The Fantasy Football Pie Shop, Week 4 (2023)

September 28, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts five players who will find the end zone in Week 4.

You win some, you lose some, and you can’t win them all. That’s the mentality I have heading into a redemption week for the Pie Shop. Last week, Dameon Pierce was our only correct selection. Ironically, he was probably the player I was least confident in. However, with Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison, and A.J. Brown all having goal-line opportunities, it was just one of those weeks.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week. 

Thankfully, we have another full week of football, with new matchups and a new Pie Shop. We have a lot of interesting matchups this week, book-ended by two NFC duels. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your RotoBaller Pie Shop for Week Four.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

Lions @ Packers, Thursday 5:15 pm PST

This team desperately needs its explosive playmakers back. Thankfully, Christian Watson and Jones should return in time for this divisional duel at Lambeau. In Jones’ one game this season, he put on a clinic with 127 total yards and two scores.

Since Week One, A.J. Dillon has plodded his way right into irrelevance for fantasy managers. It is clear that this team can use some electricity, and will rely on Jones to be that guy both on the ground and through the air.

Through three weeks, this Lions team is allowing the sixth most fantasy points and two touchdowns per game to the RB position. This is a matchup where Jones has feasted in the past, and I expect he’ll be feasting on Pies this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

Lions @ Packers, Thursday 5:15 pm PST

From one side of the ball to the other in this game, I’m doubling down on the running backs in this matchup. It helps that both of these teams are in the top ten in the league for fantasy points allowed to the position. 

After using a top-12 pick to select Gibbs in this year’s draft, his fantasy production has been relatively disappointing. However, the Lions have used Gibbs exactly how they said all offseason; Gibbs is the lightning to David Montgomery’s thunder and will be used creatively. The only part that justifies disappointment is that when Montgomery went down, Gibbs did not become that top-5 back many expected.

With Montgomery likely to miss this week as well, I expect he still won’t be the between the tackles grinder. I have a strong feeling that when Dan Campbell drafted him, he was visualizing going into Lambeau and showing off his new weapon. Now is his chance to open the Pie Shop for the first time in his career in primetime. 

Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)

Falcons @ Jaguars (London), Sunday 6:30 am PST

Sometimes you just have to trust the process and speak things into existence. Despite pretending that Pitts managers were ready to be hurt again, the pain is certainly taking its toll. 

This Falcons team currently has five players between 84 and 114 receiving yards on the season. When the leader is Mack Hollins, this is not the type of distribution fantasy players were hoping for.

Thankfully, Pitts is facing a Jaguars team that is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards and the eighth-most fantasy points to the TE position. Although this Falcons run game is one of the best in the league, there is a world where the Jaguars force Desmond Ridder to try and play like an NFL QB.

The last point, and my personal favorite, is that Kyle Pitts’ first career touchdown was against the Jets in London, England. That’s 33% of his total career touchdowns coming from across the pond. I think the Pitts Pie Shop will have a Steak and Ale Pie special this week.

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)

Bengals @ Titans, Sunday 10:00 am PST

I made the mistake last week of selecting a Bengal and relying on Joe Burrow playing on one leg. Although Ja’Marr Chase managed 12 receptions for 141 yards, I learned my lesson.

Just kidding, I’m prepared to be hurt again. Although Chase would be the easy choice, I think Higgins bounces back from a game full of bad drops. I think with each week that passes, we see a slightly improved Burrow. At least I hope so, because they'll need it in this matchup.

The Titans have had a mediocre season so far, however, their defense is very polarizing. While allowing less than 50 rushing yards per game to RBs, they are getting torched for over 300 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns through the air. 

The math is relatively simple here. I don’t believe the Titans have a corner that can defend either Chase or Higgins. They also don’t have a defender that can stop a 6’4” Higgins from an end zone jump ball. The unknown variable in this algebra equation is Burrow’s health. Thankfully, the only math I’ve been good at is Pi.

Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)

Broncos @ Bears, Sunday 10:00 am PST

In my opinion, the two worst teams in the league face off in this matchup. The only exciting part about this game is that these teams are finally facing an opponent of equal caliber.

After returning from a severe knee injury, Williams was expected to potentially miss the start of this season. Fortunately, he has been able to play in each game and has looked as good as you can in this offense. Although this team loves to use multiple running backs, Williams has been the clear leader with double-digit carries and three or more targets in each game. This week he faces a Bears' defense that is averaging one rushing TD per game and the seventh most fantasy points to the position.

The Broncos only have one rushing touchdown on the season, which was by Jaleel McLaughlin. I expect that to double this week when Williams finds one of the grossest Pie Shops to date. It might not be pretty, but with two defenses that are this bad, maybe there’ll be plenty of fantasy points to be had.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, LVR)

Raiders @ Chargers, Sunday 1:05 pm PST

It seems the fantasy community has forgotten about Meyers. After finding PPR success on an abysmal Patriots’ passing game, he has quietly had two solid games as a Raider. In his two games, he has 16 receptions for 166 yards and two touchdowns.

Although this team seems to be a mess behind Davante Adams, the passing attack is very concentrated. In the two games with both Adams and Meyers, no other player has had more than three receptions. In fact, no other receiver has had more than two receptions.

The Chargers are tied for the fourth most touchdowns to WRs this season and these Raiders-Chargers games always seem to be high-scoring. Although the easy calls are Adams and Keenan Allen, let’s think outside of the pie box and root for Meyers to find paydirt this week.

Darren Waller (TE, NYG)

Seahawks @ Giants, Monday 5:15 pm PST

I’m going back to the well with this one. In Week One I was hot and bothered by Waller’s preseason usage and called for the Pie Shop in what became a 40-0 demolition by the Cowboys. This time, I’m confident I’ll have better luck.

Seattle has not been the Seattle of old this season. The 2-1 Seahawks have been abysmal against opposing passing attacks, allowing three consecutive 320+ yard weeks to opposing QBs. And it’s not like they’ve played a gauntlet of top QBs either, it’s been Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton.

Daniel Jones has yet to find his passing groove this season, however, this is the perfect matchup to do so. One of these receivers will find the end zone this week, outside of Saquon Barkley (if he plays). As a result, instead of flipping a four-sided coin with the WRs, I’ll put my money (or pie) on Waller who leads this team in targets. However, if I were to flip that four-sided Giants coin, I’d be choosing Darius Slayton. 

Thanks again for reading the Pie Shop. I will be back next week with some more touchdown predictions and tasty treats!

(Record: 6-12)

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