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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 7/12/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, July 12th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, July 12th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters and MLB Depth Charts for today's slate. Good luck!
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Houston Astros (-210) @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 10
It is hard to gauge what will happen when teams are coming out of the all-star break, so I will make two of my picks here for the teams that already played a game last night, seeing the Rangers come out with a 5-0 win. The Astros shouldn't take too kindly to being shutout on Thursday night and will send the right guy to the mound in Gerrit Cole to even up the series. The Astros have won 13 of the last 16 games that Cole has started, with 10 of those games being won by two or more runs. The odds are a bit too low for my liking to take the Astros on the moneyline, but I'd feel comfortable taking them at -1.5 (-135) due to Cole's recent form.
Normally it's hard to bet the under when picking a team to win -1.5, but a total of 10 gives enough room to win by two and easily stay under the total. Cole has a 1.76 ERA over his last eight starts two or fewer earned runs in four straight starts on the road. The Rangers will send Jesse Chavez to the hill who has been stretched out as a starter over his last five outings, allowing one or fewer earned runs in three of those five starts.
My Pick: Under 10, Astros -1.5
Washington Nationals (-140) @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9.5
We have a matchup of two teams going in opposite directions in the NL East tonight, with the Nationals going 8-2 over their last ten games and the Phillies going 5-5. The Phillies have given up considerable ground to the Nationals over the past month and now come into this series a half game back. This is a big series for both teams and I will give the edge to the Nationals as they send Stephen Strasburg to the hill. It's been a bit of a rocky time for Strasburg, but his team always seems to give him the run support, as he has won seven of his last eight decisions despite recording a 5.70 ERA in June. Nick Pivetta has allowed four or more earned runs in four straight starts and has allowed nine home runs over those starts if you're into betting home run prop bets.
The Nationals have an extremely low team total of 4.5 on my book, which should be pretty easy to attain with Pivetta's recent form and the fact that the Phillies bullpen is the third worst in the past month with a 6.40 ERA.
My Pick: Nationals (-140), Nationals TT Over 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (-164)
O/U: 9.5
When these two teams picked up Chris Archer and Yu Darvish respectively, I'm guessing they expected some big things out of them. The truth is, Archer has been a shell of his former self, and Wrigley Field to Darvish has been like kryptonite to Superman. Archer comes into this game with a horrible 7.89 ERA on the road, allowing six or more earned runs in three of his six road starts. Darvish has been equally as bad at home, allowing a 6.23 ERA.
Darvish has allowed two home runs in three of his last four starts, and with the wind being a non-factor at Wrigley today, there's a good chance a power-hitting Pirates team can put a couple over the fence today. Archer has also struggled with the long ball, including a game in June where he allowed a total of five. I love both offenses in this game today.
My Pick: Over 9.5
Tampa Bay Rays (-164) @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9.5
A 4.99 ERA at home doesn't bode well for Dylan Bundy in this matchup, as he faces the steady Yonny Chirinos and his 3.15 ERA. Chirinos has been the picture of consistency, allowing three or fewer earned runs in every game except two this season. The Rays have excelled on the road, boasting a 26-17 record, while the Orioles have been terrible everywhere but especially at home, with an 11-31 record. The Rays have lost six of Chirinos' last seven starts, mostly due to a lack of run support, but they should have no trouble finding those runs today.
A fun fact is that favorites are 137-72 in the sample size that I tracked, in the first game after the all-star break. Which is mostly due to the better teams having their bullpen arms rested, a stat that should help the Rays in this matchup. The Orioles have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.21 ERA, while the Rays are third best, boasting a 3.71 ERA.
My Pick: Rays (-164)
Nate's YTD picks: 50-34-2 (+11.90 Units)
