RADIO
Welcome to the Week 10 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have a bit of a larger player pool to work with in Week 10 as opposed to last Sunday, as there are four teams on bye as opposed to six. That naturally affords us more value options overall, but there are still some positions where it's a bit of a challenge to find some appealing candidates at certain positions. Nevertheless, we've got a case to make for multiple players to consider at each position, including multiple site-specific selections in addition to the standard suggestions.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jared Goff, DET at CHI | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25
Goff admittedly isn't always the most trustworthy play, especially outside the friendly confines of Ford Field. However, the veteran makes for a viable value option on a week where cost-effective quarterbacks are hard to come by. Goff does have a pair of tallies of greater than 20 fantasy points on al three sites thus far this season, and despite throwing for just 137 yards overall against the Packers in the Week 9 win, he also tossed a pair of touchdowns. Sunday, he draws a more palatable matchup against the Bears, which were frequently targeted with success by the Dolphins a week ago and the Cowboys in Week 8 as well. Chicago's numbers against the pass look deceptively good on the surface, but there's more to the story when drilling down some.
To begin with, the Bears are allowing 44 yards per game more over their season figure in their last three games (244.7, compared to 200.7). Additionally, before getting torched by Tua Tagovailoa in Week 9, the Bears had built their elite numbers at home against Trey Lance in monsoon-like conditions in Week 1, Davis Mills in Week 3 and a shaky Carson Wentz in Week 6. Goff arguably brings more upside, and he was stellar against the Bears in two meetings last season while completing 71.4 percent of his passes for 470 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Finally, consider the Bears have been giving up plenty of chunk plays through the air, both recently (NFC-high 12.4 yards per completion surrendered in last three games) and at home overall (11.8 yards per completion allowed on season).
Jacoby Brissett, CLE at MIA | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $24
Brissett's starting tenure is soon coming to an end, but he could have a chance to put together a solid performance relative to his salaries Sunday. The Browns are well-rested coming off a bye, and the steady Brissett could therefore be especially well-prepared versus one of his old squads, which has significantly underperformed in the secondary this season despite some big names. Despite his typically cautious style of play, Brissett has shown some fantasy upside this season, putting up his highest average yards per attempt (7.3) since his rookie 2016 campaign and producing 23 completions of at least 20 yards in eight contests.
The Dolphins have given up 244.3 passing yards per game at home, and although they've been much better keeping completions shorter there (8.5 yards per completion allowed) than on the road (12.4 YPC surrendered), that actually fits well with Brissett's biggest comfort zone as a passer. Additionally, Miami has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the red zone (13) and the fourth-highest red-zone TD scoring percentage (70%), furthering Brissett's case at his salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER: Sam Ehlinger, IND at LVR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $23/ *If Josh Allen (elbow) is ruled out*: Case Keenum | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $23
DK-Only Special: Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET | $6,500
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Dameon Pierce, HOU at NYG | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $23
Pierce has already become the one reliable piece on an otherwise lackluster, inconsistent Texans offense. The rookie is dealing with chest and shoulder issues stemming from the Week 9 loss to the Eagles, but assuming he suits up, he'll qualify as Houston's best chance of moving the chains against a Giants defense that's been very difficult to pass against but has been generous against the run. Pierce has been a factor in the passing game as well with 20 receptions, and his 22.3 percent broken-tackle rate is elite.
The Giants are giving up 170.5 rushing yards per home game and 5.4 RB yards per carry overall. New York is also ranked No. 25 in second-level yards and No. 30 in open-field yards allowed, while Houston's offensive line has facilitated a solid 4.6 RB yards per rush. Meanwhile, in addition to frequently getting past first contact, Pierce is logging a touch on over 58% of the Texans' snaps, a massive degree of usage that figures to persist Sunday considering the way the matchup lines up.
Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA vs. CLE | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $18
It's a bit challenging to find viable running backs with true value salaries across all three sites, but Wilson, who enjoyed a successful Dolphins debut in Week 9, does fit the bill, even though he'll still presumably work in a pretty close timeshare with new/old backfield mate Raheem Mostert again. Wilson totaled 72 yards on 12 touches against Chicago on Sunday, and his prior body of work in San Francisco corroborates his ability to get into the triple digits yardage-wise with enough touches.
The Browns have given up 138.7 rushing yards per road game, along with 4.9 RB yards per carry overall. Cleveland also ranks No. 27 in open field yards allowed, while Wilson has sneaky explosiveness when he gets into the second level and has clocked an above-average 3.0 yards after first contact. Then, consider the Browns are tied with multiple teams for second-most red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed (11) and rank in the bottom half of the league with 3.7 red-zone scoring attempts yielded per road game, while Wilson had already amassed 17 red-zone touches in eight games with San Fran and got five right from the jump in his Miami debut against the Bears.
ALSO CONSIDER: David Montgomery, CHI vs. DET | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $21
Yahoo-Only Special: Travis Etienne, JAC at KC | $26
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Chris Olave, NO at PIT | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $26
The Saints now expect to be without Michael Thomas (foot/toe) for the rest of the season, but Jarvis Landry (ankle) apparently has a chance to return for this Week 10 matchup. An appearance by the veteran could actually help take at least a degree of defensive attention away from Olave, but the speedy rookie remains an option irrespective of that development. Olave has shown some solid rapport with current starter Andy Dalton, posting a 26-350-2 line and drawing targets on an impressive 36.4% of his routes over that span.
The Steelers have given up a robust 277.3 passing yards per game overall, including 260 per contest in the last three. Additionally, no team carries a higher yards per completion figure allowed on the season than Pittsburgh's 12.2, and the Steelers have also yielded an AFC-high 1,703 receiving yards to wideouts, as well as an NFL-high 13 touchdowns to the position. For his part, Olave has just two touchdowns thus far, but he's averaging more than one red-zone touch per game (nine in eight contests), is clocking a massive 129.8 air yards per game and has a 14.4-yard aDOT, all figures that imply he should see his luck turn around soon.
Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. DET | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
Mooney came through nicely as a value suggestion a week ago, finally getting into the end zone for the first time this season in the narrow loss to the Dolphins while posting a 7-43 line on eight targets overall. The robust attention from Justin Fields has been a pattern for some time as well, as Mooney has logged at least six targets on four occasions since Week 3. The speedster is also carrying a career-high 12.1-yard aDOT and lays claim to just under 38% of Chicago's air yards, giving him some nice upside against a vulnerable Lions defense.
Detroit is surrendering 281.3 passing yards per game over the last three, and the Lions are also allowing the second-most yards per completion (11.7) in the league. What's more, they've conceded a healthy 66.4 percent catch rate to wideouts, along with the seventh-most receiving yards (1,527) and an average of a touchdown per game (8) to the position. Detroit has also yielded 10 red-zone passing TDs overall, giving Mooney some extra upside in a game the Bears carry an implied total of 25.5 points in.
Darius Slayton, NYG vs. HOU | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $10
Slayton makes for an interesting tournament leverage play against a Texans defense that's been the easiest in the league to run on, but that's also quietly displayed a propensity for allowing some longer completions, particularly on the road. Slayton has the speed to take advantage of any unit's tendency to allow downfield success, putting up the second-highest average yards per reception of his career (14.5), tallying at least 20 yards on three of his first 16 grabs of the season, and recording a robust 14.0-yard aDOT.
The Texans, despite surrendering just over 200 yards per game on the road, have allowed the fifth-highest yards per completion (11.8) in that split as well. Houston is also giving up an elevated 14.5 yards per catch to wideouts, and although they've surrendered the fewest receptions (79) to the position, that's the byproduct of facing the fewest targets (124) directed at wideouts. While head coach Brian Daboll will undoubtedly go with a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley in this game given the matchup, don't discount Slayton as a very low-risk value play that could pay off on one catch.
ALSO CONSIDER: Christian Kirk, JAC at KC | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $21
DK/Yahoo-only Special: Amari Cooper, CLE at MIA | DK: $6,500, Yahoo: $24
Yahoo-only Special: Gabe Davis, BUF vs. MIN | $17
Tight End DFS Value Plays
T.J. Hockenson, MIN at BUF | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
Hockenson's Vikings debut in Week 9 against the Commanders served notice to the rest of the league that Kirk Cousins may finally have that reliable third passing game weapon, considering the big tight end finished with a team-leading nine catches. While those receptions only totaled 70 yards, Hockenson ran a season-high 36 routes right from the jump in his Vikings tenure, certainly an encouraging sign despite what is a tough matchup on paper against the Bills overall, but one that actually hasn't been prohibitive for tight ends.
The Bills have surrendered a 42-357 line to tight ends on 60 targets while also giving up a stingy 61.9 percent catch rate to wide receivers, which naturally encourages some action toward the former. Kirk Cousins won't be ignoring Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen by any means, but the fact Buffalo could get Tre'Davious White back Sunday from his knee injury could make the matchup all the thornier on the perimeter. Hockenson has the speed to get down the seam or up the sideline when given the chance, and the Vikes may well have to call on him frequently in this matchup whether it's Case Keenum or Allen guiding the offense on the other side.
Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. ARI | DK: $3,600, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $14
Higbee is going to be off the radar for many DFS players in Week 10 after recording all of three receptions for 22 yards on nine targets over his last three games. Higbee has atypically run under 20 routes in each of those contests, but sharp players will give him some consideration, at least for tournaments, in an advantageous positional matchup Sunday. Higbee recorded a 4-61 line on four targets versus the Cardinals in Week 3, and Arizona continues to be one of the most generous defenses in the league to tight ends.
The Cards have surrendered an NFL-high 66 receptions and 694 receiving yards to tight ends, along with a co-NFL-high seven touchdowns to the position. Higbee has yet to find the end zone this season, but that arguably profiles as an anomaly -- he logged 20 red-zone targets in 15 games last season and scored five touchdowns for the second consecutive season, and this season, he's being targeted on just under 28% of his routes, compared to 18.8% in 2021. Factoring in Arizona has yielded an NFL-high 15 passing touchdowns in the red zone and is surrendering an NFL-high 4.1 red-zone scoring attempts per game, Higbee could well be headed for his first trip to the end zone this season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Greg Dulcich, DEN at TEN | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18
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