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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for the Divisional Round games of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in each of the four playoff games this weekend.
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Vikings @ 49ers
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs less than 63.5 receiving yards and Deebo Samuel more than 3.5 receptions.
This game has the lowest total on the board at 44 and figures to pit two teams against each other that will want to run the ball to keep it away from the other team.
Stefon Diggs less than 63.5 seems like a fairly safe bet here. The 49ers are finally getting healthy at the right time and will look to shut Diggs down on the outside. Richard Sherman will likely draw him and while Sherman is on record stating how solid of a receiver Diggs is, I think he will manage to lock him down much the way Marshon Lattimore did last week in New Orleans when he finished with two receptions for 19 yards. Diggs has also only managed to go over this total twice in his last five games and those were against the lowly Lions and the Chargers in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
The 49ers will look to move the ball on the ground with their stable of running backs, but they should also have plenty of opportunities to move the ball through the air on this Vikings Defense. The Vikings have allowed 163 yards per game to wide receivers over their previous four games and have allowed an average of 14.5 receptions per game over that same timeframe. Deebo Samuel has been a favorite target of Jimmy Garoppolo as he has caught at least four passes in three of his past four contests. I think Samuel will be the focal point behind George Kittle this week and will make it over the prop total.
UPDATE: I have seen this Diggs prop mixed with Raheem Mostert more or less than 57.5 rushing yards. If this is what you up seeing, I prefer the over on Mostert. The 49ers are going to come out looking to enforce their will on the Vikings by running the ball and Mostert should take the lead duties here. He has over 75 rushing yards per game over his previous five games and the Vikings haven't been great against the run recently. They are currently allowing 108 rushing yards per game to backs over their previous four games.
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Titans @ Ravens
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Ryan Tannehill less than 215.5 passing yards and Lamar Jackson less than 200.5 passing yards.
The total in this game is 46.5, which currently stands as the third-highest total on the board. Both of these teams are capable of putting up points, but I expect a conservative game style to be on display for both teams as each looks to pound the ball on the ground.
Ryan Tannehill was shut down by the Patriots passing defense last week to the tune of completing eight of 15 passes for a total of 72 passing yards. They still managed to win the game despite this performance because they were able to hand the rock to Derrick Henry 34 times for 182 rushing yards. The Ravens have a stout passing defense much like the Patriots and have allowed 158 passing yards per game over their previous three games. While they have also been strong against the run, they have allowed backs to perform slightly better by giving up 228 rushing yards to the position over the same three games. Tennessee is going to want to give Henry the ball as much as possible to slow the game down and run the clock. Keep an eye on Tannehill's total also as it has had some fluctuation over the course of the week.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are also going to want to come out running the ball. After all, they led the league in rushing yards with 206 yards per game. Tennessee has allowed over 100 rushing yards per game, but has not seen a rushing attack quite like this one. Jackson will likely do much of his damage on the ground as he rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Although it should be noted that Tennessee has allowed 227.5 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, those games were not played against teams that look to run the ball as much as Baltimore. In fact, they came against some more pass-heavy offenses like the Patriots and Saints. Lamar Jackson has also had six games of under 200 yards passing on the season, so this prop is more than reasonable. The weather could also play a factor here as rain and wind are expected late.
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Texans @ Chiefs
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes more than 310.5 passing yards and Deshaun Watson more than 250.5 passing yards
I am going to stick with the more or less contest again in this game because I like the prop totals we are getting here. The total in this game is the highest on the board at 51 and should feature plenty of passing from both teams.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards seven times this season in what amounted to 14 games played. He goes up against one of the worst secondaries in the league this week in Houston. They have allowed 264 passing yards per game over their previous four games. They also just allowed Josh Allen to put up 264 passing yards on them last week, which was his second-highest output of the year. While Houston has also struggled against the run by allowing 484 rushing yards to running backs over the previous four weeks, Kansas City has also struggled to run the ball this season as they rank 23rd in the league in total rushing yards. Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to come out attacking through the air and he should be able to hit this total.
Watson goes up against a Kansas City defense that has greatly improved against the pass this season, but he should still be able to eclipse this total for a few reasons. First, Kansas City should move the ball with ease on Houston's defense, which will force the Texans to pass to keep up. Kansas City currently sits as a 9.5 point favorite and has been favored by as much as 10, so the point spread tends to back this scenario. Watson has also thrown for over 250 passing yards nine times this season, and he most recently did it vs. the Bills, which have the fourth-best pass defense in terms of passing yards allowed in the league. Finally, Will Fuller is expected back, which gives Watson an extra weapon and greatly improves his chances of eclipsing the total.
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Seahawks @ Packers
Rapid Fire Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Russell Wilson +1.5 passing yards vs. Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Lockett +12.5 receiving yards vs. Devante Adams.
I want to start by saying it was very difficult to find a prop I felt great about playing in this game. The total in this game is 47 so some scoring is going to occur, it just was not easy for me to pinpoint where it is going to come from. That being said, I do think this prop is a pretty solid one.
Wilson and the Seahawks are four-point underdogs, which would lend their hand to more passing in this game. They also have very little running game to speak of since they recently lost Chris Carson, which also lends to them passing more. This was the case last week when Wilson completed 18 of 30 attempts for 325 passing yards in Philadelphia.
Aaron Rodgers has had somewhat of a down season as he has only thrown for 300 yards or more once since Week 8. He also has the benefit of being able to hand the ball to Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. This should be especially helpful this week as the Seahawks have allowed 434 rushing yards to running backs over their previous four weeks. This averages out to 108.5 yards a game and should spell great things for the Packer running game. This is also why I lean on Tyler Lockett +12.5 yards over Adams. Adams is without a doubt the better receiver here, but given the point spread and likelihood of Seattle being forced to throw the ball for lack of running options, I like the Lockett play. Lockett is a burner and capable of making a big play at any time to help rack of these yards. Also, D.K. Metcalf will probably be the focal point of the Packers' secondary given his recent performance in Philadelphia a week ago.
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