Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS Prop Picks for 9/8/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


Following a dud of a Thursday night game, the NFL offers up a 13-game Week One slate for Sunday, with two more games coming on Monday night.

The opening week brings a bunch of fascinating opportunities when playing props. There are so many players in different situations, and the uncertainty is what presents the chance to secure value.

Are the Browns going to live up the hype? Is Miami going to be as awful as expected? Will contenders like the Eagles and Chiefs be ready to roll right from the start?

Then there’s Jimmy Garoppolo returning from injury for San Francisco, rookie Kyler Murray stepping into the Cardinals’ lineup and Jacoby Brissett is suddenly starting at quarterback for Indianapolis after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement.

After looking through all the matchups, here are a bunch of angles to consider for the first Sunday of the NFL season.

Editor's Note: Here's some really nice special offers for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends:

  1. New Player Bonus: All new players can receive a matched signup bonus up to $500.
  2. TNF Guarantee:  All MKF players who make a deposit into their account get their first $5 contest for Thursday Night Football guaranteed! Put simply, if they do not win, MKF will refund your loss (up to $5) in MKF Dollars.
  3. Reload Bonus: All MKF players can make a reload deposit with Promo Code 'NFL19' for a 50% matched bonus up to $500. This offer expires on Sunday 11:59 PM EST.

 

TENNESSEE-CLEVELAND

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Baker Mayfield OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – As a rookie, Mayfield threw for more than 270 yards in three of seven home games and that was before getting Odell Beckham Jr. as a new primary target in the offseason. The Titans have a strong pass defense but the Browns are expecting big things this year and a home game to open up should be an opportunity for Mayfield to put up some numbers.

 

BALTIMORE-MIAMI

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Kenyan Drake OVER 10.5 FANTASY POINTS – There isn’t a lot to like about the Miami offense but one potential value spot is Drake, who should be the focal point of their offense. That point total is achievable, even if the Dolphins get stomped.

RAPID FIRE

Ryan Fitzpatrick -54.5 passing yards vs. Lamar Jackson – Fitzmagic averaged a league-leading 9.6 yards per pass attempt last season, on his way to averaging nearly 296 passing yards per game. Jackson has not yet shown that he is an effective passer, averaging a little over 159 passing yards in his seven starts as a rookie. Add in the fact that the Dolphins will probably be losing for much of the game, Fitzpatrick should have more incentive to throw the ball.

 

BALTIMORE-N.Y. JETS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Josh Allen OVER 196.5 PASSING YARDS – In his 11 starts as a rookie, Allen did show some flashes of talent, averaging nearly 182 yards per game but he was over 200 in each of his last five starts. Allen sets himself apart with his ability to run as well as pass but expecting 200-plus passing yards is still a reasonable objective.

 

WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Carson Wentz OVER 278.5 PASSING YARDS – Wentz is guiding an Eagles team that looks like it should be very strong and they’re at home against a Washington team that looks like it could be on of the league’s worst. Mix in Wentz averaging 279.5 passing yards per game last season and the lean has to be towards the over.

 

KANSAS CITY-JACKSONVILLE

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 308.5 PASSING YARDS – Last year’s Offensive Player of the Year can light up the scoreboard in any game but, including playoffs, he threw for 309 or more in eight of 18 games. That’s a big number and, as great as the Chiefs could be, it’s asking a lot for Mahomes to cover it.

Nick Foles OVER 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Making his first start for the Jaguars, Foles averaged nearly 283 passing yards per game in his first starts for the Eagles last season. The Jaguars aren’t the Eagles, obviously, but they also may need to throw the ball in order to keep pace with the Chiefs.

 

L.A. RAMS-CAROLINA

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jared Goff UNDER 276.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams looked like a juggernaut at times last season but Goff faded late in the season, throwing for at least 277 yards in just two of his last eight games (including the playoffs).

RAPID FIRE

Christian McCaffrey -0.5 receptions vs. Robert Woods – It’s tough to keep pace with McCaffrey, who had 106 catches last season, and that still holds true for Woods, who had a career-high 96 catches last season.

 

ATLANTA-MINNESOTA

View Contest

RECEPTION COLLECTION

Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs OVER 19.5 CATCHES – Two teams that like to throw the ball and have receivers capable of putting up monster numbers. The main issue could be the health of Diggs, who is nursing a hamstring injury and if he’s not okay to play then this doesn’t work but it’s easy enough to see an outcome in which this trio combines for 20 receptions.

 

CINCINNATI-SEATTLE

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Tyler Lockett -14.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Boyd – Boyd had more receiving yards than Lockett last season but the Bengals are in a tough spot right now, with offensive line problems and A.J. Green hurt. That could make Boyd the featured offensive performer but it looks like a difficult matchup this week at Seattle, so Lockett seems like the better option.

 

INDIANAPOLIS-L.A. CHARGERS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jacoby Brissett OVER 230.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though this isn’t a lofty number, Brissett has only thrown for more than 230 yards four times in 17 career starts but he’s got a strong offensive line and a supporting cast that should be able to maintain a quality level of production, even if it’s not at the level that was expected under Andrew Luck.

Austin Ekeler UNDER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – While Melvin Gordon hopes for a new contract, Ekeler seems like the best option in the Chargers backfield. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season and it’s certainly possible that he can fill in a lot of the void created by Gordon’s absence. Still, it’s asking a lot for him to produce 17 fantasy points.

 

SAN FRANCISCO-TAMPA BAY

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jameis Winston OVER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – In 11 starts last season, Winston threw for at least 290 yards five times but expectations are for an even more explosive passing game for the Bucs under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard at his disposal, Winston has a chance to air it out this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – In eight starts with the 49ers, Garoppolo has averaged 282.5 passing yards per game, so this seems to be right in the ballpark, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury and has been held under 280 yards in four of his last five starts.

 

DETROIT-ARIZONA

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Matthew Stafford -15.5 passing yards vs. Kyler Murray – While virtually the rest of the football world saw their passing numbers go up last season, Stafford averaged 41.8 fewer passing yards per game than what he passed for in 2017 and yet he still has weapons in the passing game and seems to be the safer pick when matched against Murray, the No. 1 overall pick making his first start behind a questionable Cardinals offensive line.

 

N.Y. GIANTS-DALLAS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Amari Cooper OVER 16.5 FANTASY POINTS – With running back Ezekiel Elliott getting his contract done at the eleventh hour, the Cowboys may not be at full strength in the running game, so look for Cooper to play a big role. He rejuventated his career after joining the Cowboys last season, averaging 80.6 receiving yards per game and scoring six touchdowns in nine games with Dallas.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 24.5 FANTASY POINTS – It’s entirely possible that Barkley is the best running back in the game, after accumulating 2028 yards from scrimmage along with 15 touchdowns as a rookie, but he doesn’t have a ton of support in that Giants lineup; at least not enough to bank on 25 fantasy points against a Cowboys Defense that was strong against the run in 2018.

 

PITTSBURGH-NEW ENGLAND

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 286.5 PASSING YARDS – Even if the Steelers expect JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Vance McDonald to pick up the slack left by Antonio Brown’s departure, they still have a difficult matchup, taking on the defending-champion Patriots in New England.

Tom Brady UNDER 281.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though his production dipped a bit last season, Brady still averaged 272.2 passing yards per game. It’s possible that the passing attack gets a jolt from Josh Gordon but Brady also loses the security blanket of retired tight end Rob Gronkowski. For that reason, it’s also possible that the Patriots are more inclined to churn out yards on the ground and that could limit Brady’s passing upside in Week One.

 

 

 

More Weekly DFS Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Keenan Allen - Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody on your bench. Disaster Recovery is to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting, and deciding if you should be panicking at all about... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 7) - Targets and Avoids

Another week, more upsets. The Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers all went down knocking out about 15-20 percent of remaining entrants in survivor pools, including myself. The Baltimore and New England wins were never in doubt, but the Redskins and Packers just barely squeaked out wins. If you've made it this far, you've done a job... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Running Back Metrics That Matter - NFL NextGen Stats

It's been a month--a full month!--since the last time we took a look at our beloved running backs. I don't think there is a hotter topic of discussion between pro- and anti-analytics than rushing. The guys fighting for stat-supremacy are all about using the passing game as much as possible while ditching the run; the... Read More


Titanic Disappointment - Will Ryan Tannehill Help Tennessee?

In the midst of being shutout by the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Tennesse Titans coach Mike Vrabel made a move that many casual NFL fans had been expecting for the past few weeks: he decided to give Ryan Tannehill a shot at quarterback instead of Marcus Mariota. While Tannehill wasn't noticeably better on Sunday, throwing... Read More


Warning Signs: Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Jared Goff

This is going to be a special edition of Warning Signs. Usually, we take a look at players from different teams who have disappointed thus far. This week, I am going to focus on a single team full of players to worry about. It is not good to have a team of big stars where... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 6 Outliers

In Week 6, several players exploded in fantasy lineups. There were a few receivers that were above the rest of the pack in Week 6, such as Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin and Tyreek Hill, but there shouldn't be any surprises there as those guys should have been in fantasy lineups. At the quarterback... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 7

The bye week difficulties continue this week with Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay all getting their rest in Week 7. It should be noted, however, that just because a player is currently in their bye week, doesn't mean you should avoid them on the waiver wire. In fact, this is often the easiest way... Read More


Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

All of a sudden, the Chargers look like one of the worst teams in football and the Jets look like a playoff contender. Maybe things won't shake out that way in the end but it goes to show how quickly things change in the "Not For Long" NFL. For that reason, we advise looking at... Read More


The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 7)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More


Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 7 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 6 is done, and we've seen some outstanding games thus far. We've also seen a lot of surprising teams through six weeks. The San Francisco 49ers, after picking in the top 10 for four straight years, are 5-0 with one of the most complete teams in football. As far as kickers go, we're seeing... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Some of you have been rewarded for your meticulous roster planning by receiving excellent production from your running backs. Unfortunately, many of you have been equally prepared when making roster decisions, but have been undermined by injuries, inconsistent usage, or underwhelming performances. If that applies to you, then those unwanted outcomes have forced you to... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

We weren't really surprised by the top-scoring fantasy wide receivers from Week 6. Out of the top-20 receivers, only Jamison Crowder, Auden Tate and Jaron Brown were less than 50% owned. Jaron Brown (0% owned) was only targeted five times but he scored two touchdowns off of those five targets. Auden Tate (23% owned) hauled... Read More