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Statcast hitter struggles and fantasy baseball fallers for Week 4 (2023). Brenton evaluates hitters whose fantasy value is on the decline based on advanced sabermetrics.
Welcome to the second edition of MLB hitter studs and duds for the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Be sure to also check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball, including the weekly series by Connelly Doan about Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds.
We're still early enough into the 2023 MLB regular season that there is an eternity for players to get things turned around. Positive and negative regression is a fun discussion to center on early in the season as we don't want to get carried away with early-season results. However, it's not the surface results we're looking at in these weekly Statcast-driven pieces.
Rather, it's the underlying data we're dialing in on. Speaking specifically to this week, let's take a look at some players who are off to concerning starts from a Statcast perspective. Usually, weak Statcast data reflects on surface results but the point is to zero in on some players off to tough starts with a minimal chance at a big bounce-back given the prevailing metrics.
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Statcast Hitter Studs & Duds - Notable Concerning Starts (Week 4)
Christian Walker: 1B, Diamondbacks
You absolutely love to see a late-bloomer story as Christian Walker enjoyed a career year in his age-31 season in 2022.
Walker launched a career-high 36 home runs a season ago, which led to a career-best 94 RBIs. He delivered fantastic value at the first base position and rewarded fantasy baseball managers who bought low either on draft day or the early-season waiver wire. The opposite is true this season.
Walker has two homers in 14 games, but he's also hitting just .173 with a .259 xwOBA. Clearly, he's not hitting the ball hard at all.
Yikes. Walker's hard-hit rate of 26.7% for this season is miles below his 44% mark from last season. His 4.4% barrel rate has plummeted from a strong 11.5% mark from last season. His average exit velocity has gone from 90% last season to just an 84.4% mark this season.
As noted, there is time to get things turned around but by no means can Walker's slow start be attributed to poor luck.
Andres Gimenez: 2B, Guardians
Andres Gimenez was a breakout stud at the second base position in 2022. He was also an interesting topic of discussion in the offseason as luck played a significant role in the breakout.
Jimenez clubbed a career-high 17 home runs but ranked in the 33rd percentile in barrel rate and 36th in hard-hit rate last season. He put up a strong .364 wOBA but his .326 xwOBA suggested regression. Finally, his .353 BABIP was largely unsustainable given the lack of consistent hard contact but he still managed to hit .297.
His underlying data was weak last season and has been even worse this young season.
Through all of this, Gimenez is hitting .305. His strong contact skills allow him to put the ball into play and his average will still be steady. Nonetheless, he also owns a massive .386 BABIP and an expected batting average of .272, more than 30 points below his prevailing mark.
Additionally, the power is just not there. Gimenez has just one homer in 15 games along with a weak .136 isolated power. His speed keeps him fantasy-relevant as he has five stolen bases and a 94th percentile ranking in sprint speed. His stolen-base upside remains fantastic.
However, don't expect much extra-base power for the 24-year-old as he stands to deliver minimal value in points leagues this season.
Triston Casas: 1B, Red Sox
Triston Casas was a popular dynasty league target this draft season as he was slated for everyday duties at first base with an impressive track record of power in the minor leagues. So far, he hasn't been as advertised.
This isn't the first big-league look for Casas as he got into 27 games with the Red Sox last season. While he hit just .197 across 95 trips to the plate, he also slugged five homers while adding a double to his ledger in that time. The resulting .211 ISO was encouraging.
To a degree, it's been a similar story this season. Casas is hitting a putrid .133 but has two homers, two doubles, and a solid .178 ISO to his name. However, he's also struck out in 32% of his plate appearances while having his walk rate plummet from an eye-popping 20% in his debut last season to 8% this time around. He at least produced a solid .325 xwOBA last season but that mark stands at an ugly .241 mark this season. The remainder of the metrics is not pretty.
His average exit velocity and barrel rate are palatable but everything else stinks. You could look at his tiny .143 BABIP and assume poor luck. But the data tells us he's still bound for a wildly weak batting average while his xwOBA doesn't stand to improve a whole lot.
It will be difficult for Casas to avoid a minor league demotion at this rate. After all, the Red Sox have veteran Justin Turner available to play first base while Bobby Dalbec is an option there as well. At 23, the club would be wise to take some pressure off of Casas if his big-league struggles continue.
Manny Machado: 3B, Padres
Of course, Manny Machado's resume is Hall-of-Fame worthy and he's coming off an MVP-caliber 2022 season. He's among the game's elite and there's no questioning that. However, I'm not sure we should be regarding him as an elite talent this season.
Simply put, his batted-ball profile is wildly poor and the surface results reflect that. Machado is hitting just .254 with one homer and a .095 ISO in 16 games. His .285 wOBA is off-key and his .258 expected mark is even worse. To this point, his bat has been 24% below the league average after finishing 52% above it last season, as per wRC+.
What's interesting is he's hitting .254 despite a .319 BABIP that's actually above his .301 career mark. He's managed such a strong BABIP despite a plethora of weak contact.
We've included some additional percentile rankings such as whiff rate, chase rate, and sprint speed for a reason. Machado is striking out more, walking less, and his sprint speed remains well below the league average. He stole a decent nine bases last season and 21 over the last two seasons despite weak sprint rankings but count me as bearish in the stolen-base department.
Look, Machado should be able to bounce back. Judging by his track record, it's a given.
Clearly, the smart money is on the bounce back. However, Machado hit .256 with a bat that was only 9% superior to the league average in 2019, his first season in San Diego. He hit .259 with a bat only 2% better than the league average in 2017, his final full season with the Orioles. A down season is not unprecedented for Machado.
In short, it's going to take a major turn of events for Machado to even approach his work at the plate last season as he could be headed for another off-year in 2023.
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