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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for September 8th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Following a dud of a Thursday night game, the NFL offers up a 13-game Week One slate for Sunday, with two more games coming on Monday night.
The opening week brings a bunch of fascinating opportunities when playing props. There are so many players in different situations, and the uncertainty is what presents the chance to secure value.
Are the Browns going to live up the hype? Is Miami going to be as awful as expected? Will contenders like the Eagles and Chiefs be ready to roll right from the start?
Then there’s Jimmy Garoppolo returning from injury for San Francisco, rookie Kyler Murray stepping into the Cardinals’ lineup and Jacoby Brissett is suddenly starting at quarterback for Indianapolis after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement.
After looking through all the matchups, here are a bunch of angles to consider for the first Sunday of the NFL season.
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TENNESSEE-CLEVELAND
OVER/UNDERS
Baker Mayfield OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – As a rookie, Mayfield threw for more than 270 yards in three of seven home games and that was before getting Odell Beckham Jr. as a new primary target in the offseason. The Titans have a strong pass defense but the Browns are expecting big things this year and a home game to open up should be an opportunity for Mayfield to put up some numbers.
BALTIMORE-MIAMI
OVER/UNDERS
Kenyan Drake OVER 10.5 FANTASY POINTS – There isn’t a lot to like about the Miami offense but one potential value spot is Drake, who should be the focal point of their offense. That point total is achievable, even if the Dolphins get stomped.
RAPID FIRE
Ryan Fitzpatrick -54.5 passing yards vs. Lamar Jackson – Fitzmagic averaged a league-leading 9.6 yards per pass attempt last season, on his way to averaging nearly 296 passing yards per game. Jackson has not yet shown that he is an effective passer, averaging a little over 159 passing yards in his seven starts as a rookie. Add in the fact that the Dolphins will probably be losing for much of the game, Fitzpatrick should have more incentive to throw the ball.
BALTIMORE-N.Y. JETS
OVER/UNDERS
Josh Allen OVER 196.5 PASSING YARDS – In his 11 starts as a rookie, Allen did show some flashes of talent, averaging nearly 182 yards per game but he was over 200 in each of his last five starts. Allen sets himself apart with his ability to run as well as pass but expecting 200-plus passing yards is still a reasonable objective.
WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA
OVER/UNDERS
Carson Wentz OVER 278.5 PASSING YARDS – Wentz is guiding an Eagles team that looks like it should be very strong and they’re at home against a Washington team that looks like it could be on of the league’s worst. Mix in Wentz averaging 279.5 passing yards per game last season and the lean has to be towards the over.
KANSAS CITY-JACKSONVILLE
OVER/UNDERS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 308.5 PASSING YARDS – Last year’s Offensive Player of the Year can light up the scoreboard in any game but, including playoffs, he threw for 309 or more in eight of 18 games. That’s a big number and, as great as the Chiefs could be, it’s asking a lot for Mahomes to cover it.
Nick Foles OVER 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Making his first start for the Jaguars, Foles averaged nearly 283 passing yards per game in his first starts for the Eagles last season. The Jaguars aren’t the Eagles, obviously, but they also may need to throw the ball in order to keep pace with the Chiefs.
L.A. RAMS-CAROLINA
OVER/UNDERS
Jared Goff UNDER 276.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams looked like a juggernaut at times last season but Goff faded late in the season, throwing for at least 277 yards in just two of his last eight games (including the playoffs).
RAPID FIRE
Christian McCaffrey -0.5 receptions vs. Robert Woods – It’s tough to keep pace with McCaffrey, who had 106 catches last season, and that still holds true for Woods, who had a career-high 96 catches last season.
ATLANTA-MINNESOTA
RECEPTION COLLECTION
Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs OVER 19.5 CATCHES – Two teams that like to throw the ball and have receivers capable of putting up monster numbers. The main issue could be the health of Diggs, who is nursing a hamstring injury and if he’s not okay to play then this doesn’t work but it’s easy enough to see an outcome in which this trio combines for 20 receptions.
CINCINNATI-SEATTLE
RAPID FIRE
Tyler Lockett -14.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Boyd – Boyd had more receiving yards than Lockett last season but the Bengals are in a tough spot right now, with offensive line problems and A.J. Green hurt. That could make Boyd the featured offensive performer but it looks like a difficult matchup this week at Seattle, so Lockett seems like the better option.
INDIANAPOLIS-L.A. CHARGERS
OVER/UNDERS
Jacoby Brissett OVER 230.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though this isn’t a lofty number, Brissett has only thrown for more than 230 yards four times in 17 career starts but he’s got a strong offensive line and a supporting cast that should be able to maintain a quality level of production, even if it’s not at the level that was expected under Andrew Luck.
Austin Ekeler UNDER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – While Melvin Gordon hopes for a new contract, Ekeler seems like the best option in the Chargers backfield. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season and it’s certainly possible that he can fill in a lot of the void created by Gordon’s absence. Still, it’s asking a lot for him to produce 17 fantasy points.
SAN FRANCISCO-TAMPA BAY
OVER/UNDERS
Jameis Winston OVER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – In 11 starts last season, Winston threw for at least 290 yards five times but expectations are for an even more explosive passing game for the Bucs under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard at his disposal, Winston has a chance to air it out this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – In eight starts with the 49ers, Garoppolo has averaged 282.5 passing yards per game, so this seems to be right in the ballpark, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury and has been held under 280 yards in four of his last five starts.
DETROIT-ARIZONA
RAPID FIRE
Matthew Stafford -15.5 passing yards vs. Kyler Murray – While virtually the rest of the football world saw their passing numbers go up last season, Stafford averaged 41.8 fewer passing yards per game than what he passed for in 2017 and yet he still has weapons in the passing game and seems to be the safer pick when matched against Murray, the No. 1 overall pick making his first start behind a questionable Cardinals offensive line.
N.Y. GIANTS-DALLAS
OVER/UNDERS
Amari Cooper OVER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – With running back Ezekiel Elliott getting his contract done at the eleventh hour, the Cowboys may not be at full strength in the running game, so look for Cooper to play a big role. He rejuventated his career after joining the Cowboys last season, averaging 80.6 receiving yards per game and scoring six touchdowns in nine games with Dallas.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 24.5 FANTASY POINTS – It’s entirely possible that Barkley is the best running back in the game, after accumulating 2028 yards from scrimmage along with 15 touchdowns as a rookie, but he doesn’t have a ton of support in that Giants lineup; at least not enough to bank on 25 fantasy points against a Cowboys Defense that was strong against the run in 2018.
PITTSBURGH-NEW ENGLAND
OVER/UNDERS
Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 286.5 PASSING YARDS – Even if the Steelers expect JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Vance McDonald to pick up the slack left by Antonio Brown’s departure, they still have a difficult matchup, taking on the defending-champion Patriots in New England.
Tom Brady UNDER 281.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though his production dipped a bit last season, Brady still averaged 272.2 passing yards per game. It’s possible that the passing attack gets a jolt from Josh Gordon but Brady also loses the security blanket of retired tight end Rob Gronkowski. For that reason, it’s also possible that the Patriots are more inclined to churn out yards on the ground and that could limit Brady’s passing upside in Week One.
