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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 14 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons and Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders.
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Panthers @ Falcons
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Matt Ryan over 286.5 passing yards and Kyle Allen over 258.5 passing yards.
The total in this game is the second-highest on the board at 47. The last time these two teams met, the Falcons drubbed the Panthers 29-3, but both quarterbacks topped the 300 passing yard mark. Ryan has gone over the 300-yard mark eight times this season and Kyle Allen has eclipsed his prop total in three of the Panther's previous four games. Both defenses should also help these quarterbacks get over the total as well.
The Panthers Defense has been somewhat generous to the quarterback position this season by allowing over 250 passing yards per game. The Falcons have also struggled to run the ball with any consistency this season and have defaulted to the pass as noted by Matt Ryan's collection of 300-yard passing games. The Falcons should get Julio Jones back this week, giving Ryan all of his arsenal to choose from.
The Falcons have been even more generous vs. quarterbacks this season as they have allowed nearly 270 passing yards per game. The Panthers find themselves as underdogs in this game and will likely be forced to throw more often. In their previous matchup with Atlanta, Allen was forced to throw the ball 50 times and it resulted in him passing for 325 yards, which was his highest total of the season. I think this game has a similar script and Allen can safely eclipse his prop.
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Panthers @ Falcons
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Calvin Ridley over 61.5 fantasy points.
I will go right back to this game for a fantasy challenge, especially given the higher total that comes along with it. Both of these teams allow a lot of points to wide receivers and this should allow us to hit the 61.5 when paired with Christian McCaffrey.
The Panthers allow wide receivers to average 22.6 points per game, which ranks 15th-worst in the league. They would rank lower, but they have not allowed many receiving touchdowns on the season. They have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and second-most receptions to wide receivers, though. In their initial meeting, Ridley was able to put up eight receptions for 143 receiving yards and a touchdown. This performance was good for over 28 fantasy points on MKF. He should have another successful day this coming Sunday.
The Falcons have also allowed wide receivers to put up solid fantasy points this season. They allow an average of 25.1 fantasy points per game to the position, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. This is due in large part to the fact that they allow an average of 181.7 receiving yards per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. They have also allowed 14 receiving touchdowns, which ranks ninth-worst in the league. In their last meeting, Moore put up eight receptions for 95 yards. This was good for over 17 fantasy points on MKF, and I expect similar results this week as he averages nearly 10 targets per game in this offense.
The Falcons have been better vs. the run, however, Christian McCaffrey is still a solid play on this card. In their last meeting, McCaffrey was able to rush the ball 14 times for 70 yards and also hauled in 11 receptions for 121 yards. This production came in a blowout where the Falcons won 29-3, so it should come as no surprise that McCaffrey was heavily targeted in the passing game. The Panthers are three-point underdogs this week and should be forced to throw the ball a bit more, which means McCaffrey will likely be heavily involved in the passing game again and rack up some PPR points.
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Titans @ Raiders
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Derek Carr over 254.5 passing yards and Ryan Tannehill over 249.5 passing yards.
This game has the fourth-highest total on the board with 46.5 and I expect quite a bit of passing from both sides. Carr has eclipsed his total in four of the Raider's previous seven games and Tannehill has eclipsed his total in two of his last four and three of his last six contests. Both of these defenses also struggle vs. the pass, which should help these quarterbacks get over the total.
The Raiders are rankled seventh-worst in the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game with 275.6. They also are strong against the run where they only allow running backs to rush for an average of 85.25 yards per game, which ranks 12th in the league. This means that the Titans will likely have to come out with a more pass friendly gameplan to move the ball effectively.
The Titans also struggle against the pass as they have allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of 277.25 yards per game, which ranks sixth-worst in the league. Similar to the Raiders, the Titans are also solid vs. the running back position. They allow running backs to average 85.3 yards on the ground, which ranks 13th in the league just behind the Raiders. Again, this type of defense lends a hand to the pass and I expect the Raiders to come out with a more pass friendly gameplan, especially if they struggle to get Josh Jacobs going on the ground early. The Raiders are also underdogs in this game, which could lead to extra pass attempts late in the game.
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