Running Back Best Ball Rankings and Analysis (Tier 1-3)

June 3, 2021

Running back rankings analysis for 2021 best ball drafts for RBs in the top tiers. Phil Clark breaks down the best values relative to ADP for best ball leagues.

We have already persevered through the most uneventful weeks of the offseason, and have embraced the accelerated news cycle that was fueled by free agency and the NFL Draft. Each transformation of the fantasy landscape has compelled managers to expand their involvement in best ball drafts, and this process has accelerated as we progress through the offseason.

The unwavering popularity of this format remains intact for multiple reasons. That includes the opportunity to complete all forms of roster management at the conclusion of each draft. However, that also makes it critical for you to assemble a team that can withstand the various challenges that emerge during the season - since the best ball format does not present the option of using a waiver wire.

That is why the team at RotoBaller continues to supply a non-stop arsenal of news, analysis, and tiered rankings to help you capture your best ball leagues. We also provide breakdowns of our rankings after each update, including our two-part series that will examine the critical running back position. This article will focus on Tiers 1-3, and you can find all of the latest rankings here.

RB Best Ball Rankings

Tier 1

Christian McCaffrey,  Dalvin Cook,  Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley

McCaffrey’s protracted health issues sidelined him during 13 matchups in 2020, which prevented him from finishing among the top two in scoring for a third consecutive season. However, he remained proficient whenever he did perform. McCaffrey led all backs in point-per-game scoring and finished at RB54 despite playing in just three games. He averaged 19.7 carries, 6.3 targets, 75 rushing yards, 125 total yards, and 49.7 receiving yards per game when he was available, while also generating six touchdowns.

McCaffrey remains the first overall selection in most drafts which underscores the sizable confidence that exists surrounding his ability to approach his production from 2018-2019. He became the first back to achieve two 100-catch seasons during that sequence, and just the third runner to accumulate 1,000 yards in both rushing and receiving during the same year.

Christian McCaffrey is just the third player to reach 1,000 rushing & 1,000 receiving yards in a single season! #KeepPounding @cmc_22

?: #NOvsCAR on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/HYJhHN7b2Y pic.twitter.com/emyGnA2Qr3

— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2019

Cook finished second only to Derrick Henry in rushing attempts (312/22.3 per game), rushing yardage (1,557/111.2 yards per game), and rushing touchdowns (16), even though he was absent in  Week 6 (groin), and Week 17 (family emergency). He also stockpiled 562 carries, 2,692 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 13 100-yard performances during 2019-2020 while finishing among the top three in point-per-game scoring during each of those seasons. Cook also finished second in yards before contact (801), yards after contact (756), and red zone touchdowns (13), and is primed to operate as the cornerstone of Minnesota’s ground-oriented attack once again.

Henry led all rushers in attempts (378/23.6 per game), rushing yardage (2,027/126.7 per game), and rushing touchdowns (17) for a second consecutive season in 2020. He also paced the league in rushes of 20+yards (16), and 40+ yards (4), while exceeding 100 yards in a league-high 10 contests. Henry also delivered three of the five 200-yard performances that were registered during the season, led all rushers in yards before contact (954), and accumulated 317 more yards after contact than any other back (1,073).

Henry also finished first in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and finished second in red zone attempts (59). The cumulative effects of his enormous workload might be a source of concern, but he should still be selected among the top five in all drafts.

Barkley earned his place among the elite backs after delivering outstanding numbers during his 2018 rookie season and remains entrenched among the tier 1 options entering 2021. He finished first in PPR scoring as a newcomer, while rushing for 1,307 yards, collecting 91 receptions, and leading the league in total yards from scrimmage (2,028).

Saquon Barkley rookie season:

261 rushes 1307 yds. 11 TDs
91 catches 721 yds. 4 TDs

One of the greatest rookie seasons by a Running Back ?.@Saquon | @Giants pic.twitter.com/OMVSeY9oil

— NFL UK (@NFLUK) May 9, 2021

His current ADP (4) is based on the expectation that he can evade further injuries after multiple health issues (ankle/ACL) conspired to sideline him for 17 contests during 2019-2020. Barkley should resurface with his health completely restored and is primed to regain his responsibilities as the Giants’ workhorse back. This provides the incentive to seize him among the top five in all drafts.

Tier 2

Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, Austin Ekeler

If Kamara was on your roster during 2020, then you will welcome another reminder of his historic 6-touchdown performance in Week 16. That propelled him to RB1 for the season, while he also averaged 5.0 yards per attempt, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (16). Kamara also led all backs in targets per game (7.1), receiving yards (756/50.4 per game), receiving touchdowns (5), while his league-high 83 receptions (5.5 per game) continued a streak of four consecutive seasons with 80+. His averages dropped to 4.0 targets, 2.5 receptions, and just 12.8 yards per game from Weeks 11-14, when Taysom Hill was under center. However, Kamara remains established as a first-round selection regardless of whether Hill or Jameis Winston emerges as the Saints’ starting signal-caller.

Taylor was the third running back to be selected during the 2020 NFL Draft, and the 19th to be chosen in the majority of best ball leagues. But from Weeks 1-10, Taylor was just 27th in point-per-game scoring, while averaging 12.6 carries per game. However, he soared to third in scoring from Weeks 11-17, while averaging 19.8 attempts and 123.5 yards per game. His 742 yards placed him second overall behind Henry during that sequence as he assembled 74+ during each contest. Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack lurk as candidates to pilfer touches. But Taylor will commandeer a workload that should compel fantasy managers to select him as a top-six back.

Elliott’s ADP has descended from his customary place among the top-five during 2021 best ball drafts. But his status as an RB1 remains intact entering his sixth year. He had exceeded 300 attempts, surpassed 1,350 yards, and finished at WR5 or higher in three of his first four seasons (2016/2018/2019), while also averaging 21.2 attempts and 96.9 yards per game during that sequence. But he dropped outside the top 15 in point-per-game scoring during 2020, as his per-game averages also declined (16.3 carries/65.3 yards). Elliott will operate with Tony Pollard as a prospective threat to pilfer opportunities. But he will not turn 26 until July, and his role within the Cowboys’ explosive offense makes him a viable top-10 selection.

Chubb was sidelined from Weeks 5-8 (MCL) and reached a 60% snap share percentage just twice throughout the 2020 regular season. But he finished third with an 88.9 yards per game average. That propelled him to seventh in rushing yards (1,067) despite the four-game absence. He would have finished third overall with 1,422 yards if his yards per game average had been maintained for 16 games. He also finished sixth in yards-after-contact per attempt (2.7) and was second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). Chubb remains an unquestioned RB1 who could become a top-four back if Kareem Hunt is sidelined for any reason.

Jones finished at WR5 in scoring despite being sidelined by a troublesome calf in Weeks 7-8. He also finished fourth overall with a career-high 1,104 rushing yards (78.9 per game) and has now accumulated 2,188 yards on 437 attempts during his last two seasons. Jones has also collected 96 of his 131 targets and generated 829 yards as a receiver.

Aaron Jones refused to go down in the Divisional Round. ? (by @bridgestone)@Showtyme_33 | @packers | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/cfktPHAMzq

— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2021

His sustained proficiency has compelled Brian Gutekunst and Matt Lafleur to secure him with a four-year contract. This has cleared a runway for Jones to finish the season as a top 10 back, providing that Aaron Rodgers ultimately returns under center for the Packers.

From Weeks 1-11, Akers missed four contests, while averaging just 8.3 attempts and 33.5 yards per game. But he delivered a late-season statistical surge which cemented his role as LA’s lead back. Akers averaged 19 carries and 84.8 yards per game during the Rams’ final five regular-season matchups while finishing fifth overall in attempts (95/19 per game), 10th in yardage (424/84.8 per game), and third in red zone attempts (24) during that span.

He also exploded for 221 yards (110.5 per game) on 46 attempts (23 per game) during the Rams’ two postseason matchups. Akers can be targeted as a top 10 back who can be selected late in Round 1.

Ekeler’s current ADP of 13 (RB9) is essentially unchanged from his early second-round status during the 2020 draft process (ADP14/RB10). A problematic hamstring sidelined him for six matchups last season. However, he re-emerged to lead all backs in targets (48/8 per game), receptions (37/6.2 per game), and red zone targets (8) from Weeks 12-17.

Ekeler also averaged 12 attempts and 53 yards per game from Weeks 12-16, and the fifth-year back should maintain an extensive workload in the Chargers’ restructured offense. He should also benefit from offseason upgrades that the Chargers made to their offensive line by adding rookie Rashawn Slater, along with a trio of veterans (Corey Linsley/Matt Feiler/Oday Aboushi).

Tier 3

D'Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, J.K. Dobbins, Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

If you extract Swift's season-high 116 yards in Week 5, the obstructions of a crowded backfield limited him to just 4.5 attempts and a microscopic 11.7 yards per game from Weeks 1-8. But he ignited for 246 total yards on 37 touches in Weeks 9-10, before illness and a concussion derailed his momentum from Weeks 11-14. He also finished 11th among all backs in receiving yardage (357/27.5 per game) and was 13th in both targets (57/4.4 per game), and receptions (46/3.5 per game). The backfield has been reshaped by the addition of former Packer Jamaal Williams and the release of Kerryon Johnson. This has placed Swift in a position to operate with a favorable workload, while Williams will also be allotted a reasonable percentage of touches.

It has been well-chronicled that Gibson only accumulated 33 rushing attempts during his two seasons with Memphis. But that quickly became insignificant when he surpassed that number in Week 4. He finished the season at 18th overall in 170 attempts (12.1 per game) and rushing yards (795/56.8 per game) and was sixth in rushing touchdowns (11). Gibson also led all backs in touchdowns (8) and was sixth in yardage (402/80.4 per game) from Weeks 7-12, before being limited to just four snaps from Weeks 13-15 (toe).

He also finished 10th among backs in targets (32/4.0 per game) and seventh in receiving yards (217/27.1 per game) from Weeks 4-12. It is unlikely that J.D. McKissic will match last season’s usage (110 targets/6.9 per game), and any increase in Gibson targets would elevate him toward RB1 status.

If you were among the fantasy GMs who contributed to Mixon’s ADP (10) during the 2020 draft process, then your investment delivered a reasonable return from Weeks 1-6. Mixon was RB9 in scoring, second in attempts (119/19.8 per game), seventh in rushing yards (428/71.3 per game), and 10th among backs in targets (26/4.3 per game). But his season abruptly concluded at that point due to a troublesome foot issue. However, Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan appear committed to providing Mixon with an extensive workload. The release of Giovani Bernard also allows Mixon to function in an improving Cincinnati attack without legitimate competition for touches within the backfield.

Sanders was drafted as a borderline RB1 during 2020 drafts (ADP 20/RB13) However, that enthusiasm from fantasy managers has not been matched during this offseason (ADP 32/RB18). Sanders did finish at RB23 in (PPR) scoring and rushed for 434 yards (86.8 per game) from Weeks 2-10 last season. But that average dropped to 58 per game from Weeks 11-16. Sanders also collected just 28 of his 52 targets, while his receiving yardage dropped significantly when contrasted with 2019 (509/31.8 per game-197/16.4 per game). Sanders will operate as the Eagles’ lead back. But his inefficiency as a receiver could prevent him from reaching last year’s touch totals.

J.K. Dobbins is shifty, manpic.twitter.com/h4QXnKvQLj

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 15, 2021

Dobbins averaged just 4.2 carries and 25.7 yards per game from Weeks 1-6 while performing on 36.5% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. But his snap share rose to 53.3% from Weeks 8-17. He was also allotted 11+ attempts during eight of the Ravens’ final nine matchups and averaged 12.1 carries during that span. He also finished eighth in rushing yards (651/72.3 yards per game) and sixth in touchdowns (7) during those contests, while leading all backs in Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards will continue to confiscate carries. But Dobbins will still function as an RB2 for fantasy managers.

Pittsburgh finished just 31st in run play percentage during 2020 (35.8%) and ranked dead last in rushing yardage (84.4 per game). But the arrival of Harris ensures that those percentages will rise. He will have an immediate opportunity to perform as the Steelers’ workhorse back, which has fueled his Round 2 ADP (17/RB13). Harris finished his collegiate career as Alabama’s all-time leader in rushing touchdowns (46), touchdowns from scrimmage (57), and rushing yardage (3,843), which includes the results from his stellar 2020 season (1,466 rushing yards/425 receiving yards/30 touchdowns). Concerns surrounding Pittsburgh’s offensive line still exist. But Harris is cemented atop the Steelers’ depth chart and will operate with an extensive workload.

Edwards-Helaire was the only back to be selected during Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft, which catapulted his ADP to fifth overall. The initial return on investment was favorable, as he was RB11 in scoring, second in rushing yardage (505/84.2 per game) third in attempts (107/17.8 per game), and fourth in targets (31/5.2 per game) after Week 6. But those averages dropped sizably from Weeks 7-17 (10.6 attempts/42.6 yards/3.3 targets per game). However, the depth chart below him is unimposing, and his output should improve as he accumulates touches within the potent Kansas City offense. This provides the incentive to target him in Round 2 of your drafts.

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