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Offensive Outliers From Week 6 - Coaching Matters

Noah Fant - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

We now enter the sixth week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 6, we saw stat lines such as the Cincinnati Bengals running backs combining for 235 scrimmage yards, the Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers combining for five receptions, and the Denver Broncos tight end room combining for 16 targets.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Washington Football Team Wide Receivers

Scott Turner

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2020 Washington Football Team 12.13 18.44 141.25 0.5
Scott Turner Prior (20 games) 12.1 19.15 140.05 0.45
Washington Football Team WRs vs. Kansas City Chiefs 7 18 54 0

The Washington Football Team wide receiver room couldn't get much going against the Kansas City Chiefs this past week as they combined for seven receptions on 18 targets for 54 receiving yards. After this game, this group has totaled 68 receptions (11.33 per game) on 119 targets (19.83 per game) for 801 receiving yards (133.5 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game). Overall, there should be better performances than this past Sunday for the Washington Football Team wide receivers, but their season averages are right in line with what we'd expect from a Scott Turner wide receiver room.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeAndre Carter, Dyami Brown, Curtis Samuel, Cam Sims, Terry McLaurin, Adam Humphries, Max Milne

Los Angeles Chargers Wide Receivers

Joe Lombardi

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2020 Chargers 12.69 20.31 170.63 1.19
Joe Lombardi Prior (23 games) 13.48 22.13 180.48 0.87
Los Angeles Chargers WRs vs. Baltimore Ravens 9 19 100 0

The Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver room combined for nine receptions on 19 targets for 100 receiving yards in the blowout against the Baltimore Ravens. After this game, the Chargers wide receiver room has totaled 90 receptions (15 per game) on 145 targets (24.17 per game) for 1,126 receiving yards (187.67 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (1.17 per game) on the season. Looking ahead to after the BYE week this week, the Chargers wide receivers should have better performances that are more in line with the current season averages.

Fantasy players this impacts: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, K.J. Hill

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2020 Eagles 17.38 84.38 0.5 3.75 6.06 27.25 0.06
Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) 24.08 110.33 0.83 5.85 7.31 42.42 0.17
Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) 24.08 99.33 0.54 8.29 10.17 67.46 0.21
Eagles RBs vs. Carolina Panthers 13 61 0 6 8 14 0

The Philadelphia Eagles running backs have consistently landed on this list in the first half of the season, and make yet another appearance after they combined for nine carries, 56 rushing yards, three receptions, six targets, 11 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After this game, on the season the Philadelphia Eagles' running backs have totaled 78 carries (13 per game), 370 rushing yards (61.67 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.33 per game), 35 receptions (5.83 per game), 48 targets (eight per game), 249 receiving yards (41.5 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. Based on past coaching data, you'd think there should be better performances ahead for this group, but if they don't turn in a decent performance against the Las Vegas Raiders this week it's probably not going to happen this year.

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott

Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receivers

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2020 Eagles 10.38 18.31 130.13 0.88
Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) 11.46 18.17 145.40 0.85
Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) 11.79 18.83 163.67 1
Eagles WRs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 12 75 0

The Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers had a rough game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where they combined for five receptions on 12 targets for 75 receiving yards. After this game, on the season the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room has totaled 62 receptions (10.33 per game) on 97 targets (16.17 per game) for 826 receiving yards (137.67 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game). Right now the Eagles' wide receivers seem to be running on the lower side of what we'd expect based on their coaches and last year's production, so if you are interested in buying low on one of their wide receivers now would be a pretty good time.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Greg Ward

Cleveland Browns Running Backs

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2020 Browns 26.88 132.63 1.13 3.63 4.63 29.38 0.31
Kevin Stefanski Prior (35 games) 26.4 127.51 1.09 4.26 5.31 36.14 0.17
Alex Van Pelt Prior (32 games) 24.75 114.25 0.69 4.13 5.41 31.88 0.22
Cleveland Browns RBs vs. Arizona Cardinals 15 68 0 6 6 33 0

The Cleveland Browns running backs were on the 'Decline Ahead?' side of this list last week and ended up living up to that prediction as they combined for 15 carries, 68 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, six receptions, six targets, 33 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals.

On the season, the Cleveland Browns' running backs have now totaled 162 carries (27 per game), 895 rushing yards (149.17 per game), nine rushing touchdowns (1.5 per game), 34 receptions (5.67 per game), 39 targets (6.5 per game), 293 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown (0.17 per game). Based on all of this information, there will be better performances than this past Sunday ahead, but overall the season averages may still drop a bit to be more in line with what we've traditionally seen from Kevin Stefanski's running back room - especially with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt banged up.

Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Demetric Felton, and D'Ernest Johnson

 

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Denver Broncos Tight Ends

Pat Shurmur

TE Rec. TE Tgts TE Rec. Yds TE Rec. TD
2020 Broncos 6.06 9.25 60.88 0.38
Pat Shurmur Prior (185 games) 5.28 8.18 56.79 0.4
Broncos TEs vs. Las Vegas Raiders 12 16 120 1

Despite the loss, the Denver Broncos tight end room had a great day against the Las Vegas Raiders, combining for 12 receptions on 16 targets for 120 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. After this game, this group has totaled 44 receptions (7.33 per game) on 60 targets (10 per game) for 367 receiving yards (61.17 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game) on the season. While Pat Shurmur is historically one of the better offensive play-callers for tight ends in the NFL right now, this group is running on the higher side of what we'd expect and might be slightly overvalued at the moment.

Fantasy players this impacts: Noah Fant, Eric Saubert, Albert Okwuegbunam

Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2020 Bengals 20.75 81.38 0.56 5.25 6.38 36.81 0.25
Zac Taylor Prior (37 games) 20.92 81.24 0.49 4.59 5.86 34.57 0.19
Brian Callahan Prior (32 games) 20.72 81.53 0.44 4.66 5.94 34.69 0.22
Bengals RBs vs. Detroit Lions 28 127 0 8 9 108 2
The Cincinnati Bengals running backs balled out against the Detroit Lions, combining for 28 carries, 127 rushing yards, eight receptions, nine targets, 108 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 131 carries (21.83 per game), 598 rushing yards (99.67 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game), 28 receptions (4.67 per game), 33 targets (5.5 per game), 248 receiving yards (41.33 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game). Based on all of this information, it's clear that Sunday's performance was an outlier and in general, the Cincinnati Bengals running backs are running on the higher side of what we'd expect from a Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Joe Mixon, Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, Samaje Perine

Baltimore Ravens Running Backs

Greg Roman

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2020 Ravens 22.63 117.94 1.06 2.38 3.19 19.94 0
23.80 108.26 0.81 2.38 3.35 19.66 0.11
Ravens RBs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
26 115 3 2 4 12 0

The Baltimore Ravens running backs were dominant against the Los Angeles Chargers as they combined for 26 carries, 115 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, two receptions, four targets, and 12 receiving yards. On the season this group has totaled 120 carries (20 per game), 511 rushing yards (85.17 per game), seven rushing touchdowns (1.17 per game), 14 receptions (2.33 per game), 21 targets (3.5 per game), 119 receiving yards (19.83 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns. Based on this information, we likely won't see another performance like this past Sunday from the Baltimore Ravens running backs any time soon, but the season averages are roughly in line with what we'd expect from a Greg Roman running back room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Latavius Murray, Ty'Son Williams, Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell



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