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Expert Week 1 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season has arrived, and Week 1 offers a full slate of opportunities in the touchdown market. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
David Montgomery, RB - Houston Texans (+100, Fanatics)
Houston specifically brought in Montgomery to improve its rushing and red-zone efficiency. Montgomery should immediately slot in as the heavy favorite for high-value touches around the goal line that often lead to touchdowns.
Montgomery racked up an impressive 33 touchdowns in 45 games across three years in Detroit, with his role taking a significant hit when Jahmyr Gibbs emerged as a legitimate every-down back last season.
When Montgomery held sole possession of the goal-line role his first two years in Detroit, he posted a much more efficient 25 touchdowns in 28 games. And that is the role he projects for in Houston, with Woody Marks spelling him occasionally.
The Week 1 matchup for Monty against Buffalo could not be set up any better, as the Bills allowed the most rushing touchdowns in football last season.
BET: 1.0 units to win 1.0 units.
Chris Olave, WR - New Orleans Saints (+165, Fanatics)
Olave is coming off his best season as a pro, catching 100 balls for 1,163 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025. His production increased notably when Tyler Shough was installed as the starting quarterback, especially in the scoring department.
The former 11th-overall pick scored three touchdowns in his first seven games, but he nearly doubled his production to six touchdowns in nine games with Shough under center.
Chris Olave 62-yard touchdown. pic.twitter.com/RvUDZZF5xZ
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) November 9, 2025
Olave also ranked fourth in the entire league with a 30.2% target share in the red zone. First-round rookie Jordyn Tyson is out with an ankle injury and will not yet be a factor for the Saints, which leaves Olave as a candidate for a massive workload.
The former Buckeye also draws an elite matchup against a Lions secondary that is missing Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph due to injuries and released former first-rounder Terrion Arnold in the offseason due to off-field issues. Only eight teams allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than the Lions in 2025.
BET: 0.75 units to win 1.24 units.
Dallas Goedert, TE - Philadelphia Eagles (+230, Caesars)
Goedert is coming off the best scoring season of his career, smashing his previous high of five touchdowns by finding the box 11 times in 2025. The underlying data backs up that production as well, as he was second in the entire league with a 41% target share inside the 10-yard line.
In addition to elite usage in scoring position, A.J. Brown has since been traded away, and a change at Offensive Coordinator is expected to improve the efficiency of the offense (read: more scoring chances).
DALLAS (Goedert) TOUCHDOWN AGAIN pic.twitter.com/E6gqV2cQRM
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 28, 2025
Goedert draws an elite matchup in Week 1 as the Eagles enter with a healthy team total above 25 points. The Commanders allowed the second-most touchdowns to the tight end position in 2025.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.15 units.
Garrett Wilson, WR - New York Jets (+250, FanDuel)
Wilson enters the 2026 campaign healthy after dealing with recurring knee injuries in 2025. We can debate whether the quarterback position and overall offense have been upgraded for the Jets, but the Offensive Coordinator position is almost certainly an upgrade.
New coordinator Frank Reich brings Super Bowl experience and development success with quarterbacks in Philadelphia and Indianapolis to the table, compared to the inexperience of last season's OC.
Wilson is locked in as the alpha wide receiver in the Jets offense, and he scored four touchdowns in his first five games of 2025 before a knee injury ended his season in Week 7.
A Week 1 matchup against Tennessee sets Wilson up for another fast start, as the Titans allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to wide receivers last season.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.25 units.
Malik Willis, QB - Miami Dolphins (+310, DraftKings)
In a volatile market like anytime touchdown scorer, I often lean into longer odds that have value. Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis is a relative unknown as far as NFL starting quarterbacks go, but every time he has been given an opportunity, he has put his unique rushing ability on display.
Willis has started just six games in his NFL career, but he has an impressive four rushing touchdowns in those six starts. Now locked in as the starter in Miami after impressing in Green Bay last season, these odds seem far too wide. Considering the ATD odds of other elite rushing quarterbacks like Josh Allen (+130) and Jalen Hurts (+135), this feels like a real steal above +300.
Further improving the outlook for Willis, only two teams allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks than the Raiders in 2025.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.55 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
Omarion Hampton, RB - Los Angeles Chargers (+440, FanDuel)
I generally prefer much longer odds in the extremely volatile first-touchdown scorer market, but this is too good a spot to pass up. Hampton is expected to be a workhorse back in an improved offense.
The Chargers open the season as the biggest favorite on the Week 1 slate, with a home matchup against one of the worst rosters on paper entering the 2026 season.
Los Angeles has two elite offensive tackles who combined to play just six games in 2025, but they both enter 2026 with a clean bill of health. As a result, the offensive line should be much improved, and the Chargers have also added an elite offensive mind in Mike McDaniel as the primary play caller.
In addition to Los Angeles' O-line and play-caller improvements, Arizona allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league last year. I expect the Chargers to be able to move the ball with ease all afternoon long, and the odds of Hampton capping the opening drive with a score look promising.
BET: 0.25 units to win 1.1 units.
