The Grass Isn't Greener - Free Agents Whose Value Will Decrease

June 10, 2018

NFL free agents who will flop and decrease their fantasy football production in 2018 after moving to new teams. Jason Katz identifies players who could be fallers and draft day avoids.

We are about three months removed from Free Agency. The NFL Draft has come and gone. The fantasy picture is starting to become clearer as we near draft season. Immediately following free agent signings, fantasy analysts all over had instant reactions, and rightfully so. Those reactions were based on the NFL landscape at the time. Three months later, we have a lot more information and a lot more is set in stone regarding team rosters.

While depth charts will undoubtedly shuffle between now and September, a little over a month after the NFL Draft is a great time to reassess which free agent moves actually decreased the value of the players with new homes.

Let's take a look at some players with new homes to avoid at their current ADP. To see my free agent risers, click here.

Free Agents Who Will Flop

QUARTERBACKS

Alex Smith (QB, WAS)

Okay, I admit it. This is cheating. Alex Smith was never a free agent, but he's on a new team and his value has changed so let's pretend he was a free agent so we can talk about it. Smith's fantasy value last season was derived largely from his deep ball. Despite his reputation, Smith was the most accurate deep ball passer in the league with a 56.5% adjusted completion percentage. According to Pro Football Focus, he attempted the 11th most deep passes in the league. Smith now leaves Kansas City for Washington. He leaves Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for Jamison Crowder and maybe a handful of games from Jordan Reed. With no real downfield threat (sorry Josh Doctson dynasty owners, he doesn't count) and the Redskins' two best pass catchers being underneath guys (Crowder and Chris Thompson), Smith's average depth of target is going to decrease significantly, along with all his efficiency stats, and his fantasy value.

RUNNING BACKS

Carlos Hyde (RB, CLE)

I have had a love/hate relationship with Carlos Hyde. Which is not to say I've ever not liked Hyde as a player - I always have - I've just loved and hated him in fantasy based on his situation each year. I loved him last year because the 49ers had complete trash around him and he projected as a three down back. It worked out. When he went to Cleveland, his value immediately dropped due to the presence of Duke Johnson. Hyde was never going to be a big part of the passing game so his 88 targets from last season would be impossible to repeat or even get close. It was already a hit to his fantasy value, but Hyde was still someone worth targeting at the right price due to his clear early down and goal line role. Then, the Browns spent an early second round pick on Nick Chubb. That was the final nail in the coffin for Hyde's fantasy value. I still think Hyde is the "starter" and leads this backfield in carries, but Chubb is not simply going to sit and watch for an entire season. He will be active and rotate in. It won't be enough for Chubb to have any value, but it will be enough to sap Hyde of his.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, NYG)

He's a questionable name for this list because he didn't have fantasy value last year to begin with. He was a borderline fantasy pick in drafts last season and by the end of the season, he had no value. But whatever shot he might have had in tandem with Christian McCaffrey would have been better than being behind Saquon Barkley. In addition to being merely a backup, Stewart has also been done for two years. If Barkley were to go down, we would be back to where we've been for years with the Giants - no RB is worth owning.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

The way for Jarvis Landry to generate fantasy points is to rack up receptions underneath. That's all he does and he's very good at it. In Miami, he was the only game in town. He had  a 27.4% target share, which was seventh most in the league, and led to him finishing third in the league in targets with 161. In Cleveland, he is now competing with Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Antonio Callaway, Duke Johnson, and David Njoku for targets. Landry will steal lead the Browns in target and receptions, he just won't be seeing the volume he did in Miami, where they lacked a true satellite back or anything resembling a competent NFL tight end.

Jordy Nelson (WR, OAK)

I am basing the comparison in Jordy Nelson's fantasy value upon what we've come to expect from Nelson over the years. Nelson will undoubtedly have more fantasy value than he did last year, but that would've been the case no matter where he signed. In Oakland, he's playing for a coach that appears to have no idea what he's doing. The Raiders made some of the worst offseason moves in replacing Michael Crabtree with Nelson, retaining Marshawn Lynch, and signing Doug Martin. Gruden has openly stated he wants to bring things back to 1998. And that's just the ancillary stuff. On the field, truth be told, we don't really know how good Nelson ever was. He's only played at an elite level with Aaron Rodgers. We never cared because he almost always had Rodgers. For the first time in his career, we are certain he will not have Rodgers. Instead, he has Derek Carr, who was simply dreadful last season. Maybe he was hampered by the back injury. Maybe not. Regardless, he's not Rodgers. Additionally, Nelson is the clear second option behind Amari Cooper and the team traded for Martavis Bryant. Nelson won't be a priority the same way he was in Green Bay. I also think Nelson is done. He's still worth a late round stab, but there's little reason for optimism here.

Donte Moncrief (WR, JAX)

This one will be short and sweet. Donte Moncrief could justifiably cling to fantasy value tethered to Andrew Luck as the number two option. In Jacksonville, he has absolutely no value whatsoever. Moncrief has proven that is not good at football and now he's competing with Keelan Cole, DeDe Wesetbrook, Marqise Lee, and D.J. Chark for snaps. Moncrief will never be fantasy relevant again.

TIGHT ENDS

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, JAX)

With the Jets, Austin Seferian-Jenkins was a clear option in the red zone. He's a massive target at 6'6 and the Jets didn't have an abundance of WRs. Jacksonville has a medley of good, not great WRs, and they never really used fellow 6'6 TE, Marcedes Lewis, as a red zone threat. Lewis wasn't really involved in the offense at all. While ASJ is certainly a better player than Lewis, there are just too many options in this passing game that is led by a bad quarterback for a team that wants to run.

More 2018 NFL Free Agency Analysis