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Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for 12/22/19. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Rough week to return to picking games as almost everything I predicted, the opposite happened but you'll have these weekends in sports betting. Tampa Bay wasn't far off from hitting the game total themselves, while Pittsburgh really dropped the ball at home against Buffalo. Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!
- Week 15 Picks: 1-3 (25%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 28-30 (48%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Buffalo at New England (-6.5)
O/U: 37 **This game is on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 4:30pm
The Bills went into Pittsburgh a week ago and held down the Steelers for a playoff-clinching win. It certainly wasn’t an exciting game, but Buffalo did exactly what the public expected them to do. Josh Allen isn’t going to take over a game through the air, but he is going to make things tough on a defense. He’s now rushed for nine touchdowns on top of the 18 he has passing. Devin Singletary and Frank Gore aren’t very exciting, though as a team, they've rushed for over 100 yards in five of the last seven. On the the defensive side, the Bills Defense has really stepped up their play over the past two months, allowing just 14 points per game in the last seven. Although, that includes games against the Browns, Dolphins, Broncos, and Steelers.
New England had an interesting rout of Cincinnati last week but ultimately it ended up in the blowout everyone expected. Tom Brady is starting to show signs of Father Time; he has thrown for over 270 yards just once over the last eight games. The three-headed backfield of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead is as inconsistent as it’s been in recent memory, which doesn’t bode well heading into playoff time. Defensively, they returned to early-season form last week, picking off Andy Dalton four times, and they’ve allowed 20 or more points just three times this season.
The Bills are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road, while New England is just 3-3 ATS at home. The last time these two met, the Bills kept it within a touchdown at home. However, too many people are starting to doubt the Patriots and that’s just what Bill Belichick and company wants you to do.
Pick: New England -6.5
New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5)
O/U: 50
Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are nearly unstoppable and have already or will soon set NFL records at their respective positions. However, Alvina Kamara sure has been a massive disappointment this season; he hasn’t rushed for over 75 yards since Week 1 and has scored just once on the ground. Defensively, they’ve been just short of elite at stopping the run this season, and on the road, they’ve allowed just 73 rushing yards per game. Through the air, it’s not quite as stout, though they do rank 10th in DVOA.
Tennessee’s 6-2 record since Ryan Tannehill took the reins in Week 7 is still one of the top storylines in the AFC this season. While he’s been outstanding, this is Derrick Henry’s offense and his 748 yards and eight touchdowns in the last six games speaks for itself. The Titans Defense has been having some issues stopping the pass of late, but their run defense has held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in three of the last five games. That doesn't spell success in a tough matchup.
The Saints are 11-3 ATS on the road over the last two seasons and the cards are certainly aligning for a nice playoff run in The Big Easy. I look for their run defense to slow up Henry just enough that Tannehill will have to stop out of his comfort zone, which isn’t what the Titans need fighting for a playoff berth.
Pick: New Orleans -2.5
Dallas at Philadelphia (-1.5)
O/U: 46.5
Dallas snapped a three-game skid by handily taking care of the Rams, but at 7-7, few really know what team will show up every week. Dak Prescott and his receivers have been quite inconsistent recently, which could explain the 2-4 record over their last six. In the backfield with him, Ezekiel Elliott has been called upon a bit less over that span, but has still managed to find pay dirt six times. Defensively, the Cowboys are in the bottom half in DVOA and have allowed 21 or more in five of the last six.
The Eagles are decimated in the passing game, which doesn’t bode well for Carson Wentz. While he still has Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, Wentz hasn’t been exactly a beacon of hope in Philadelphia this year. Miles Sanders has been trending up over the last month, and last week was his first career game hitting the century mark. Meanwhile, the Eagles Defense has struggled over the last three weeks against the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins, respectively, so a matchup with the Cowboys isn’t encouraging.
When Philly is on the road the year, the under is 5-2, while the under is 2-5 when Dallas is on the road. With as banged up as the Eagles are on offense and as inconsistent as the Cowboys are, expect this divisional matchup to be low scoring
Pick: Under 46.5
Detroit at Denver (-7)
O/U: 38.5
These Lions are a train wreck, except aside from the old adage, this time everyone is actually looking away. David Blough is a starting quarterback in the NFL and the weapons around him, aside from Kenny Golladay, are anything but exciting. Meanwhile, Denver actually has some bright spots to look forward to, despite a blowout loss a week ago. Drew Lock is the future in Denver, while Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant will make this an offense to pay attention to in the next few years.
Look for Lock to torture a Lions pass defense that is ranked 29th in DVOA, while Phillip Lindsay should get plenty of work against a run defense that allows 124 yards per game on the road. From a scoring perspective, over the past three games, the Broncos have averaged 17 first half points and they should be able to get a fast start in Week 16.
Pick: Denver Over 10.5 1st Half Points
