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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for October 17th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
A vintage AFC West matchup sees the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. A couple of weeks ago this would have appeared to be a lopsided game but times have changed.
After winning four straight to open the season, the Chiefs have dropped back-to-back games and are dealing with some injuries.
The Broncos lost four straight to start the season but have won back-to-back games, including a shutout win against Tennessee in Week Six. Can the Broncos keep the Chiefs’ high-octane attack under wraps? That’s the challenge but one that has been met by Kansas City’s opponents recently.
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KANSAS CITY-DENVER
OVER/UNDERS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 317.5 PASSING YARDS – In the first three games of this season, the Kansas City quarterback averaged 398.3 passing yards per game as the Chiefs looked untouchable. In three weeks since, he’s averaging 303.0 passing yards per game and the Chiefs have lost back-to-back games after needing a fourth-quarter comeback to emerge victorious in the fourth game of the season. All of this is to say that the trend, which started at an astronomical level, is coming down to a level where mere mortals exist, and with the Broncos allowing 196.0 passing yards per game, it seems like the under makes the most sense.
Joe Flacco UNDER 245.5 PASSING YARDS – Early in the season, the Broncos turned Flacco loose and he averaged 269 passing yards and 37 passes per game in four straight losses. With wins the past two weeks, the Broncos have been able to use their running game more and limited Flacco to an average of 179.5 passing yards and 24 passes in the past two weeks. If the Broncos fall behind and are forced to throw, Flacco can put up yardage, but it doesn’t seem like the winning strategy, so if Denver can keep the ball on the ground and keep it away from the Chiefs that might open the door to more favorable results.
Phillip Lindsay OVER 15.5 FANTASY POINTS – Although Lindsay shares time in the Denver backfield, he has emerged as a valuable contributor in the past four weeks, averaging 103.0 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown per game. While many of the rushing yards against the Chiefs might be considered empty calories, Kansas City does not have good numbers against the run, allowing 161.3 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. That ought to give Lindsay some room to maneuver.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 23.5 FANTASY POINTS – If Mahomes throws for 300 yards, which should be the baseline, that’s a dozen points. Touchdown passes on MKF count for four points, so if Mahomes throws for 300, it would still require three touchdown passes (or else more passing or rushing yards) for Mahomes to hit the over.
Tyreek Hill UNDER 17.5 FANTASY POINTS – Hill adds a game-breaking element to the Chiefs’ attack and he scored two touchdowns last week but it’s difficult to bank on that kind of scoring on a week to week basis. With doubts about how the Chiefs passing game will fare in Denver, the under is the side to ride.
RAPID FIRE
Tyreek Hill +1.5 receptions vs. Travis Kelce – Although Hill is a higher-risk proposition, it’s also asking quite a bit of Kelce to grab two more passes, particularly when Sammy Watkins is injured so if the Chiefs are going downfield, Hill would figure to get a larger share of the passes.
Courtland Sutton -17.5 receiving yards vs. Emmanuel Sanders – Even though Sanders has a long and distinguished track record, he’s battling a knee injury and has been held to 10 receiving yards or less in three of his past four games. Sutton has been a reliable option for the Broncos, putting up 79.5 receiving yards per game and if he can produce near his average that would require a big jump in production from Sanders.
Phillip Lindsay -17.5 rushing yards vs. Royce Freeman – With the Broncos likely wanting to pound on the ground against the Chiefs, both Lindsay and Freeman should get double-digit carries. So far this season, Lindsay is averaging 18.9 more rushing yards per game, so that warrants a slight lean in his direction.
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