Shortstop: Overvalued/Undervalued for Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues

The shortstop position has some elite fantasy options going early in drafts this year. Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. leads the position after a spectacular 30-home run, 96-RBI, 49-stolen bases season. Witt is currently going in the first round.

Shortstops like Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor all come off the board next between the second and third rounds. Turner has an early-second round ADP while Seager goes later in the second round, and Lindor has an ADP of 28.8. Those top four shortstops are valued appropriately in fantasy drafts this season.

However, several other players at the position are going too high or too low in fantasy in 2024. So, here are five shortstops that are overvalued or undervalued in drafts this season.

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CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

In his first full season with the Washington Nationals, shortstop CJ Abrams surely showed his bright future across 151 games. He hit .245 with 18 home runs, 64 RBI, 28 doubles, and 47 stolen bases. The 23-year-old also hit 11 of his 18 HRs in the final 70 games of the season. That has the shortstop trending up heading into the 2024 season.

Nevertheless, he's a player going too high in fantasy drafts this year. Abrams is currently going in the seventh or eighth round in CBS leagues and going slightly earlier in Yahoo formats. ESPN has his ADP outside the top 100, which seems closer to his value this year.

There's no doubt Abrams had a nice 2023 season, but it might be hard for the shortstop to maintain those numbers. His average exit velocity (87.4 mph), barrel rate (6.9%), and hard-hit rate (35.9%) all ranked in the bottom half of the league. The former sixth overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft also had just a 5.2% walk rate.

The steals boost Abrams' fantasy value. However, he's just too much of a risk at his current ADP. Outside of the stolen base numbers, he doesn't provide many points in HRs, RBI, or walks. Players like Justin Steele, J.T. Realmuto, and Dylan Cease -- all of whom are going around the Nationals shortstop -- are better value picks in the seventh to eighth round.

Verdict: Overvalued

Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres

In his first year with the San Diego Padres, there's no doubt Xander Bogaerts struggled at times at the plate. However, his overall hitting numbers weren't that poor in 2023. Bogaerts finished with a .285 batting average with 19 HRs, 58 RBI, 31 doubles, and 19 stolen bases.

His 58 RBI was below his career average, but his HRs, doubles, and batting average were right around his career mark. If he can drive in 70-75 runs in 2024 -- like he did with the Boston Red Sox in his final two years there -- he will provide more fantasy points this upcoming season. Bogaerts will also move over to second base this year, so he should gain both second base and shortstop eligibility.

Xander Bogaerts on his feelings about moving to second base: pic.twitter.com/1SWcGviK6k

— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) February 16, 2024

It remains to be seen where Bogaerts will hit in San Diego's order this year with the departure of Juan Soto. Chances are, though, he will hit right behind Fernando Tatis Jr. That should at least help him get more RBI chances in 2024. The middle infielder is a safe option in fantasy drafts this year at his current 97.4 ADP because of his potential to hit over 20 HRs, steal over 15 bases, and hit over 30 doubles.

Verdict: Undervalued

Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is as consistent as it gets on the baseball field. He has played over 145 games in three straight seasons, including 160 in two of the past three years. Swanson has also hit at least 22 HRs, 80 RBI, 25 doubles, and stolen at least nine bases from 2021-2023.

It was a slightly down year for the shortstop at the plate, who saw his numbers decline from the 2022 season. However, he still had a .244 average with 22 HRs, 80 RBI, and 25 doubles last year. The Cubs' infielder did draw a career-high 66 walks, which helped him finish the year with a 10.3% walk rate. Overall, the average was a bit disappointing, but that could even out for Swanson in 2024.

Dansby Swanson followed a ~35% whiff rate in August with an improved 20% in September, likely with intent to adjust to something.

He's been focusing on weight distribution changes to front side... to help with outside pitches. It'll be fun to follow that this spring. pic.twitter.com/iHqIir9s1m

— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) February 22, 2024

Even if it doesn't, Swanson's ADP of 125.2 seems too low. He's been a reliable fantasy option for the past couple of years and will give managers plenty of fantasy points. His 2023 season seems like a nice floor for 2024 -- with the potential to hit more HRs and drive in more runs.

Verdict: Undervalued

Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim had a very nice 2023 season. He won his first Gold Glove and finished 14th in the National League MVP voting. However, there's no reason he should be going one to two rounds earlier than Swanson.

Kim did a little bit of everything at the plate last year, totaling 17 HRs, 60 RBI, 23 doubles, and 38 stolen bases. He also finished the year with a .260 batting average and a 12% walk rate. However, the Padres' shortstop just doesn't provide enough in the big categories (HRs, RBI, and doubles) for me to like him at his 112 ADP.

Like Abrams, Kim's stolen base numbers are big for his fantasy value, but he doesn't post elite numbers anywhere else. His hard-hit rate (26.7%), barrel rate (4.2%), average exit velocity (86.2 mph), and expected slugging (.359) also all ranked in the bottom 15% of the entire league. So, we could see his home run numbers take a slight hit during the 2024 season.

Verdict: Overvalued

Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles

While we don't know if Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday will make the Opening Day roster, there's a strong chance he will be in the Majors at some point in 2024. If fantasy managers knew that Holliday would start the season with the Orioles, his ADP would skyrocket into the top 90 -- if not higher. However, since no one knows, his average ADP sits at 184.

Holliday is a talented infielder, who has quickly risen through the Orioles' Minor League system. After being drafted with the first overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, he played at all four Minor League levels in 2023. He started at Single-A and ended the season at Triple-A Norfolk. Over 125 combined games across those four levels last year, he hit .323 with 12 HRs, 75 RBI, 30 doubles, and 24 stolen bases.

All eyes on @MLBPipeline's No. 1 overall prospect, Jackson Holliday. pic.twitter.com/0VJmuHGqU1

— MLB (@MLB) February 21, 2024

If Holliday does make his Major League debut in 2024, he's going to be a key part of Baltimore's lineup. You might need to stash him for a part of the season, but it will be worth it when he helps you down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs.

Verdict: Undervalued

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