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Welcome to Week 22 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire pitchers. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.
Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.
These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of September 5 – September 11, looking at players below ~50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, September 3.
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Know Your Scoring System
You know what I'm going to say, right? You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.
For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.
If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.
You'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system if you look above. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls, i.e. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.
Week 22: Waiver Wire Leaderboards
I'll be real honest; it's super tough on these streaming streets in Week 22, as a lot of waiver-wire favorites are facing some matchups most won't want to mess with. So if you don't see someone you're used to seeing covered, the matchup is the likely culprit. To give you an idea of what we're facing, here are some bonus charts that show how everyone's opponents rank against their handedness in wOBA, xwOBA, and K%. Enjoy!
All charts are updated before Sunday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version. Players on overall leaderboards are ordered according to their current Roster% on Yahoo.
*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)
Week 22 Opponent Matchup Rankings
The 21-Day Leaderboard, Presented by Hansel
Overall Leaderboards
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Best Choices
Jose Quintana, STL (vs WSH, @ PIT) - Am I the only one that would be really into a buddy cop show where Jose Quintana and Martin Perez go from city to city, solving crimes with limited resources? Anywell, Quintana doesn't go deep into games but also doesn't get lit up and will have a strong two-step in Week 22. Washington is 24th in wOBA vs LHP since the start of August and 23rd in K%, while Pittsburgh is, well, Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 26th in wOBA, 30th in xwOBA, 29th in K%, and 30th in BB% vs LHP.
Justin Steele, CHC (vs CIN, vs SF) - The Cubs are back from Canada so that means Steele is back in play, getting a two-step against two mediocre offenses. Since allowing 5 ER over 5.2 IP to the Pirates on June 23, Steele has allowed a total of 9 ER over 10 starts and 54.1 IP, posting a 1.49 ERA and 2.77 FIP, with 10.8 K/9. The walks are still too high (3.8 BB/9) but Steele has some legitimate whiffery.
Jose Suarez, LAA (vs DET) - The Tigers have been terrible all season but at least they used to be better against left-handers. That isn't the case anymore, as Detroit is 28th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA vs LHP in the second half.
Eduardo Rodriguez, DET (@ LAA) - Whether on the field or MIA, Rodriguez has been a monster disappointment in 2022, most recently getting lit up by the Mariners for 6 ER over 4 IP. But he'll get a prime matchup with the Angels, against whom he shut out for five innings back on August 21, in his return to the Tigers.
Nick Lodolo, CIN (@ MIL) - Ok, let's try this again. I recommended Lodolo the last time he was set to face the Brewers, as Milwaulkee is significantly worse against left-handed pitchers, in particular, struggling against Lodolo's pitch mix. The rookie looked good for three innings but then lost it in the fourth, allowing home runs to Andrew McCutchen and Keston Hiura, ultimately finishing with 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K. But the Brewers still struggle against lefties (and their sinkers/changeups/curveballs), so I'm still going to roll with Lodolo.
Drew Smyly, CHC (vs SF) - Smyly got smashed in his last outing, allowing 7 ER over 2.1 IP in a loss to the Cardinals. But considering how hot the Cardinals' offense has been (and how devastating they've been against left-handers), I think we can give him a pass. And before that outing, Smyly had run a 0.90 ERA over his past five starts, including seven innings of shutout ball against those same Cardinals. The Giants, on the other hand, have seen their offense continue to fade from mediocre to something worse.
Rich Hill, BOS (@ TB) - Hill is capable of a blowup at any time but the last time he faced the Rays on August 27, he shut them out for seven innings and struck out 11. Let's cross our fingers and run it back again.
Roansy Contreras, PIT (vs STL) - Normally, I'd want to avoid a top offense like St. Louis but what Contreras has been doing lately (and against other top teams) can't be ignored. In his last three starts (vs ATL, @ PHI, vs TOR), Contreras has allowed a total of 3 ER over 18 IP (1.50 ERA/3.12 ERA), picking up one win and striking out 17 batters. You can't count on wins from Pirates but this stuff is going to play.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Next Choices
Brayan Bello, BOS (@ BAL) - Bello is coming off of the best start of his young career, picking up the win against the Rangers, striking out five batters over six shutout innings. The Orioles have been running hot but don't have great numbers against Bello's pitch mix (FA: 20%, SI: 37%, CH: 25%, SL: 18%):
Hopefully, Bello can find success by leaning on his four-seamer and getting whiffs from his slider.
Domingo German, NYY (vs MIN) - German continues to outpitch his peripherals (3.12 ERA/4.32 FIP/.257 BABIP/79.1% LOB%), most recently allowing 2 ER over 6.2 IP in a losing effort against the Rays. It'll be a tougher matchup in Week 22, though, as the Twins have been a top-10 offense vs RHP all season, with a K% that has been in the top-five since the start of August.
Michael Lorenzen, LAA (vs DET) - Lorenzen is making his return from injury and wasn't very good before hitting the IL in July, posting a 4.94 ERA (4.47 FIP) over 13 starts and 71 IP. But we're talking about the Tigers, here, who have been one of baseball's worst offenses vs RHP all season.
Jonathan Heasley, KC (vs DET) - Heasley isn't anything special but any matchup against the Tigers must be considered, as Detroit is 30th in wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP, 27th in K%, and 29th in BB%. And in his last start (against these same Tigers), Heasley picked up the win after allowing just 2 ER over 7 IP.
Alex Cobb, SF (@ LAD) - Cobb might be one of the best pitchers on our list but he gets one of the week's worst matchups, facing a Dodgers offensive juggernaut that also does particularly well against his pitch mix. Los Angeles is 1st in wOBA/2nd in xwOBA vs right-handed sinkers, and 4th in wOBA/2nd in xwOBA vs right-handed splitters.
Tyler Alexander, DET (@ LAA, @ KC) - Alexander has an ugly 7.23 ERA over the past three weeks but a lot of that is driven by the 3 IP/7 ER beating that he took from the Rangers on August 26. In his most recent outing, he turned in a decent performance against the Mariners, allowing 2 ER over 4.2 IP in a no-decision. And in a streaming week as lean as this one, we just can't ignore the soft opponents he'll get in a two-step in Week 22, even if playing for the Tigers makes him more unlikely to pick up win bonuses. But do be careful against the Royals, who have much better numbers vs RHP than they do against LHP, posting the 9th-highest wOBA and 10th-highest xwOBA since the start of August.
Adrian Sampson, CHC (vs CIN) - Crafty ol' Sampson is coming off of back-to-back solid (if not long) outings against two of baseball's best offenses, allowing 3 ER over 8.1 IP to St. Louis and Milwaukee. In Week 22, he'll take on a Cincinnati offense that is far lower in quality, ranking 25th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA vs RHP in 2022.
Dylan Bundy, MIN (vs CLE) - If you're interested in 4-5 IP, 1-2 ER, and 2-3 K, this could be the stream for you.
Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire - Desperate Choices
Mike Minor, CIN (@ CHC) - Listen, I know it's Mike Minor, who is, generally terrible. But he's been solid in his last two outings, including his last one against the Cardinals (who are known lefty-smashers), allowing 2 ER over 4.1 IP. Ok, not great! But we're talking about Mike Minor vs STL...What more do you want? The Cubs are extra-bad vs LHP, ranking 29th in wOBA and xwOBA against them since August 1.
Dean Kremer, BAL (vs TOR) - Kremer has been really solid for most of the season, most recently allowing 2 ER over 6 IP in a no-decision against Oakland, striking out six. Toronto is always dangerous but has been worse lately against right-handers, with the 2nd-highest wOBA for the season but are only 16th since August 1.
Austin Voth, BAL (vs BOS) - It wasn't pretty but Voth still turned in a decent line against the A's in his last start, allowing 1 ER over 3.1 IP, striking out four, and walking none. Voth now has a 2.29 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break but takes on the Jekyll and Hyde offense of the Boston Red Sox, who are 10th in wOBA and 10th in xwOBA vs RHP in 2022.
Matt Manning, DET (@ KC) - Well, that went terribly. The Matt Manning renaissance tour was abruptly blown up, with the Mariners hanging 7 ER on him in just 2.1 IP. He'll have a chance for redemption against the Royals today (Sunday) before getting another one against them in Week 22. Kansas City is 27th in wOBA vs RHP but 15th in xwOBA, with the 14th best K%.
Nick Pivetta, BOS (@ TB) - Pivetta was lifted after three innings in his last start with a calf strain, after allowing 1 ER on four hits and two walks to the Rangers. He's likely to make this start against the Rays but this probably isn't a chance you want to take if previous results have anything to do with it. Pivetta faced the Rays on July 5 (5.2 IP - 7 ER) and most recently, on August 28 (5 IP - 5 ER).
Jakob Junis, SF (@ MIL) - I recently wrote about this elsewhere but this is a dangerous outing, as Milwaukee is one of baseball's best offenses vs RHP and does particularly well against Junis's pitch mix.
Relief Pitchers Waiver Wire
Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or are elite setup guys. I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict, can be useful in leagues with daily moves. But for a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.
With that in mind, here are the best relievers on the wire for Week 22, ordered by Yahoo roster%:
Closers (and co-Closers) on the Wire
Chicago Cubs - Rowan Wick (2 appearances: 1 Save)
Cincinnati Reds - Alexis Diaz (3 appearances: 1 Win), Hunter Strickland (2 appearances)
Los Angeles Angels - Jimmy Herget (3 appearances: 2 Saves)
Miami Marlins - Tanner Scott (2 appearances)
Oakland Athletics - A.J. Puk (1 appearance: 1 Blown Save)
Pittsburgh Pirates - Wil Crowe (1 appearance: 1 Loss, 1 Blown Save)
San Diego Padres - Nick Martinez (2 appearances: 2 Saves)
Texas Rangers - Jonathan Hernandez (1 appearance: 1 Blown Save, 1 Loss), Matt Moore (2 appearances)
Washington Nationals - Kyle Finnegan (2 appearances)
Committees on the Wire
Arizona Diamondbacks - Ian Kennedy (3 appearances: 1 Save, 1 Blown Save), Joe Mantiply (3 appearances: 1 Hold, 1 Loss)
Boston Red Sox - John Schreiber (3 appearances: 1 Save), Matt Barnes (3 appearances: 1 Save)
New York Yankees - Jonathan Loaisiga (2 appearances), Wandy Peralta (1 appearance)
Philadelphia Phillies - Brad Hand (1 appearance: 1 Loss), Jose Alvarado (2 appearances)
Tampa Bay Rays - Jason Adam (4 appearances: 1 Save, 1 Hold, 1 Win), Pete Fairbanks (3 appearances: 1 Hold), Brooks Raley (1 appearance), Colin Poche (3 appearances: 1 Hold)
Random Save Chances O' the Week
All of the players who got a Save opportunity in Week 21 but aren't regular closers.
Manuel Rodriguez, CHC - Blew a Save on Monday
Dinelson Lamet, COL - Blew a Save on Friday
Alex Lange, DET - Blew a Save on Wednesday
Chris Martin, LAD - Save on Monday, blew a Save on Thursday
Matt Bush, MIL - Blew a Save on Tuesday
Caleb Thielbar, MIN - Blew a Save on Friday
Adam Ottovino, NYM - Save on Thursday
Norge Ruiz, OAK - Blew a Save on Thursday
Chase De Jong, PIT - Save on Tuesday
Jalen Beeks, TB - Save on Wednesday
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