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Season-long player props have slowly become my favorite market for betting. It’s the perfect mix of fantasy analysis and year-long investment. Whether you are looking to double-down on “your guys”, or fade the players you're skeptical about, both are equally fun. Additionally, I find over an entire season, it is easier to predict as the law of averages is in play.
After meticulously tracking my season-long bets over the last two years I have selected at a 46% hit rate and profited both seasons. As a result, I am going to give myself a makeshift $100 dollar budget to show my confidence in each prop outlined in this article.
This year I am releasing my 10 favorite prop bets. If you’ve read my rankings articles, you will see that a lot of these players correspond to their positive or negative rankings. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is my 2023 Ellis' Essential Bets.
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Ellis’ Essentials: Season-Long Props
Rachaad White Under 4.5 rushing touchdowns ($2)
It’s not often you have a clear lead NFL back and can predict fewer than 4.5 rushing touchdowns. Well, when the Bucs line is as bad as it currently is and the offense has to deal with the departure of the GOAT, it’s not a bad bet.
Last year, Leonard Fournette and White combined for 318 rushing attempts. Of those attempts, Fournette (8) and White (3) combined for 11 attempts inside the five. Shockingly, none of those attempts resulted in a score.
The team will likely struggle to reach the red zone as often, making their goal-line inefficiency terrifying. These two backs combined for four rushing touchdowns, and now that White is the main guy, I struggle to see him reaching five rushing scores.
Miles Sanders Over 0.5 receiving touchdowns ($4)
I love this prop. Not only is it easy to cheer for, but it also will be really disappointing if it doesn’t hit. What makes it interesting is that Sanders has not scored a receiving TD since 2019.
All off-season we have heard about Sanders being used frequently in the passing game. Plus, Bryce Young often checked it down to his RBs in college. Unless this offensive line finds its groove, through two preseason games, Young might be forced to dump it off a lot. This is a low bar that could easily be hit in the first week against a Falcons’ run defense that historically bleeds RB fantasy points.
Kenny Pickett Under 19.5 passing touchdowns ($5)
One of the hottest discussions this offseason has been the positive regression that has to come for the Steelers. More specifically, Pickett’s astounding 1.8% touchdown rate is the lowest in years making it almost inevitable that it will increase.
The question is now, by how much? Passing for seven touchdowns in 13 games does not inspire confidence, even for a rookie. Last season on 21 attempts inside the 10-yard line, Pickett had only three scores and an abysmal 38% completion percentage.
I’m in the camp that doesn’t think Pickett is a prolific touchdown scorer, regardless of regression. Additionally, this Steelers team likes to lean on its run game and defense. Pair this with the statistics above, and I have no issue fading the sophomore QB.
Elijah Mitchell Under 575.5 rushing yards ($7)
One of the most common phrases in fantasy football is “You can’t predict injuries”. Although I agree with this, I hate to say there are some players that seem to miss more time than others. Unfortunately, Mitchell is one of them.
Over his first two seasons, Mitchell has only played in 16 games. Although he has shown a lot of talent in his limited attempts, he is behind one of the best backs in the league. Additionally, Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price have both had productive training camps, strengthening the narrative that the 49ers always have multiple backs that can produce. Limited opportunity, paired with the injury history, makes this a smart bet.
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Mark Andrews Over 800.5 receiving yards ($8)
This is one of those lines that has me thinking Vegas knows something we don’t. That’s because Andrews should be a lock for 800 yards. Not only has he hit that mark in each of the last two seasons with Lamar Jackson missing games, but in one of those seasons he put up over 1300 yards.
This team also has new offensive coordinator Todd Monken coming in, who is known for a fast-paced, pass-first offense. Lamar is a better passer than people like to give him credit for, and Andrews is his top target.
My only concern is that we don’t know how much the ball will be spread around in this offense between Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., and sophomore tight end Isaiah Likely. However, you would think one of these players will hit the 800-yard mark, and Andrews is by far the most likely to do so (no pun intended).
Darren Waller Over 60.5 receptions ($10)
This is one of those props that just makes sense. All offseason we have heard a steady beat for Waller becoming the team’s top target. From reporters stating that he has to be removed from the field so Daniel Jones targets a different player, to Waller having four targets on Jones’ nine preseason Week Two attempts, this beat just keeps growing.
Although offseason reports can be misleading, I believe that the ones that remain consistently positive for months are the strongest. In my opinion, the biggest risk here is injury, as Waller has only played 20 games over the last two seasons. However, I’m high enough on him this season that I think 60.5 receptions is a mark he can hit in 10 games.
Lamar Jackson Over 3499.5 passing yards ($10)
This pairs with my Mark Andrews bet. However, I like this one more because I have more faith in this passing offense as a whole rather than one player. As I’ve mentioned, Todd Monken is a game-changer for this team. His hiring and the off-season additions of first-round pick Zay Flowers and free agent Odell Beckham Jr. set the foundation for a big passing season for Jackson.
Everything that has come out from beat reporters, as well as the team's money and offseason investments, indicates that this team will pass more than ever before. Considering Jackson passed for 3127 yards in 2019 in 15 games, throwing to Seth Roberts and Willie Snead alongside Andrews and Marquise Brown, asking for 3500 yards should be a smash.
My only concern is that Jackson is known to miss time, however, if you want to bet on this passing game and not Jackson I have a bonus pick. I think the J.K. Dobbins under rushing yards is just as good of a value. Not only is this offense looking to pass more and Dobbins is often injured, but he has distanced himself from the team all offseason with his contract disputes. I struggle to see Dobbins getting enough work alongside Jackson, Gus Edwards, and even Justice Hill to sniff the near 900-yard mark.
(Bonus: Dobbins Under 875.5 rushing yards)
Brandon Aiyuk Over 775.5 yards ($12)
This line surprised me. That’s partly because it’s the exact same line I highlighted a year ago, before Aiyuk’s 1000-yard season. Yes, you read that right. After Aiyuk passed 1000 yards, the line literally did not move.
Not only has his situation seemingly improved, with Brock Purdy starting from Week One, but the news out of camp has been glowing for Aiyuk. Reporters, coaches, and teammates have all praised Aiyuk, saying he is primed for a massive season. Plus, for the six games with Purdy under center, Aiyuk was on pace for 1029 receiving yards.
My only concern is that this offense has too many mouths to feed. Between Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, it may be tough for him to reach the 1000-yard threshold. Thankfully, the line is set well below that, making it my third favorite prop pick.
Daniel Jones Over 17.5 passing touchdowns ($15)
Daniel Jones’ passing touchdown line is lower than Kenny Pickett’s. That just sounds absurd to me. Last year’s Coach of the Year has adapted this offense to fit Jones’ strengths perfectly. Jones thrives at short-intermediate middle-of-the-field throws and has found success throwing a timely deep shot.
This team brought in a plethora of talented WRs who thrive in short-yardage slot usage. This includes the headliner Darren Waller, as well as Parris Campbell and Cole Beasley, to add to Sterling Shepherd and Wandale Robinson. Additionally, Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hidgins have produced as the X receiver AND the team spent an early third-round selection on elite speedster Jalin Hyatt.
17.5 touchdowns is tied for the second-lowest line with C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields and is only behind Desmond Ridder (14.5). I think Jones carries a lot of negativity in the football community which influences this line. Thankfully, you don’t have to think he is good to realize that this line is an absolute steal.
Justin Herbert Over 29.5 passing touchdowns ($25)
Lock it up and throw away the key. My absolute may favorite player prop is betting on Justin Herbert this off-season. I know, it’s not the most unique take, but that’s not a bad thing when I’m stamping my name on it.
In Herbert’s three seasons, he has 31, 38, and 25 touchdowns. Over those seasons, he’s averaged 7.3, 7.5, and 6.8 yards per attempt. That last one specifically, is a glimpse of the many things that went wrong for this team last season. This team was loaded with injuries with star lineman Rashawn Slater missing almost the entire season and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing a combined 10 games. Just off of that, you would think positive regression would work in Herbert’s favor.
Still, we have yet to reach my favorite point in support of this prop. Kellen Moore is now the Chargers’ offensive coordinator. Arguably the most impressive coordinator over the last two seasons, Moore led the Cowboys to become the highest-scoring and fourth-highest-scoring offense respectively. Two years ago, Dak Prescott passed for 37 touchdowns, and last year he passed for 23 in 12 games (on pace for 32.6). With no disrespect to Prescott, Herbert is an exceptional talent and is surrounded by even better weapons. If Herbert plays a full season, everything is aligned for a massive season.
If you don’t like betting on touchdowns, Bet365 has boosted the odds for Herbert to throw for 5000 yards at +300. At those odds, I have no issue pivoting to that.
Thanks for reading my work. Make sure you check out my player positional ranks for redraft leagues!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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