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Way Too Early 2017 Breakouts - Quarterback

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler continues analyzing potential breakout candidates for 2017 with a focus on the quarterback (QB) position.

The 2016 season is but a faint memory, and the 2017 season seems ages away. We've yet to go through the NFL combine, let alone the draft. Absent those distractions, this seems like a perfect time to consider which quarterbacks could have breakout campaigns.

Unlike the running back position, the QB position is generally quite stable. Scoring at the QB position tends to be more bunched up than at other positions, so breakout is a relative term. That said, here are three signal callers who could post better than expected performances in 2017.

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Early Breakout Candidates: QB

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz started all 16 games as a rookie, something worth noting. It wasn't a great performance by any means. A 16:14 TD to interception ratio is nothing to write home about, nor is a QB rating of just 79.3. His 3,782 passing yards were just 18th-best, and his 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt (AYA, a measure of efficiency that accounts for yards, TDs, interceptions, and sacks) were 28th. Ouch.

So why the optimism? Wentz had the fifth-most pass attempts last year, so any improvement in effectiveness, combined with a similar volume, could really boost his numbers. On the same volume, a half-percentage point of improvement in his TD rate would produce about three more TDs. A similar improvement in his interception rate would cut about two interceptions. Improving his yards per attempt to seven would net over 450 additional passing yards. All three of those improvements would still leave him at below-league-average rates, so it's not like forecasting some amazing growth. But if he could hit those benchmarks, he'd be in the mix for the QB1 fantasy tier.

Wentz could mature enough just on his own to meet those improved numbers. As a first-year signal caller he has a lot of room for growth. He could also stand to get some help. So far this offseason, the Eagles have been linked with wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Torrey Smith, and Alshon Jeffery as free agent targets. Adding a WR through the draft is also a possibility. Whatever happens, it seems like the Eagles are looking to boost their receiving corps, and that could also boost his numbers.

I don't think Wentz will be an elite fantasy option, but I think he could be much better than he was last year, and given his likely cheap cost in fantasy drafts, he could be a boon to your roster as a second quarterback.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles' 2016 season was widely considered a disaster, and it was from a real football point of view. For fantasy purposes however, he was still at top-10 performer. I think he could do as well - or better - in 2017. It's helpful to remember that despite having three seasons under his belt, Bortles is still just 24 years old. He was a very young prospect and still has time to grow as a QB.

What if Bortles isn't as bad as his 2016 performance? What if he isn't as good as his 2015 performance? What if the truth lies somewhere in the middle? If we average those two seasons we get 4,167 passing yards, 29 TDS, 17 interceptions, and 346 yards rushing. Those numbers would have been good for a QB5 finish this season.

Technically, that's not much of a breakout from this year's QB8 finish, but I think an improvement is the last thing most people expect from Bortles. Even a modest improvement, coupled with a low ADP could make him a great asset.

Bortles could have a better cast around him too. The Jaguars just jettisoned Julius Thomas, who added nothing as a receiver. In exchange they're getting tackle Brandon Albert. That upgrade to their offensive line could help Bortles. Bortles already has two quality WRs in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but Marqise Lee started to emerge last year as well. Bortles could have one of the youngest and most productive receiving corps in the league. He has been largely dismissed as a fantasy starter, but it's too early to overlook these reasons for optimism.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco

Hold the phone, what? Bear with me. Obviously, a lot would have to go right for Kaepernick for him to be considered a breakout candidate. For starters, he needs a team. There's a chance that San Francisco keeps him, in which case he'd get to work with Kyle Shanahan. Not a bad thing at all. Kaepernick averaged over 21 points per game last season, and went over 19 points in eight of 11 games. Shanahan gets some credit for helping Kirk Cousins develop and he helped Matt Ryan win an MVP award. Perhaps he could help Kaepernick as well. If nothing else, Shanahan has overseen some high volume passing games, and given the state of the 49ers defense, that should continue. Finally, San Francisco has a ton of available cap space, and they could very well improve their receiving weapons in free agency.

Things obviously get dicier if Kaepernick leaves San Francisco, but there are a number of teams around the league that could use a QB, and there's a decent chance Kaepernick gets to compete for a starting job. We already know he can produce low-end starting QB numbers without elite receiving options, so I'm not too worried about where he'd end up. It's obviously a risk to pursue Kaepernick at this point in time, but keep an eye on him. If he ends up back in San Francisco, he could have a great season. If he ends up elsewhere, he could still produce starter-level numbers. If you can time it right, you'll be able to get him for next to nothing.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cameron Johnson

to Miss Time With Bone Bruise in Right Knee
Jaxson Hayes

Considered Questionable for Christmas Matchup
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Return Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith

Could Make Season Debut on Christmas Day
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Uncertain for Christmas Day
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Listed as Questionable for Christmas Game
Al Horford

on Track to Return Thursday
Jaden McDaniels

Iffy for Christmas Day
Brandon Williams

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
P.J. Washington

at Risk of Missing Second Straight Game
Klay Thompson

Likely to Play on Christmas Day
Max Christie

Probable for Christmas Day
Ajay Mitchell

Out on Christmas Day
Chet Holmgren

Available on Christmas Day
Lonzo Ball

Available Against Knicks
Evan Mobley

Listed as Questionable for Christmas Tilt
OG Anunoby

Returns to Action Thursday
Jalen Brunson

Available on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Expected to Play on Christmas Day Against the Vikings
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Cam Whitmore

Out Indefinitely With Deep Vein Thrombosis
Corey Kispert

Lasts for 13 Minutes in Comeback Game
Jaxson Hayes

Makes Early Exit Versus Suns
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
DK Metcalf

has Two-Game Suspension Upheld
Philip Rivers

to Remain the Starter in Week 17
George Kittle

Dealing With Mid-to-Low Ankle Sprain
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
Deshaun Watson

Will Not be Activated Off PUP List, 2025 Season is Over
J.J. McCarthy

Ruled Out for Week 17
Rome Odunze

Expected to Return This Season
Christian McCaffrey

Another Monster Game for Christian McCaffrey in Week 16
Brock Purdy

Throws for Five Touchdowns in Week 16
TreVeyon Henderson

in Concussion Protocol, Week 17 Status Unclear
George Kittle

Week 17 Availability in Question?
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Rashee Rice

Still in Concussion Protocol, Estimated as Non-Participant on Monday
J.J. McCarthy

Listed as DNP on Monday Ahead of Week 17
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
DK Metcalf

Suspended for Two Games Following Confrontation with Fan
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays
CFB

Darian Mensah Returning to Duke Next Season
CFB

Josh Hoover Linked to Indiana in Transfer Portal
CFB

Arch Manning Agrees to Reduced Compensation for 2026 Season

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