Shortstop Dynasty and Prospect Rankings, Buys and Sells for Fantasy Baseball

July 12, 2024

Eric Cross provides his prospect and dynasty fantasy baseball rankings for the shortstop position and discusses players to buy or sell at the position entering the second half of 2024.

Welcome back to the 5th installment of my mid-season positional breakdown, where I provide my dynasty and prospect rankings for each position, along with some players to buy or sell. We'll be rounding out the infield today with the always intriguing shortstop position.

The shortstop position is always loaded, but the depth is being tested this season. After you get past the Top 12 or so, you'll find more questions than answers, and even some names in the first few tiers have been frustrating for fantasy managers this season for one reason or another.

Below, you'll find my top-25 dynasty shortstop rankings, top-20 shortstop prospect rankings, and tiers for each of those rankings, along with four shortstops to either buy or sell in dynasty leagues right now. All other positions can be found here.

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Shortstop Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Tier 1: Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz
Tier 2: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, CJ Abrams
Tier 3: Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor
Tier 4: Oneil Cruz, Matt McLain
Tier 5: Anthony Volpe, Bo Bichette, Jordan Lawlar, Ezequiel Tovar, Carson Williams, Colt Emerson
Tier 6: Ha-Seong Kim, Willy Adames, Ceddanne Rafaela, Zach Neto, Masyn Winn
Tier 7: Jeremy Pena, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Marcelo Mayer, and others

Shortstop Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

Tier 1: Jordan Lawlar, Carson Williams, Colt Emerson
Tier 2: Felnin Celesten, Brooks Lee, Aidan Miller, Marcelo Mayer
Tier 3: Joendry Vargas, Sebastian Walcott, Jacob Wilson, Cole Young
Tier 4: Yoeilin Cespedes, Leo De Vries, Brayden Taylor, Jett Williams, Colson Montgomery
Tier 5: Ronny Mauricio, Kevin McGonigle, Shay Whitcomb, Emil Morales, and others.

Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys/Sells

MLB Buy: Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds

For the second position in a row, we're going with a Cincinnati infielder as my MLB buy. While it's for a different reason, McLain missing the entire season so far has kept his dynasty value in check, even after his phenomenal rookie season in 2023. In 403 plate appearances, McLain slashed .290/.357/.507 with 65 runs, 16 home runs, 50 RBI, and 14 steals before his season ended on August 27th due to an oblique strain. That's a full-season pace of 118 runs, 29 home runs, 91 RBI, and 25 steals. McLain was being drafted well inside the Top 100 on average early in draft season and would've been Top-40 or so if he had another month or two with Cincinnati last season.

Only nine other players had at least 14 home runs and 14 steals from McLain's debut (May 15) until his final game of the season (August 27). The list shrinks to just McLain, Kyle Tucker, Ronald Acuña Jr, and Corbin Carroll if you add in additional thresholds of 60 runs scored and 50 RBI. I'm not comparing him to those three or saying he'll be a first-round talent, but that just shows how impactful McLain was for fantasy last season as a rookie and what he's capable of doing moving forward.

FIRST CAREER SLAMMY FOR MATT MCLAIN! pic.twitter.com/Wgz13uzAG7

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) July 22, 2023

In general, McLain's contact skills are around average, with an 80% zone and 72% overall contact rate, but he posted an above-average 10.8% barrel rate, 89.3 mph AVG EV, and 42.4% hard-hit rate. While he might not be an annual threat to flirt with a .300 AVG, McLain should be able to maintain an average at last above .260, given his blend of contact, quality of contact, and the BABIP boost he gets from Cincinnati. McLain is also a 90th percentile runner which rounds out this profile nicely.

MLB Sell: Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

Let me start by saying that right now isn't the best time to sell Anthony Volpe, but in the long term, he's more of a sell than a buy for me. And that's not me saying that I don't think he can be a solid shortstop for fantasy purposes, but the perceived value on him soared way too high on him earlier in the season, to the point where I saw him being mentioned in the same breath as Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. Let's all take a step back for a second.

The positives in Volpe's profile are that he makes solid contact (82.4% zone, 77.2% overall), has an 86th percentile sprint speed, and the fact that he has trimmed his strikeout rate from 27.8% to 21.5% this season. And hey, at least he's not hitting .209 this season, right? Well, overall, he's not, but Volpe is slashing just .175/.204/.234 over his last 31 games and has gone 49 games since his last home run. The lower .265 OBP over these 49 games has kept the stolen base total in check as well, with only a half dozen.

Basically, this all boils down to the fact that Volpe isn't hitting the ball as hard this season, and he's not hitting the ball at ideal angles. His barrel rate has dropped from 9% to 4.3%, his AVG EV from 88.7 mph to 87.4 mph, and his hard-hit rate from 43% to 36.5%. On top of that, Volpe's groundball rate has risen from 41.1% to 51.8%, and his pull rate has dropped dramatically from 46.7% to 26.6%. Long-term, Volpe is more of a back-end Top 100 asset in my eyes, and not one with Top-25 upside. The profile just doesn't support him being an early-round talent.

Prospect Buy: Jacob Wilson, Oakland Athletics

I'll fully admit that I wasn't high enough on Jacob Wilson in my 2023 FYPD rankings and in my overall prospect rankings up until recently. Why? Well, usually, I don't rank the prospects without much power or speed overly highly, as their potential impact for fantasy is limited. That remains to be the case with Wilson, but I think he'll provide enough power in addition to his elite hit tool to be a solid fantasy middle infielder.

Jacob Wilson stays hot 🔥

He gets his 3rd hit of the night and picks up his 10th RBI of the year as an Aviator!#AviatorsLV pic.twitter.com/L6Qzh3cyqb

— Las Vegas Aviators (@AviatorsLV) July 7, 2024

In 42 games this season, Wilson is slashing a ridiculous .461/.494/.731 with 24 doubles, seven home runs, a pair of steals, and only 13 strikeouts. His 24 doubles are tied for 4th in the minors despite him playing only 42 games, and Wilson's .461 AVG is a whopping 84 points higher than any other minor leaguers with at least 180 plate appearances.

Given Wilson's blend of elite contact and enough power to get into the 15-20 homer range, I've bumped him way up my rankings this month, and he could see Oakland sooner rather than later. It's not a sexy profile, but remember, sexy doesn't always win fantasy championships. Fantasy managers also succeed by having players like Wilson on their team.

Prospect Beware: Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks

We're barely past the halfway point of the 2024 season and Jordan Lawlar is now on the Injured List for the third time after reaggravating his hamstring injury which was the cause of his second IL stint that he just game back from. Lawlar also missed a major chunk of time to begin the 2024 season after tearing a ligament in his thumb which required surgery.

If you've followed my work, you should know by now that I'm a big Lawlar guy. I've ranked him highly ever since my first set of FYPD rankings for his 2021 draft class and had him inside my Top-10 overall for a while now. If we're just looking at his skills, Lawlar has the upside to be an early-round fantasy talent with the potential to rack up more than 20 home runs and 25 steals annually. However, as I've mentioned several times in various places, durability is the 6th tool for baseball players, and Lawlar isn't fairing too well in that department lately.

Long-term, I'm still very high on the talent, but there's plenty of risk in rostering or targeting Lawlar in dynasty leagues right now.

Additional Prospect Buys

I've been trying to keep these articles uniform with one prospect buy per position, but there are too many exciting young shortstop prospects with immense offensive potential right now. Here are my top seven shortstop prospects in the lower levels of the minors to target right now before their price tags continue to rise and reach elite levels. I'll be expanding on these names in future articles both here and on my Patreon.

1. Joendry Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Sebastian Walcott, Texas Rangers
3. Aidan Miller, Philadelphia Phillies
4. Felnin Celesten, Seattle Mariners
5. Leodalis De Vries, San Diego Padres
6. Yoeilin Cespedes, Boston Red Sox
7. Emil Morales, Los Angeles Dodgers

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