RADIO
Matt Terelle offers up optimal high, mid, and low-priced DFS stacks for the Super Bowl. These GPP tournament stacks are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
Hey there RotoBallers! After an exciting Conference Championship Round which saw both games go to overtime, we have an intriguing Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and the Rams. Will the battle-tested Patriots be taking home yet another Lombardi trophy or will the upstart Rams be able to win their first championship since 2000? An explosive Los Angeles offense figures to give the Pats all they can handle on Sunday. While the stacking options are limited with just two teams in play, I will run through my thoughts for stack options for anyone interested in playing in the single-game slate.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Super Bowl DFS stacks will be listed below, sorted by team and then personal preference. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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New England Super Bowl DFS Stacks
New England QB Tom Brady and WR Julian Edelman
For his ninth Super Bowl appearance, Tom Brady will take on a Rams defense that can bring a fearsome pass rush, led by Aaron Donald. Brady has shown some signs of his age this season, showing less ceiling games and operating more as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 floor play in fantasy. Making matters worse, Los Angeles was tough against the pass in the regular season, ranking ninth in DVOA. The Patriots would surely love to deploy a run-heavy offensive approach, similar to what they did against the Chiefs in the Conference Championship round when they ran the ball 48 times out of a whopping 94 offensive plays. Provided the defense can prevent Los Angeles from building a big lead, Brady's outlook doesn't look particularly appetizing from a fantasy perspective. If forced to play a quarterback this weekend, I would opt for Jared Goff. The Patriots are 2.5-point favorites in this game but the Rams are a stronger team at most positions so the contrarian approach would be to hope Los Angeles builds an early lead and forces the Patriots to pass often. That will be the tournament approach I will be taking for this game.
Look for Julian Edelman to be Brady's favorite target in the Super Bowl. The veteran wideout has caught 16 of 23 targets for 247 yards in his two playoff games this postseason. He will mostly do battle against slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is infamous for his uncalled pass interference call against the Saints two weeks ago. Despite the attention for that unfortunate play, Robey-Coleman has been solid this season, earning an 81.3 grade from Pro Football Focus. While Robey-Coleman has been effective in coverage this season, the chemistry between Brady and Edelman is too strong to shy away from the pairing here. If the Patriots fall behind on the scoreboard and are forced to go pass-heavy, Edelman could have a huge game.
New England QB Tom Brady and RB James White
White's Super Bowl heroics from two seasons ago aside, the pass-catching specialist can be projected to be heavily used in the short passing game. White has drawn 23 targets over the two playoff games this postseason, tied with Julian Edelman for the team lead. White would stand to see a huge opportunity if New England is forced to play catchup on the scoreboard. While many fantasy owners will gravitate toward the five touchdowns in two playoff games scored by Sony Michel, White could wind up as a sneaky play (if that is even possible on a two-team slate).
New England QB Tom Brady and WR Phillip Dorsett
I like deep threat Phillip Dorsett as an under the radar GPP play this weekend. While many will roster Rob Gronkowski due to his solid game against the Chiefs and the general lack of options on a two-team slate, Dorsett is worth considering instead. While most of the Rams' defensive attention on passing plays will be on Edelman, Gronk, and James White, Dorsett could go overlooked. The speedy wideout figures to see primary coverage from Marcus Peters, who has been beatable deep over his career. Peters earned just a 58.1 grade from PFF in the regular season.
Los Angeles Super Bowl DFS Stacks
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and WR Robert Woods
Jared Goff will make his first Super Bowl appearance in just the third year of his pro career. While there is some concern that he could be jittery for the big game, Goff has the edge over Brady when it comes to surrounding cast. New England's defense likes to scheme to take away the opponent's top option but the Rams are so deep on offense that someone is bound to go off for a big outing. That being said, Goff hasn't had a huge game yet in the playoffs, which gives some cause for concern as Los Angeles has been skewing more run-heavy of late. The Patriots represent an average matchup for quarterbacks as they ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA and allowed the 18th-most fantasy points per game during the regular season.
Robert Woods doesn't have quite the big-play upside that teammate Brandin Cooks brings to the table but he is steady and heavily-used within the Rams' scheme. The team leader in playoff targets with 19, Woods could benefit from New England's defensive tendencies. The Patriots generally try to limit big plays and negate the opposition's No. 1 option on offense. That would lead me to expect them to pay much more attention to Cooks then they do to Woods. Woods also runs the majority of the routes from the slot, meaning he will mostly avoid coverage from Stephon Gilmore, who was one of PFF's top-rated coverage corners during the regular season. I would expect Woods to lead his team in receiving in the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley
Impossible to imagine two months ago, Gurley has almost become a forgotten man on the LA offense. A late-season knee injury that may be worse than the team has been letting on is the primary culprit, but either way, this isn't the Todd Gurley that fantasy owners have become accustomed to seeing. He may have hit a new low in the Conference Championships as he gained just 13 total yards on five touches while Carolina castoff C.J. Anderson led the backfield. While it is very possible that could happen again in the Super Bowl, Gurley will have had two full weeks to rest his knee. He remains infinitely more talented than Anderson and you won't want to be without him in lineups if he turns in a vintage Gurley performance in the big game. Gurley's ability in the passing game makes him an interesting stacking partner with Goff.
Los Angeles QB Jared Goff and TE Tyler Higbee
For the final stack, I will dig deep and recommend tight end Tyler Higbee. Most DFS players don't bother much with Higbee and Gerald Everett because they aren't usually a major part of the passing attack and they tend to cannibalize each other. That being said, there's some reason for optimism when it comes to Higbee in the Super Bowl. He has out-targeted and outproduced Everett in the two playoff games, seven targets (six receptions) to two (one). He should go mostly overlooked in Super Bowl DFS contests and would be a huge advantage in lineups if he has a big game.
