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Ryan Goodman's DFS sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for the NFL playoffs Divisional Round (2024). His value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
We've finally reached the point where the remaining games for the 2023 season have reached single digits. While that is a sad realization, there are still seven games of high-level, do-or-die football yet to be played. This is where the playoffs start to really heat up. Wild Card games are fun, but they are usually overshadowed by the remaining games, and rightfully so. There are of course a few exceptions, but the Divisional Round is where the stakes are that much higher because a trip to the conference championship is on the line.
The infamous Dez Bryant "incompletion" in Lambeau, Joe Flacco's bomb to Jacoby Jones vs. Denver, and Tom Brady's tuck rule snow game, there are so many ludicrous Divisional Round playoff games that you can't write the story of football without.
For DFS purposes, the contests get harder with the player pools shrinking considerably. Margins are thinner. One decision can win or lose you a week more often. Here are some value plays for the Divisional Round that should help when crafting a lineup.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Divisional Round
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,800
Matchup: vs. Green Bay (22nd vs. opposing QBs - FD)
I was really tempted to go with Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield here once again, but I'm taking 2022's Mr. Irrelevant, who should have a field day against this Green Bay pass defense. DraftKings offers better value with Purdy the fifth-most expensive quarterback vs. third on FanDuel, but he is still in play on the latter format given the matchup and point total in this game.
Don't let the Packers defense in the first half vs. Dallas fool you. This unit is not a very good one, especially their ability to slow down opposing quarterbacks. Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield combined to throw for nearly 700 yards and six touchdowns on them within the past month. Dak Prescott forgot how to throw the football for an entire half and still ended as the highest-scoring QB on the week with over 400 passing yards.
The main scare with taking Purdy is that this becomes a CMC game where he steals multiple touchdowns, but I don't think that's a legitimate concern. Both players were able to coexist as fantasy studs this season -- McCaffrey RB1, Purdy QB6 -- so I am not worried about that being an issue.
The Niners have an embarrassment of riches in terms of offensive skill position players -- there isn't a matchup that is a disadvantage for them on that side of the ball. With an extra seven days of rest built in and an implied team total of 30 points, you're going to want some of the Niners' offensive pieces in this one. Take the guy that puts the ball in their hands.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700
Matchup: vs Tampa Bay (26th vs. opposing QBs - DK)
It was tough deciding between Goff and Mayfield here, and while I think both are sound plays, I'm going to take Goff with a bounce-back effort at home. The former No. 1 overall pick didn't come through for fantasy managers last week, but there are still many reasons for optimism heading into this next game.
Goff played a very clean game given the circumstances, with only five incompletions to go along with 277 yards and a score. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs also found the end zone, which took away some potential TDs. Almost all of the fantasy production came on both sides in the first half, which saw 38 points on the board, but only nine were scored in the second half. That's very unlikely to happen again.
Goff's 14.78 DK points didn't pay off against his $6,100 cap hit, but that will change against Tampa Bay, who has a bottom-three passing defense in the league. Philly and Washington really fought hard for the title of worst secondary in 2023, but the Bucs were right there behind them by being 30th in passing yards allowed, 25th in yards per attempt, 21st in completion percentage, and 20th in touchdowns.
The way to beat this team is to throw on them, which Goff did all afternoon in Week 6. With 353 yards and two scores, Goff had his highest road output of the season against Tampa with 22.4 fantasy points. I expect him to approach those numbers in this one, especially being at home where he has delivered more often than not for fantasy.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Divisional Round
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $6,400, FD: $7,500
Matchup: at Buffalo (16th vs. opposing RBs - DK)
Only eight starting running backs remain in these playoffs, which means the value plays get slimmer and slimmer. Last week the move was Tony Pollard over Pacheco, but now I am back on Pacheco as the guy to target here. With everyone spending up for McCaffrey (and rightfully so), many will pivot to some cheaper options at running back to try and grab some of the pricey wideout or QB options.
Kansas City clearly views Pacheco as their workhorse running back, giving him 25 opportunities against the Dolphins last week, which he turned into 90 total yards and a score. He wasn't super efficient on the ground with 3.7 YPC, but if he gets that many opportunities in Buffalo, he is going to pay off.
Pacheco is also facing a Bills defense that is absolutely decimated by injuries at the moment. Two starters -- CB Christian Benford (knee) and S Taylor Rapp (calf) have already been ruled out, with depth LB Baylon Spector (back) not playing as well. Other starters Taron Johnson, Rasul Douglas, and Tyrel Dodson are heading toward being game-time decisions. Buffalo ranks middle of the pack in most rush defensive metrics, except they are fifth-worst in YPC. With the Chiefs passing offense not being what it once was, a heavy dose of Pacheco is likely on tap for this highly anticipated Divisional rematch.
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens | DK: $5,900 | FD: $6,900
Matchup: vs. Houston (15th vs. opposing RBs - DK)
While it's fun to imagine this team with a healthy J.K. Dobbins or Derrick Henry, the reality of the situation is that Baltimore has Gus Edwards as their lead back, and like it or not, he's a pretty damn good football player. A crazy stat that I would not have been able to guess: Edwards and Nick Chubb are the only running backs to average five yards a carry or more in each of the past five seasons (minimum of 85 carries).
The efficiency definitely took a hit this year with Edwards' YPC dropping to 4.1, but he made up for that with 13 scores, which ranked third in his position. The former undrafted free agent was beyond busy at the goal line this season, doubling his career touchdown output in 2023.
'Gus the Bus' doesn't get much receiving work, having caught only 12 passes all season. This of course makes him a riskier play, especially for DraftKings full-PPR scoring. Besides McCaffrey though, no other running back on the slate has more touchdown upside than Edwards, who is force-fed the ball when Baltimore gets within the five yard line.
Just take a look at these rushing scores by yardage this season: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 4, 3, 1, 7, 1, 1, 2, 1. 29 total yards covered on those 13 touchdowns. That is a goal-line back in the truest sense of the term. Edwards is Baltimore's Jalen Hurts. When the ball reaches the opponents' 5-yard line, odds are it's ending in a Gus Edwards touchdown and I will bet that he reaches pay dirt at least once in this game.
While Houston's rush defense has been a dream matchup for running backs in years past, they turned a corner this season and actually boast a respectable run-stopping unit. This defense did just let Jonathan Taylor almost hang 200 on them, though, and the Ravens are a different beast. Especially with Lamar Jackson keeping the defense honest, this should lead to multiple scoring opportunities from the bruising back.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Divisional Round
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,900
Matchup: at Detroit (32nd vs. opposing WRs - FD)
While the Philly matchup worked for Baker Mayfield, it didn't pay off for his two top wideouts, who scored a combined 22.3 fantasy points in their Wild Card win. Mike Evans did drop what would've been a surefire 47-yard touchdown in the first quarter, but Mayfield was adamant about spreading the wealth against a terrible Eagles secondary, as nine players recorded at least one reception.
Cade Otton led the team in targets, receiving yards, and receptions vs. Philly, but it was the only time this season that he led in all categories. In fact, Otton has only finished as the team leader in receiving yards only one other time. That's not going to happen again. This means more for Godwin and Evans, who will need to be relied upon for the Bucs to keep up in this game.
Like Tampa, Detroit also has one of the premier rush defenses in the game -- top-three in rush yards and YPC allowed -- but is terrible at stopping the pass. This will force Baker Mayfield to throw quite a bit, and will automatically lead to more opportunities for Godwin, who was able to get in the end zone last week.
While Evans provides the greater upside due to his big-play ability, his cost went up $300 relative to Godwin's $100. If you're opting to go big with a QB or McCaffrey at RB, Godwin offers a safe floor with a tinge of upside given how much Mayfield will have to throw.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,900
Matchup: vs. Kansas City (3rd vs. opposing WRs - DK)
This one is purely about opportunity. Buffalo's WR2 Gabe Davis was unable to go against Pittsburgh due to a PCL sprain suffered in Week 18, which gave Shakir the start next to Stefon Diggs. Davis has already been ruled out for this upcoming game, so Shakir will once again start for a second consecutive weekend. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has been deadly against opposing No. 1 wideouts, making Diggs a risky high-cost play this week, while Shakir is about half that cap hit. And this:
The Chiefs do boast another great cover corner in Trent McDuffie, so while Shakir will have the WR2 spot all to himself yet again, this is not an easy matchup by any means. The fifth-round rookie has flashed some big-play ability this season and other than the guy listed below him, there isn't another player that offers the same upside that Shakir does in his cost range. Give me the second wide receiver in a Josh Allen-led offense for $3800.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,300
Matchup: vs. Tampa Bay (27th vs. opposing WRs - FD)
I'm biting the bullet and taking another chance on Jamo here. He didn't hit last week, hauling in only two passes for 19 yards, and now he's $100 more as the option pool shrinks. The reason I believe in Williams again here is because of the Bucs' propensity to give up big plays in the passing game. Tampa ranks fifth-worst in the NFL for 20+ yard completions allowed and is 29th in passing yards given up.
As I noted above when discussing Goff's outlook, the three biggest pass-funnel defenses of 2023 are Philly, Washington, and Tampa. Detroit isn't far off that mark as well, so the Bucs offense will very likely put up their fair share of points, which is what you want for fantasy purposes.
Add in the fact that Tampa boasts one of the strongest rush defenses in the sport, and you have another inviting scenario for Williams. I was disappointed with the lack of deep shots last game against the Rams, but there will be a greater opportunity to take the top off the defense in this one like he did back in Week 6.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Divisional Round
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,400
Matchup: vs. Green Bay (28th vs. opposing TEs - DK)
Don't overcomplicate this one. The Packers just allowed Jake Ferguson to haul in three touchdowns and have been mediocre in defending opposing tight ends all season. Kittle averages over 5.5 receptions and 80+ yards against Green Bay. He is coming off of two weeks rest and should be a featured option in this game. The former Iowa Hawkeye has not been very consistent this season but shows up when it matters most. Kittle will be the highest scoring TE on the week.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4,700 FD: $5,500
Matchup: vs. Houston (29th vs. opposing TEs)
The Ravens did not activate Mark Andrews off of IR ahead of their Divisional Round matchup vs. Houston, which means Likely will continue to hold down the TE1 spot. Since the superstar tight end went down in Week 11 vs. Cincy, Likely has averaged 13.9 PPR points per game, fifth among TEs league-wide, which includes a Week 13 bye.
With how atrocious Houston has been vs. tight ends -- David Njoku just gashed them for 93 yards on seven catches -- Likely is a great play as the fifth or sixth-highest priced tight end depending on which format you're using. He doesn't offer the upside of a Kittle but has been one of the more consistent options at the position since he took over.
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