the league among RBs. This week he faces a Vikings defense that on the whole has been stingy against RBs, yielding the 13^th fewest fantasy points to the position. However, over the past four weeks RBs have been able to find some success against this team. Jordan Howard and David Johnson were both able to crack the 100-yard mark, with Robert Kelly coming within three yards. Riddick ran for 70 in Week 9, but on only 14 carries (5.0 YPC). The uptick in targets along with the Vikings defense showing some weaknesses make Riddick a strong play in Week 12.

Matchups We Hate

Golden Tate (WR, DET)

Heading into the bye week, Tate has made a huge turnaround in his season over the four games prior. In those games Tate saw 43 targets, hauling in 32 receptions for 379 yards and two scores. Coming out of the bye, Tate saw only four targets, his lowest total since Week 4. He only caught three passes for 27 yards against the Jaguars, and this week things will get much more difficult for all the Lions WRs. The Vikings defense has slipped a little of late, but they have still been one of the best teams in the league at covering opposing WRs. They have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, making this a difficult matchup for Tate to rebound in unless his targets improve to pre-bye week levels.

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)

Stefon Diggs has been the WR1 for the Vikings all season long, but he will face an uphill battle this week against the Lions. Diggs is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury heading into the week, with head coach Mike Zimmer unsure if he will play. Even if he does, he should be benched this week since he would not be playing at 100%. In games this season where Diggs is on the injury report leading up to the game, (three games played, one missed due to injury) he averages 7.13 points in PPR leagues. When he is fully healthy he is a beast, averaging 20.78 points in PPR leagues when he is not listed on the injury report. Keep an eye on his status heading into the game, but I would sit Diggs until he is fully healthy.

UPDATE: Diggs is inactive for today, which should result in Adam Thielen getting a bump in targets and fantasy production. In PPR leagues, he is an especially interesting option for lineups. He's seen at least five targets in five of the past six weeks, a trend that should continue, and will be returning punts as well.

Notable Players

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)

Rudolph has seen his targets decrease since the change at offensive coordinator was made, averaging 4.6 per game compared to 7.7 per game under Norv Turner. In two of the past three games, he has been held to two catches or less with less than 15 yards. Fortunately for Rudolph owners, he has two TD in the past three games. In the one game he did have more than two catches, he hauled in five passes for 69 yards. With Diggs potentially out in this one, Rudolph could be in line for a bigger game, especially given the matchup. The Lions have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs in the league this season.

Redskins @ Cowboys - Thursday 11/24 @ 4:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Pierre Garcon (WR, WAS)

Pierre Garcon was an afterthought in this offense when the year started, but now is a staple in this Redskins offense. Over the past three games, Garcon leads the team in targets with 24, one more than Jordan Reed and two more than Jamison Crowder. With defenses now forced to hone in on stopping Robert Kelley, QB Kirk Cousins has been able to spread the ball around the field effectively. Garcon has been a huge benefactor of this, with 18 receptions for 264 yards and a TD over his past three games. Over the past two weeks the Cowboys secondary has been eaten alive by Antonio Brown and Steve Smith Sr. Garcon should be a solid play this week, and a good option as a flex player moving forward.

Jason Witten (TE, DAL)

Jason Witten has been a consistent producer for rookie QB Dak Prescott all season long. Since the bye week Witten has seen 28 targets, with an average of seven per game. The Redskins defense gives up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing TEs on the season, but over the past three weeks they have been especially bad. They allowed an average stat line of seven receptions for 92 yards and a TD to the trio of Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph, and Jared Cook. With another heavily utilized TE coming to town, Witten should be able to feast on Thanksgiving Day. He is a more capable TE in PPR formats, but he should be a playable option in all leagues this week.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

Elliott has been a one man wrecking crew all season long behind the best offensive line in football. He leads the league in rushing with 1,102 yards, while crushing every opponent who has tried to stop him. He has rushed for at least 92 yards in every game since Week 2. That was the first game Elliott faced the Skins; he rushed 21 times for 83 yards and a TD on the day. The Redskins have given up the ninth most fantasy points to the RB position this season, and with Elliott running as good as he is now, Washington’s run defense is in for a long day. He is among the elite fantasy options once again this week.

Matchups We Hate

Rob Kelley (RB, WAS)

After surpassing the fumble-prone Matt Jones, Robert Kelley has found a nice home in this pass-first offense. Over the past three games, he has rushed an average of 22 times for 107 yards with four TD (three last game alone). His success has helped open up the passing game for Cousins, and the offense is rolling right now. Those three games came against some pretty good run defenses (Packers, Vikings, Bengals), but the Cowboys have been even better this season. They have given up the third fewest rushing yards to RBs this season, and have given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to the position. If Dallas can get in and disrupt Kelley, it might be a tough one for the entire offense.

Notable Players

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

Crowder has been a surprisingly huge fantasy asset all season long. Although he is third on the team in targets behind Reed and Garcon, he has been able to make the most of his opportunities. Last week he saw only three targets, but caught all three for 102 yards and a TD. He nearly had another score, but was brought down on the goal line after a 53-yard gain. If he continues getting only 3-to-4 targets the odds of him doing this well again are slim, but if anyone is capable of a repeat performance like this one, it's Crowder.

Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)

In the four games since Bryant returned to the Cowboys, he has had three spectacular games and one ugly outlier. The dud game was a one-catch, 19 yard performance. In the other three games, Dez has combined for 16 catches for 309 yards and four TD. That averages out to five receptions for 103 yards and a TD per game, putting him in the fantasy WR1 conversation even without Tony Romo throwing him the ball. It has been reported that Josh Norman won’t shadow Dez, but that doesn’t mean he won’t see a healthy amount of him this week. If you own Bryant you are 100% starting him; the budding chemistry between he and Dak Prescott is flourishing too well to bench him.

Steelers @ Colts - Thursday 11/24 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Frank Gore (RB, IND)

With starting QB Andrew Luck looking like he will be out this week, expect a heavier dose of Frank Gore than normal this week against the Steelers. Though Luck being out hurts the entire offense, it doesn’t mean Gore can’t have an effective day. This Steelers defense will be more likely to stack the box with Scott Tolzien at the helm, giving Gore increased touches against a stacked defense. However, the Steelers have not been good at defending the run this season; they have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs in the league. If this game ends in a blowout, Gore could end the day with a few dump-off catches under his belt also.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)

Though the home/road splits of Ben Roethlisberger are severe and well documented, the same does not apply to Antonio Brown. He is in the midst of another stellar season, and over the past four weeks he has been a huge difference maker.  Over the past four games (two home, two away), Brown is averaging nine receptions on 13 targets for 105 yards. He has two TD in those four games. As long as Big Ben is healthy Brown is going to be heavily targeted and highly productive in the Steelers strike first, ask questions later offense.

Matchups We Hate

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

As mentioned above, Roethlisberger just isn’t the same QB on the road. His splits historically support this claim, and you can see the difference over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago at home against a solid Cowboys defense, Ben completed 37-of-46 passes (80.4%) for 408 yards and three TD. Last week against the Browns in Cleveland, he completed 23-of-36 passes (63.9%) for 167 yards with zero TD. This matchup on paper looks good for Roethlisberger, but the fact that it is in Indianapolis should worry owners a bit.

Notable Players

Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)

After failing to find the end zone in his first five games this season, Bell has been able to find pay dirt each of the past two weeks. Last week he posted his highest yardage total of the season, rushing 28 times for 146 yards and a score, along with eight receptions for 55 yards. Bell has yet to have a game with less than five receptions, making him that much more valuable in PPR leagues. In a game where the Steelers are projected to win with the Colts not having Andrew Luck available, we will see a heavy dose of Bell again this week.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)

Hilton and the other Colts WRs were already going to have a tough enough time as it is with this Steelers secondary, now they will have to try to be effective without their signal caller Andrew Luck. Luck is likely going to miss this game, meaning Scott Tolzien will be in for the Colts. Tolzien hasn’t started since 2013, when he came in for an injured Aaron Rodgers. Tolzien will limit the entire offense, hindering the production of Hilton and Donte Moncrief. The Steelers have given up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season as it is, making it extremely difficult to trust any Colts player in this matchup outside of Gore.