X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Phoenix DraftKings NASCAR Lineup Picks & Projections (Premium Content)

Christopher Bell - NASCAR DFS Picks, Betting Picks, Daily Fantasy NASCAR Driver

Daily fantasy NASCAR DFS projections and lineup picks for DraftKings for the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Jordan McAbee is a NASCAR DFS veteran, with several tournament takedowns on DraftKings.

All other NASCAR Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

We're on to race number four of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, as the Shriners Children's 500 is set to take place on Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway. This is a very important race, as Phoenix is also the race that determines the Champion at the end of the year, so teams put a lot of focus into being good here in the spring in hopes of capturing the title in the fall.

Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile tri-oval flat track. It falls under the category of "short, flat tracks" that we talk about several times throughout the year, with good comparable venues being New Hampshire and Richmond. Track position means a lot at Phoenix, and speeding penalties have been plentiful here; there were 10 speeding penalties in the spring race here last season, and seven in the fall race.

DraftKings has a $444,444 prize pool for the big GPP for this weekend's Shriners Children's 500 with $100,00 going to first, so let's start breaking this slate down! You can also join the private RotoBaller DraftKings Phoenix contest by clicking here! Limited spots available.

 

Phoenix Practice Breakdown

We got an extended practice session this weekend thanks to NASCAR debuting the new short track package at Phoenix this weekend. If you haven't checked out the Practice Speeds and Notes from Friday, be sure to click here and check that out. Long-run speed and track position are going to be very important this weekend. Goodyear is also debuting a brand new tire combination this weekend with the hopes of creating more tire fall-off. 

The feedback from the drivers after practice was that this new package is the same as the last short-track package, if not worse. It was hard to pass and run in traffic with the old package, and from what teams were saying during the 50 minutes of practice on Friday, it could be even harder to pass this weekend. 

We do have five-, 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-lap averages from many drivers, though, and you can click here to see a visual heat chart of those. The Toyotas all looked to have a bunch of speed. Christopher Bell in particular had a rocket ship on the long run, ranking fastest in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap average. Bubba Wallace was fast as well, with Ross Chastain looking very fast as the laps ticked off once again--just like he was in the fall race here last season. Also noteworthy: Joey Logano found some new Phoenix speed in practice on Friday, as the No. 22 Ford (surprisingly) struggled in both Phoenix races last year.

Below is the lap average falloff chart, similar to what we looked at last weekend for Las Vegas. Remember, you have to take these numbers within a full analysis. If a driver is super fast with their short run and middle of the road with tire fall off, that doesn't mean that he's actually slow. The fast short-run speed allows for more tire fall off.

 

Lineup Building Strategy

Now that we've talked about practice, let's get to the lineup-building strategy for Sunday's race. But first, one thing to keep in mind: because of this weekend's atypical schedule--practice on Friday and qualifying on Saturday--NASCAR allowed the teams to make adjustments to the car between practice and qualifying. While we know what cars were fast during practice, that doesn't mean we should take those speeds as the holy grail since teams actually got time to adjust on the car before the race this weekend!

As far as dominator points go at Phoenix, we typically see two or three drivers gobble up most of them. In the spring race last year, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, and William Byron each had 54, 49, and 47 fastest laps (respectively) for a total of 150 fastest laps (out of 276 possible). Those three also led 301 of the 316 laps. In the fall, the fastest laps were a little more spread out, as we had six drivers with 25 or more. Chastain led the way with 52 fastest laps, while he and Byron combined to lead 252 of the 312 laps. Both races in 2022 saw two drivers lead 100+ laps in each race.

Therefore, your DraftKings lineup for Phoenix should have at least two potential dominators on it. After that, you're filling out with place differential and finishing position potential, and we have a bunch of fast cars starting outside of the top 10, so place differential is abundant. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's going to be super hard to pass with this new short-track package. That means drivers with fast pit crews will have a benefit on Sunday, as they will be able to gain ground during pit stops.

 

Core Driver Picks for Phoenix

Christopher Bell ($10,000) - Christopher Bell's No. 20 Toyota was an absolute rocketship during practice on Friday, and the short, flat tracks are where this guy really excels. He was the fastest in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages in practice, and was the favorite to qualify on the pole on Saturday, too. Bell wasn't able to put a good lap down, though, and will have to start from 13th this weekend. He's still one of the favorites to win this race and has a great combination of DraftKings driver salary, place differential/dominator potential, and finishing upside. This kid disappoints on race days more than most, so I don't like going "all in" on him this weekend, but Christopher Bell is a core pick for Phoenix.

Ross Chastain ($9,000) - I preach it every week: things don't change very much with this NextGen car! Ross Chastain was dominant here last fall because he had a super fast long-run race car, and the No. 1 Chevrolet is fast again this weekend, as Ross ranked 4th-fastest in 15-lap average and 3rd-fastest in 20-lap average during practice on Friday. Chastain has three podium finishes at Phoenix in four NextGen races, so his salary was already super favorable at $9,000. The Melon Man is a must-play on DraftKings this weekend, in my opinion. My algorithm has him projected to finish 2nd.

Austin Cindric ($6,200) - Austin Cindric is by no means good at Phoenix Raceway, but he's cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings and he qualified back in 34th for Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 race. He's also in a Penske Racing Ford, and the short, flat tracks are where that organization excels. In practice on Friday, Cindric was middle-of-the-road on speed, ranking 19th-fastest in 15-lap average and 15th-fastest in 20-lap average. Even just a low-20s finish on Sunday is likely going to get him into the optimal DraftKings lineup for Phoenix.

Other chalk plays... Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, and Josh Berry

 

Tournament Driver Picks for Phoenix

Denny Hamlin ($10,500) - Winning the pole at any race track is an advantage, but it gets magnified even more when you do so at Phoenix Raceway. It's going to be hard to pass during the race on Sunday, so Hamlin has a clear advantage to gobble up laps led since he's on the pole. Additionally, the first pit stall at Phoenix is one of the best in the series since the timing line is so close to the front of the stall, as we heard Steve Letarte talk about on the Dirty Mo podcast this week. Pair that with Hamlin's super fast pit crew, and that's a recipe for success. Oh, and we can't forget that Denny has two wins at this race track. Could it be three after this weekend?

Tyler Reddick ($8,500) - My projections love Tyler Reddick this weekend even though he qualified in sixth place for the Shriners Children's 500. Going down to Chris Buescher ($8,300) gives you some place differential upside at a cheaper price, but Reddick has the dominator upside on Sunday. This No. 45 Toyota has also finished 3rd in each of the last two spring Phoenix races, with Reddick grabbing the podium last season and Kurt Busch doing so in 2022. In practice on Friday, Reddick was fifth-fastest in 15-lap average and he had some of the lowest falloff time between 5-lap and 15-lap averages during that session.

Chase Briscoe ($7,800) - I'm not going to go crazy heavy on Chase Briscoe this weekend, but I'll be overweight on the field with this Stewart-Haas Racing driver. Remember, Briscoe won the first Phoenix race with the NextGen car, and he has posted top-10 finishes in three of the four NextGen races here. Additionally, if you look at the falloff chart above, Briscoe's No. 14 Ford was right in line with Christopher Bell's No. 20 Toyota when it came to tire falloff. If this SHR team fixed their short-run speed between practice and qualifying, Chase has a chance at being a sleeper dominator on Sunday. His 8th-place qualifying effort will keep his DraftKings ownership low. My projections love Bubba Wallace ($7,700) this weekend, so Briscoe is a great pivot play, in my opinion.

 

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan's Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix on Sunday according to my projections is:

  • Christopher Bell
  • Joey Logano
  • Ross Chastain
  • Bubba Wallace
  • Josh Berry
  • Austin Cindric

 

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

 

DraftKings Driver Projections for Phoenix

You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember: the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections. 

Driver DK Salary Proj DK Pts Proj Own Start Pos Avg Proj Finish $ Per FPT
Christopher Bell $10,000 66.53 35.50% 13 04.2 $150
Ross Chastain $9,000 64.92 30.05% 12 05.5 $139
Denny Hamlin $10,500 64.03 28.69% 1 04.2 $164
Kyle Larson $11,500 62.23 28.10% 17 04.3 $185
Joey Logano $9,500 55.85 37.42% 23 07.7 $170
Ryan Blaney $11,200 55.17 22.15% 16 06.7 $203
Tyler Reddick $8,500 49.53 13.83% 6 07.5 $172
William Byron $11,000 46.00 17.08% 5 06.7 $239
Kyle Busch $9,200 44.93 24.78% 31 16.2 $205
Martin Truex Jr $9,800 44.60 18.56% 11 07.7 $220
Chris Buescher $8,300 40.52 15.10% 14 12.3 $205
Brad Keselowski $8,200 39.92 17.26% 18 13.0 $205
Bubba Wallace $7,700 39.67 22.83% 22 12.8 $194
Josh Berry $7,200 36.67 34.17% 36 21.0 $196
Alex Bowman $7,500 31.83 16.52% 25 18.0 $236
Chase Elliott $8,800 31.73 11.39% 3 12.0 $277
Chase Briscoe $7,800 31.62 9.03% 8 13.3 $247
Daniel Suarez $7,300 28.17 14.37% 15 15.3 $259
Austin Cindric $6,200 26.97 39.19% 34 25.7 $230
Ty Gibbs $8,000 24.72 7.62% 2 14.5 $324
Ryan Preece $6,900 23.17 16.63% 27 23.2 $298
John H. Nemechek $6,500 22.67 13.96% 19 19.5 $287
Erik Jones $7,000 22.42 6.44% 4 14.7 $312
Austin Dillon $6,800 18.83 17.29% 30 26.5 $361
Corey LaJoie $6,300 17.83 19.64% 35 29.5 $353
Michael McDowell $6,700 14.77 6.83% 9 20.2 $454
Zane Smith $5,700 14.00 12.99% 28 27.8 $407
Justin Haley $5,200 11.83 6.01% 33 31.3 $439
Harrison Burton $5,400 11.67 8.89% 24 27.2 $463
Ricky Stenhouse Jr $6,400 11.50 9.38% 20 25.3 $557
Carson Hocevar $6,000 11.15 5.04% 10 21.5 $538
Todd Gilliland $5,900 08.00 12.51% 29 31.2 $738
Daniel Hemric $5,600 07.00 9.80% 21 27.8 $800
Kaz Grala $5,000 06.50 1.44% 32 33.3 $769
Derek Kraus $5,100 03.50 2.75% 26 31.8 $1,457
Noah Gragson $6,600 02.02 6.76% 7 24.5 $3,273

 

NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks


More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis



The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success

NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller!
Our NASCAR Premium Package for DFS and betting features several heavy hitters and proven winners.

Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.

Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Tony Gonsolin

Set To Make Season Debut On Wednesday
Austin Gomber

Has Not Thrown For A Month
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Tyler Glasnow

Could Land On Injured List
Tommy Edman

Resting On Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jake Fraley

Scratched From Monday's Lineup
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Hitting Leadoff Again On Monday
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Nick Kurtz

Out Against A Southpaw
Josh Jung

Back In Action On Monday
Giancarlo Stanton

Stays Back In New York
Ben Rice

Sitting Versus Orioles
Jordan Westburg

Day-To-Day, Not Playing Against Yankees
Cedric Mullins

Feeling Better, Back In Monday's Lineup
Adley Rutschman

Back In Baltimore's Lineup On Monday
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Chandler Simpson

Extends Hit Streak To Eight Games With Three-Hit Effort
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Save No. 10, Tied For League Lead
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Jordan Romano

Earns The Save In Extras On Sunday
Justin Martinez

Shaky In Recording Third Save
Pete Fairbanks

Notches Sixth Save On Sunday
Luis Urías

Luis Urias' Home Run Wins It For The A's In Extras
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
Carolina Panthers

Hunter Renfrow Signs With Panthers
Rafael Devers

Blasts Another Home Run
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer
New York Jets

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Atlanta Falcons

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Tennessee Titans

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Indianapolis Colts

Riley Leonard Drafted By Colts Saturday
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Miami Dolphins

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF