Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Week 16 (12/22/19)

The Bills went into Pittsburgh a week ago and held down the Steelers for a playoff-clinching win. It certainly wasn’t an exciting game, but Buffalo did exactly what the public expected them to do. Josh Allen isn’t going to take over a game through the air, but he is going to make things tough on a defense. He’s now rushed for nine touchdowns on top of the 18 he has passing. Devin Singletary and Frank Gore aren’t very exciting, though as a team, they've rushed for over 100 yards in five of the last seven. On the the defensive side, the Bills Defense has really stepped up their play over the past two months, allowing just 14 points per game in the last seven. Although, that includes games against the Browns, Dolphins, Broncos, and Steelers.

New England had an interesting rout of Cincinnati last week but ultimately it ended up in the blowout everyone expected. Tom Brady is starting to show signs of Father Time; he has thrown for over 270 yards just once over the last eight games. The three-headed backfield of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead is as inconsistent as it’s been in recent memory, which doesn’t bode well heading into playoff time. Defensively, they returned to early-season form last week, picking off Andy Dalton four times, and they’ve allowed 20 or more points just three times this season.

The Bills are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road, while New England is just 3-3 ATS at home. The last time these two met, the Bills kept it within a touchdown at home. However, too many people are starting to doubt the Patriots and that’s just what Bill Belichick and company wants you to do.

Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are nearly unstoppable and have already or will soon set NFL records at their respective positions. However, Alvina Kamara sure has been a massive disappointment this season; he hasn’t rushed for over 75 yards since Week 1 and has scored just once on the ground. Defensively, they’ve been just short of elite at stopping the run this season, and on the road, they’ve allowed just 73 rushing yards per game. Through the air, it’s not quite as stout, though they do rank 10th in DVOA.

Tennessee’s 6-2 record since Ryan Tannehill took the reins in Week 7 is still one of the top storylines in the AFC this season. While he’s been outstanding, this is Derrick Henry’s offense and his 748 yards and eight touchdowns in the last six games speaks for itself. The Titans Defense has been having some issues stopping the pass of late, but their run defense has held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in three of the last five games. That doesn't spell success in a tough matchup.

The Saints are 11-3 ATS on the road over the last two seasons and the cards are certainly aligning for a nice playoff run in The Big Easy. I look for their run defense to slow up Henry just enough that Tannehill will have to stop out of his comfort zone, which isn’t what the Titans need fighting for a playoff berth.

Dallas snapped a three-game skid by handily taking care of the Rams, but at 7-7, few really know what team will show up every week. Dak Prescott and his receivers have been quite inconsistent recently, which could explain the 2-4 record over their last six. In the backfield with him, Ezekiel Elliott has been called upon a bit less over that span, but has still managed to find pay dirt six times. Defensively, the Cowboys are in the bottom half in DVOA and have allowed 21 or more in five of the last six.

The Eagles are decimated in the passing game, which doesn’t bode well for Carson Wentz. While he still has Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, Wentz hasn’t been exactly a beacon of hope in Philadelphia this year. Miles Sanders has been trending up over the last month, and last week was his first career game hitting the century mark. Meanwhile, the Eagles Defense has struggled over the last three weeks against the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins, respectively, so a matchup with the Cowboys isn’t encouraging.

When Philly is on the road the year, the under is 5-2, while the under is 2-5 when Dallas is on the road. With as banged up as the Eagles are on offense and as inconsistent as the Cowboys are, expect this divisional matchup to be low scoring