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Four teams, two games, one champion in each conference; it’s Conference Championship Weekend. With only four teams to choose from, and pricing tight, you’re going to have to scratch and claw to build a lineup this weekend. If you create a lineup that you’re comfortable with, you’re either delusional, you own a crystal ball, or you’re a liar. There is simply no way to build a lineup of superstar-caliber players. You will have to have multiple spots with players whose range of outcomes is far wider than you’d normally be comfortable with.
More than any other week of the season, a little bit of luck is going to have to come your way to rise to the top of tournament leaderboards. I’m going to treat this weekend more like a showdown slate rather than a traditional week. If we know we are going to have to find uncomfortable value to fill out a lineup, I’m going to make sure that the value comes in the form of a player that’s going to come in at an ownership of 15% or less. I will have one of those players, if not two, in every lineup I build.
I’m super excited for the Conference Championship Round of the playoffs, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please make sure to check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers - $6400)
With only four quarterbacks to choose from this weekend, we will most likely see ownership spread out fairly evenly through all four. If I had to take a guess I’d say Lamar Jackson will be the most popular play, with Purdy and Mahomes at a similar ownership level, and then Jared Goff bringing up the rear. Normally, I’d say that this presents a great opportunity to stack the Lions but if there’s any team that could fall flat on their faces this weekend it’s the team whose quarterback has massive home/road splits.
Brock Purdy has the best weapons in the league, and he’s a value at just $6,400. I’m surprised that Patrick Mahomes is more expensive, but that’s what name recognition gets you. San Francisco has the highest team total on the slate by over five points, so to get Purdy at this price is a steal. Detroit struggles on the back end, and that will be music to Brock Purdy’s ears. He is far better at home, throwing for 65 more yards and scoring three more fantasy points per game at home. Purdy is even more attractive of an option for me if Deebo Samuel is out because we can use guys like Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Chris Conley to get a little different with our lineup.
2. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens - $7700)
3. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions - $6400)
4. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs - $6900)
Quick Thoughts: My quarterback distribution will look like 40% Purdy, 30% Lamar, 15% Goff, and 15% Mahomes, who I think is just too expensive in relation to the prices of all the other quarterbacks. For the most part, I will not be using this position to differentiate my lineups. While I think Mahomes is likely to outscore Goff, the price difference gives Goff a slight edge. The weather is also expected to be much nicer in San Francisco and with only two games to choose from, and all else being equal, I’m going to lean towards the better weather.
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DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Running Backs
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions - $6400)
2. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers - $9000)
3. Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs - $6500)
Others in consideration: Justice Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dalvin Cook
Quick Thoughts: Realistically, Christian McCaffrey is the only running back that you’re going to feel comfortable putting into your lineup…if you were to take price out of the equation. Unfortunately, we can’t do that and McCaffrey may be too expensive to build around. Jahmyr Gibbs has a similar if reduced, role to McCaffrey. He gets low double-digit carries with three to four targets every week. He’s getting used near the goalline frequently, and he can break a long run. Outside of CMC, Gibbs is the most likely running back to break this slate. With the Lions being strongest against the run, a CMC fade looks a little less scary, and when you add in the $2,600 you’ll save with Gibbs, he’s looking like the best click at the position this weekend.
I’m fading Gus Edwards and David Montgomery for the most part, as I don’t think the games will script in their favor. Instead, I’m going to use this position to try to get a little different and catch lightning in a bottle. Justin Hill is quite involved in the Ravens offense, Dalvin Cook looked good in relief last week when Gus Edwards went down, and Clyde Edwards-Helare is the primary backup for Pacheco and gets enough snaps that he could fall into the end zone.
This is about to be a Jahmyr Gibbs legacy game isn't it? pic.twitter.com/uizYkgI63o
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) January 25, 2024
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers - $6900)
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions - $7900)
3. Nelson Agholor (Baltimore Ravens - $3800)
Others in consideration: Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Jauan Jennings, Zay Flowers, Josh Reynolds
Value Punts: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jameson Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, Kalif Raymond, Kadarius Toney
Quick Thoughts: The wide receiver position is UGLY this weekend. There are exactly two players you can feel good about; Aiyuk and the Sun God. Other than that, it’s a total crapshoot. If you fade CMC at the running back position, and you’re willing to punt your second running back and third wide receiver, then you should have no problem fitting both Aiyuk and St. Brown into your lineup. The two could see a combined 20 targets, especially if Deebo Samuel is out. Nelson Agholor may seem like a funny name to have in a top three ranking, but as I started earlier, we have to get different with our lineups and Agholor is currently where I’m making my stand. He’s got a wide range of outcomes, but does have four or more targets in four of his last six games and he has a nose for the end zone. It spoke volumes to me last weekend when Agholor was the line wide receiver on the field for Baltimore when they were inside the five-yard line; the spot from where he scored his touchdown. For the year he has eight games where he’s scored eight or more DraftKings points, and on a slate like this, that would be the key to jumping the field if he comes in at a low enough ownership.
The wide receiver position is the one where I will be getting the most different. A guy like Ray-Ray McCloud could see one target all game, but if it’s a 30-yard touchdown that’s 10 vital DraftKings points at a rock-bottom price. My pool for value punts has no players you’ll enjoy clicking, but who should see at least one target to give you that shot to make a run at a tournament win.
Nelson Agholor appreciation thread 😈 pic.twitter.com/1FxPtx3G5K
— Allison Waite (@nosilla38) January 22, 2024
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens - $5000)
2. George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers - $5300)
3. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs - $6600)
Others in consideration: Sam LaPorta, Isaiah Likely
Value Punts: Zach Ertz, Noah Gray, Anthony Firkser (if Ertz is inactive)
Quick Thoughts: This is easily the most loaded position of the weekend. Every team has a stud tight end, and just about every team (sorry, 49ers) has a value play or two worth mentioning. Mark Andrews is the highest ranked for me because of his price, and if he’s fully healthy he’s a steal at $5,000. The Ravens don’t have many people who will threaten him for targets, and you know that Lamar will look for him in the red zone. I expect Travis Kelce to be the most popular tight end, so we can get a little different by using George Kittle instead. Kittle has looked good recently, with Deebo out or hurting, he should be more of a focal point of the offense. Don’t discount Isiah Likely if Andrews returns; he’s just too good to keep on the bench given the lack of talent at the wide receiver position for the Ravens.
On the value end, I think it’s nuts that Noah Gray is minimum priced. He’s seen three or more targets in four of the last five games, which should put him at a price point of at least $2,800. He’s a “safer” option than any of the $3,000 wide receivers, making him a strong option for the flex if you’re looking to punt. Zach Ertz should get some targets if he’s active. The Lions don’t go very deep at wide receiver, and they can run two tight end sets with LaPorta and Ertz. If he gets three catches, he’s going to be worth your while as a $2,800 flex option. I love the idea of using one of these two value tight end options as your flex rather than one of the cheapie wide receivers.
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. San Francisco 49ers - $3300
2. Baltimore Ravens - $3200
3. Kansas City Chiefs - $2900
4. Detroit Lions - $2600
Quick Thoughts: Use the most expensive defense that fits your build. I would not waste one dollar trying to spend up for a more expensive defense. If you have to use the Lions, so be it.
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