RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 14 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
Oh, boy! This is it. The final week of the fantasy football regular season. All the months of prep all summer long, setting lineups and waivers, researching, watching the games, and talking trash have all led to this! Whether or not your season continues, and you make it to the dance comes down to Week 14.
To make things even tougher - it is Byemaggedon Part 2: Revenge of the Byes! Another week with six teams on bye. The Ravens, Commanders, Texans, Colts, Patriots, and Broncos are all on bye this week. Yeah, a bunch of stud offensive players that you will not be able to use in the biggest week of the season.
That makes finding replacement options that much more vital this week. Luckily for many of you, it is a good streaming week! Let's get those lineups ready and get you into the fantasy playoffs!
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Aidan O’Connell played well last week throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns. To put that into perspective, Gardner Minshew has one game where he came within 60 yards of that and just two games with multiple passing TDs. He gets the Bucs now who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to QBs. They’ve allowed a top eight fantasy QB in five of their last six. AOC is a top replacement option for those in need.
Five of Aidan O'Connell's 6 longest career completions by air distance came last Friday.
His 58-yard TD pass to Tre Tucker traveled 50.4 yards in the air, O'Connell's longest completion of his career (and the longest completion by air yards of any QB in Week 13).— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) December 3, 2024
Jameis Winston was the fantasy QB1 last week throwing for 497 yards, four touchdowns, and scoring 33 fantasy points. Don’t stress interceptions when Winston is heaving the ball like he is. He brings such a high ceiling regardless of matchup due to that.
I mean, he did what he did last week against one of the best secondaries in the NFL was nothing short of impressive. He was held in check a couple of weeks ago against the Steelers, but with six teams on bye, he is a high-upside replacement option.
Will Levis has averaged 16.8 fantasy PPG in his last four games. He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in three of four games. He faces the Jaguars who have allowed the most fantasy PPG to QBs this season and the second-most passing touchdowns. In a week like this, you are looking for a good matchup to feast on and Levis has one.
Cooper Rush faces the Bengals who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season and the most in the last month. The Bengals are sure to score plenty of points, which should force Rush and the Cowboys to have to throw more. Volume and a good matchup are about as good of a situation you can ask for if diving this deep.
If you need an RB…
Isaac Guerendo is low-hanging fruit, but he is a must-start this week. As we saw with Jordan Mason and countless backs in the past, you can trust the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan run system. Guerendo has shined in spot duty already this year, brings breakaway speed, and should see a ton of volume.
The Bears have allowed the third-most rushing yards and allow breakaway runs at an above-average rate. Start Guerendo.
Jaylen Warren has seen four targets in three straight games. He has seen nine or more carries in five of his last six games. Plus, he has some breakaway capabilities so that sort of volume gives him standalone value. Especially in a week like this one. He faces the Browns who he got for 64 yards, a touchdown, and 15.4 fantasy points on his way to an RB1 finish just two weeks ago.
Sincere McCormick turned 12 carries into 64 yards last week. His 5.3 yards per carry was the most any running back with at least five carries has put up against the Chiefs, who happen to be the best run defense in the league.
Antonio Pierce said he earned more reps after that game, and he faces the Bucs who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy PPG to RBs. Plus, he has a fantastic schedule afterward so get him on your rosters in case he hits.
#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce thinks the team may have found something in RB Sincere McCormick, who has led the team in rushing for two weeks since being elevated from the practice squad.
"What you're seeing on game days is what we saw every day from practice. A guy that ran hard,… pic.twitter.com/RxKIAS3YHU
— Nick Walters (@nickwalt) December 4, 2024
Jonathon Brooks saw his work ramp up a bit last week. It is not high enough yet to say he has standalone value, but in a week like this, you can make the case. He looked the part though. You can see why I and so many analysts are excited about his future in this league. The floor is low, but if you have to dive deeper this week, he brings big play upside.
If you need a WR…
Jerry Jeudy has earned must-start status. Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore though are still in play this week as Jameis Winston has shown to elevate all the pass catchers around him for fantasy. Moore had 14 targets last week and has eight or more in four of his last five games. He scored 16 or more PPR points in three of those.
Tillman has been a bit up and down, but we have seen him put up some big numbers with Winston. Moore brings a safer floor, but Tillman possesses more upside.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is one of my favorite streamers this week. He has averaged 18 fantasy PPG in his last three games as the new Rashid Shaheed in this Saints offense. He faces the Giants who have allowed 68 percent of deep passes to be completed against them. For context, one other team is above 46 percent. He has the type of upside to flip your week if he hits.
I'm sorry to share this news with you, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 2.84 YPRR against single-high looks ranks top-12.
The Giants deploy single-high looks at the league’s 4th-highest rate (62.4%).
He just keeps getting away with it. pic.twitter.com/nbTVuvz0uB
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 5, 2024
Christian Watson is in play with Romeo Doubs out this week. He may be a bit boom-or-bust but a high ceiling is enough to have him in play this week with so many talented receivers sidelined. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG and second-most yards to receivers. Due to the matchup, Dontayvion Wicks is a high upside streaming option as well.
Joshua Palmer could see a big boost in volume if Ladd McConkey is out. I believe he would be elevated to the top target, leaving Quentin Johnston in his usual role. The Chiefs excel at stopping the run and are capable of scoring a lot of points so this could be a game where the Chargers have to throw a bunch. The Chiefs have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to receivers. He is in play as a streaming option.
Adam Thielen has a tough matchup this week, but he should provide volume. Last week he looked like vintage Adam Thielen catching eight of 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown. He very likely should have had two touchdowns. It is very likely the Panthers are chasing points and if so, they will likely throw his way a good amount.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is boom-or-bust. He has just 20 catches this season and eight have gone for touchdowns. The chance for him to go boom is certainly there this week as he faces the Jaguars who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to receivers this season. High upside options are the theme of the week!
If you need a TE…
Pat Freiermuth had his best game with Russell Wilson last week. He caught six of seven targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. It was his second straight game topping 50 yards. The floor has shown to be low, but the arrow is pointing up. The Browns have also allowed the most fantasy PPG to tight ends in the last month. He is the top streaming option this week.
Will Dissly is another great streaming option. Dissly faces the Chiefs who allowed by far the most yards to tight ends - over 100 more than any other team. They have also allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to the position. Plus, the Chargers could have to throw more than usual and if Ladd McConkey is out, that means more volume.
Juwan Johnson has a tough matchup. He could potentially see more volume with Taysom Hill sidelined. Last week he saw a season-high seven targets. Volume wins the day when diving deeper at the tight end.
Theo Johnson is a deeper streaming option this week against the Saints. He has seen at least five targets in four straight games. He has double-digits in two of his last four games and has a floor around six fantasy points. You can do worse if diving this deep.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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