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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for November 6th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The Kansas City Chiefs, leading the AFC West with a 6-4 record, go into Mexico City to face the 4-6 Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night. Given the records, the Chargers are the more desperate team but the more desperate team doesn’t always win.
Patrick Mahomes has returned from injury and the Chiefs have a terrifying offense with their star quarterback in the game. At the same time, this is a team that has lost four of the past six games so they are a little bit vulnerable.
The Chargers haven’t been quite as good but have lost three games by a field goal or less and three more by a touchdown or less so this team might be better than their record indicates. They had better hope so if they are going to step to the Chiefs.
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KANSAS CITY-L.A. CHARGERS
OVER/UNDERS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 339.5 PASSING YARDS – The Chiefs superstar returned to action with 446 passing yards at Tennessee last week and it was the fourth time in eight games that Mahomes threw for at least 340 yards in a game and yet he’s facing a Chargers team that allows just 207.8 passing yards per game, the fourth-lowest average in the league. There doesn’t seem to be a number that is unreasonable for Mahomes to cover but expecting him to go for at least 340 yards is a high bar.
Philip Rivers UNDER 299.5 PASSING YARDS – The veteran Chargers quarterback is averaging 281.6 passing yards per game and the Chiefs are surrendering 221.4 passing yards per game so this tilts towards the under. There’s also the matter of the Chargers having a capable ground attack that might be the better way to attach the Chiefs Defense.
Tyreek Hill OVER 19.5 FANTASY POINTS – A big-play threat who is averaging 90.5 receiving yards per game, with 6.2 receptions per game while producing five touchdowns in his past five games. Even if taking the under on Mahomes’ yardage total, it’s still reasonable to see Hill go for 100 yards and a score with a handful of catches, so that’s the way we’re going to play this one.
Keenan Allen UNDER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – The Chargers offense has kind of left Allen on the sidelines lately. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week Three and last week’s eight catches for 68 yards against Oakland counted as Allen’s most productive game since Week Three. The talent is there for him to cover this number but that talent has been there for the past two months and the numbers just haven’t been there.
Melvin Gordon OVER 14.5 FANTASY POINTS – It took some time for Gordon to get up to speed after a prolonged and failed holdout but he’s hit his stride in recent weeks, putting up 242 yards and three touchdowns on 46 touches in the past two games. If he gets those touches he can still be a productive performer against the Chiefs.
RAPID FIRE
Tyreek Hill +0.5 receptions vs. Keenan Allen – Hill has a much higher ceiling than Allen but Hill is a deep threat so he’s not necessarily a high-percentage receiver. Even with Allen averaging nine targets per game over the past four games, he’s averaging a relatively modest 5.5 receptions per game in those four games. Hill was targeted an obscene 19 times last week and in the past four he’s averaging 6.5 receptions per game. That’s enough to like Hill as the underdog in this particular matchup.
Travis Kelce -12.5 receiving yards vs. Hunter Henry – Kelce’s consistency is impressive. He is averaging 74.1 receiving yards per game for the season and has put up at least 55 yards in nine of 10 games. He shows up week in and week out. Henry is a terrific player in his own right, averaging 69.7 receiving yards per game this season but has some ups and downs in the half dozen games in which he has appeared, with three games with 80 yards plus and three games with 60 yards or fewer.
