The Cut List (Week 5) - Time to Let Go?

October 6, 2020

Adrian Solis's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 5 of the season.

We have reached the point in the season where you will inevitably encounter players once featured in the “hold” category, be demoted to the “drop” portion of the entry. As the sample size of games increases, it will be harder to recommend a hold on a “let’s see” approach.

There are naturally exceptions to this, though. Rookies, in particular, may be recommended as holds based on potential, roster shakeups, or changes in offensive schemes as the season progresses.

Keep in mind that recommendations are made relative to situations current to the time of each writing. To that end, here are this week’s players you can safely drop, and those that you may not necessarily be starting, but that are still worth holding onto (for the time being):

Droppable Players

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)

Kicking things off for this week’s column is Anthony Miller. As you may know, I initially suggested holding onto Miller, but that was an eternity ago – a week can feel like an eternity, right? At the time, Miller was still the number two to Allen Robinson, but based on snap count and coach Matt Nagy’s (justifiable) affinity to rookie Darnell Mooney, that just doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.

Miller is an underachieving player. It’s hard to base this argument off just last week’s game against the number one ranked defense, (Indianapolis Colts) but there’s a large enough sample size that shows he disappears too often for someone who has flashed NFL starting talent. Through four games, here are his stats: 19 targets, nine receptions, 133 yards and two touchdowns. While the touchdown to catch ratio is good, overall in terms of scoring, that is good for 159^th in the league. Miller had high expectations coming into this year. He was supposed to make the third-year leap, but now it looks like the Bears are turning to a rookie to help relieve some pressure off Allen Robinson.

Chris Herndon (TE, NYJ)

It’s hard to place blame on Chris Herndon when he plays for Adam Gase and the New York Jets, but this business is all about continuously analyzing whether someone deserves a spot in your fantasy roster. Long story short, Herndon does not. His fantasy production through four games: 4.70, 1.0, 3.6, 1.5. Oy Vey.

Add Chris Herndon into the same category as Anthony Miller of underachieving players. Also, file this one under ‘drop and don’t look back’ – if you need a reason/reminder, he plays for the Jets.

Preston Williams (WR, MIA)

Preston Williams is another player that was once featured in the more favorable portion of the segment, but now deservingly lands here. In last week’s game, a game where Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 45 times, Williams saw three targets come his direction. Need further proof as to why he 100% deserves to be here?

Here is a split between Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts, and William’s targets through four weeks: 30/7 (started promising), 47/5, 20/2, 45/3. Now, compare those targets to Isaiah Ford (someone way off the fantasy radar when the season began): 5, 9, 2, 10. There’s no need to look into DeVante Parker’s target share, as he is the clear-cut number one wideout for the Dolphins. In hindsight, it’s weird to even think how some questioned whether Williams was the best option out wide. Last year’s production sure looks like a fluke.

Golden Tate (WR, NYG)

Ignoring the drama involving Jalen Ramsey, Golden Tate has had a forgettable start to the 2020 season. To be fair, what New York Giants player hasn’t? The thing you like about Tate is that he is tough as nails, and usually is very dependable. The problem, again, is that he is a member of the New York Giants. Even with Sterling Shepard out, Tate is not someone you are going to star, even in the deepest of leagues. He is this week’s edition of “it just isn’t worth rostering any Giants player until dramatic changes happen on offense”.

Hold For Now

David Montgomery (RB, CHI)

Let’s start off with this: the only reason to hold onto David Montgomery is because of the volume he should continue to see for the foreseeable future. He is the starting running back for the Chicago Bears, Tarik Cohen is out for the season, and there isn’t quality depth behind him to legitimately challenge him for the top spot in the backfield. From a production standpoint, there is a lot to be desired, though. If things continue as is, don’t be surprised to see him earn the “droppable” tag, but I feel that given the circumstance, it’s too soon to pull the plug at the moment.

Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)

Based on where Michael Gallup was being drafted, his lack of production is uninspiring. Add to that how much Dak Prescott has thrown the ball to start off the season, and things turn to downright alarming. Perhaps we should have seen this coming. Not that Gallup isn’t talented (because he is), but the new toy for Prescott is rookie CeeDee Lamb. Up to this point, Lamb has seen more targets, and thus has produced more fantasy points. While that isn’t ideal for Gallup managers, things aren’t as bleak as they may seem.

Not including Week 4 snap count numbers (the data was not available at the time of this writing), Gallup has played 214 snaps to Lamb’s 176 – a healthy margin. Also, in all four games, Gallup has seen no less than five targets. And in case anyone forgot whether Gallup is talented, in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, Gallup put up this stat line: six receptions for 138 yards and one touchdown. One final nugget: The Cowboys are staring down a 1-3 record. For the Cowboys to make the playoffs, they will need to score a lot of points – the Dallas defense has played horrendously – which allows for the opportunity for Gallup to get things back on track.

J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)

There was a lot of hype entering the season for the standout rookie out of Ohio State, but he has yet to make any kind of noise early in his career. The problem? A three-man backfield that includes Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. No one in this stable is a slouch, so that complicates things. But what really complicates things is that this is a true RBBC. The only running back you can trust starting is Mark Ingram…but I don’t feel too confident saying that.

Should Ingram go down, you can expect to see an uptick in Dobbins’ usage, but then there will be Gus Edwards standing in the way. I included Dobbins under this section based purely on potential. If you have a deep bench and you need the roster spot for a waiver claim, I wouldn’t blame anyone for letting go of Dobbins. Just know that Dobbins can eventually emerge down the line as the lead back for Baltimore, but it wouldn’t surprise if that doesn’t happen until next season.

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