Touchdown Predictions for Week 7 - The Fantasy Football Pie Shop

October 19, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts six players who will find the end zone in Week 7.

So much for PSL season (Pumpkin Spice Latte) it’s Pie season baby! That’s right, after switching up the format, we hit three of our seven calls. Even better, these calls were distributed well going 2-1 on locks, 0-2 on solid picks, and 1-1 on our long shots.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

For the third week, we are sticking to this new format. Instead of providing six selections that are uncommon touchdown calls, I will be dividing them into three sections. I will have, a few picks I view to be locked in (most likely superstars), a few picks that I have decent confidence in (Solid Picks), and some deeper picks (Taking Shots). I will then keep track of my success rate within each section. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week Seven Pie Shop.

Locks (3-2)

Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)

Hill has nearly 200 more yards than the next-highest WR this season. Plus, he is leading the position in receiving touchdowns. That’s wild. This team is on fire and so is Hill. To be honest, I was skeptical when he said he was going for 2,000 yards this season. Now, I’m almost certain he’ll reach that mark.

This week he faces a tough Eagles defense that is coming off of their first loss of the season, and to Zach Wilson of all people. This defense has been a pass funnel all season, not allowing a rushing TD to the RB position all season and holding teams to the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they are allowing the fourth most touchdowns to WRs. Lock Hill in for a Pie Shop this Sunday night.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

What a disappointing season it has been for Kelce. Even after missing a game, he is only the TE1 and leading the position in both yards and touchdowns. It’s wild that this actually feels like a down year for the star TE. 

This week he faces a Chargers team that he has a record of torching. From overtime walk-off touchdowns to clutch third downs, he always seems to best Derwin James Jr. I’m going slightly off-brand here as the Chargers have been fairly stout against the TE position this season. However, Kelce isn’t your usual TE, book him for a piece of touchdown pie this week.

Solid Picks (1-3)

Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)

Once again, Amari Cooper proved why he is often overlooked as one of the best WRs in the league. After making some spectacular plays in their huge win against the 49ers, he now faces a Colts team that is bleeding points to the WR position.

If you have followed this article, you know I have a weekly selection against this abysmal Colts secondary. Through six weeks they are allowing two touchdowns a game to the position and the second-most yards. Cooper is without question the leader of this receiving attack and is in line for his best game of the season this week. Whether P.J. Walker is under center or Deshaun Watson decides this team is worthy of him playing, Cooper is locked in for a tuddy this week.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

After a last-minute inactive on MNF in Week Four, Jones should be set to jet for Week Seven. It’s the perfect time for him to make his return as not only is this team floundering. Plus, they face a Broncos team that decided to play defense for the first time this season last week.

The Broncos are allowing the most touchdowns, yards, and yards per carry to the RB position this season. We just saw Isiah Pacheco tear them apart last Thursday, going for nearly 100 yards with six receptions on top of that. This team desperately needs some explosive playmakers, and Jones is just the guy for that. Lock the red zone aficionado for a score this week. 

Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)

Despite being the RB 15 on the season, Jacobs has the third most rushing attempts this season. It’s been a rude awakening for Jacob's fantasy managers, however, the volume alone is keeping him afloat. 

This week, the Raiders may be without Jimmy Garropolo, going against a Bears team that is allowing the fifth most rushing touchdowns to the position. I expect both teams in this matchup will want to keep the ball on the ground, increasing Jacobs’ chances of scoring his third touchdown on the season.

Taking Shots (1-3)

Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)

We are really reaching into the bag this week for our long shots. After hitting our first one last week, we are taking that false confidence and swinging for the fences in Week Seven. Darius Slayton is my first long-shot selection this week.

This Giants passing attack has been nonexistent all season. Regardless of who is under center, this team needs to improve their line and give their QBs time to pass. Slayton is entering this week second on the team in targets and coming off a game where he led the team in receiving yards. He’s been the leading WR target and faces a Commanders team that is coming off three straight weeks of getting torched by the WR position. One of these WRs will open the pie Shop this week, my bet is on Slayton.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)

Just when you thought we couldn’t get greasier, here I am selecting a TE that has eight receptions over four games this season. The Steelers’ offense is one of the last ones I want to bank on for the Pie Shop (then again, so are the Giants). However, this week he is facing a Rams team that has a hard time finding the TE position. Solely because of that, I think the Muth has a good shot of being one of the few Steelers TD scorers this week.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

Kittle is way too big a name to be a long shot. However, he is coming off of one catch for one yard in a game where both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel left. Additionally, he only has four receptions in his last two games (somehow managing three touchdowns over that span). I hope my other two long shots can give me the benefit of the doubt in selecting Kittle here.

In Week Seven we get to see this 49ers team on Monday Night Football, taking on the 2-4 Vikings. The Vikings have been steady against the position, however, are allowing the third most TDs per game to the position. In a game where Samuel and McCaffrey may be banged up, Kittle is in a prime spot to have one of his iconic monster performances. 

Thank you for reading my work. Check out Top-10 Biggest Surprises this season and my four favorite player prop selections each week!

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