Running Back Matchups to Target for Week 14 (2025) - James Cook III, Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, More

December 6, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 14 of 2025 -- DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Even with Christian McCaffrey on a bye this week, this may be one of the strongest groups of running backs that we have had on the main DFS slate in over a month. Tough decisions will have to be made when building lineups, especially because we really don't have any obvious value at the position due to an injury.

But that's what I am here for! I will drop the usual disclaimer that while total touches and red-zone usage are factors that should always be considered, my goal in this article is to locate the best overall matchups for running backs using some advanced statistics to do so.

The primary focus of this piece is NFL DFS; however, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top four matchups for the main slate of NFL games on Sunday, December 7.

Week 14 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 13 weeks of data. The first column shows the overall offensive rushing attack vs. the opponent, calculated from each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated from each team's "adjusted line yards" created and allowed. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

James Cook III ($7,800 DK, $9,300 FD)

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I wish I had been wrong about Cook last week, but I correctly predicted that he would steamroll the Steelers' run defense, which he did to the tune of 144 yards on 32 carries. Now, he will get a shot at another AFC North opponent, this time at home, and this time the matchup is ... well, about as good as it could get!

James Cook's vision and burst are special. He is able to play above the scheme often when defenses appear to have him hemmed in. pic.twitter.com/aIXGR0j5DV

— Cover 1 (@Cover1) December 1, 2025

The 87.1 matchup rating is one of the highest I have calculated this season. It reflects the Bills' second-rated DVOA run offense going up against the Bengals' 30th-ranked DVOA run defense. While Cincinnati has stopped the bleeding in terms of total rushing yards allowed lately (the last three weeks have been better), it will still have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Yes, it held Derrick Henry to 60 yards rushing last week, but it also allowed a 44-yard reception to him and a rushing touchdown to his backup, Keaton Mitchell. The Ravens got forced off their run game in a negative game script, but the Bills are highly unlikely to make the same mistake.

This game has a massive 53.5-point total, which dwarfs the rest of the games on the slate. The Bills, as 5.5-point favorites, are implied for nearly 30 points this week. Josh Allen is always a threat to steal a rushing touchdown, but Cook is a good bet for at least one TD (-190 FAN) or possibly two (+280 FAN) if we expect Buffalo to crack the end zone four times on Sunday.

Josh Jacobs ($6,800 DK, $8,600 FD)

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

I think this Packers-Bears game is one of the more compelling matchups of the weekend. The Bears have reeled off two impressive wins in a row, beating both Pennsylvania teams the last two weeks, and now have to go through the Packers in Lambeau if they want to make a run at the NFC North crown.

Meanwhile, the Packers had a statement win over Detroit on the road on Thanksgiving Day. The Packers have been a run-first offense pretty much all season, but allowed Jordan Love to be a bit more aggressive in that one. It paid off in a big way as he tossed four touchdown passes.

For full disclosure, I am really going to be invested in the Jordan Love-Christian Watson duo for DFS, as Chicago's secondary plays a lot of man coverage and is vulnerable to the deep ball. However, we shouldn't ignore this spot for Jacobs and the run game, either, considering how effective he's been this season and the possibility that a favorable game script could lead to a big workload.

Chicago has the 27th-ranked run defense on the season. In recent weeks, it has been able to slow the bleeding a bit, but the Packers will certainly test their ability to stop the run early in this one.

Jacobs feels badly underpriced on DraftKings at just $6.8K considering his potential for heavy usage and red-zone carries. I'll be hedging my exposure to the Packers offense this week between the Love-Watson duo and Jacobs, just in case Green Bay reverts to a run-heavy approach and Jacobs has a two-touchdown day at the office.

Chase Brown ($6,700 DK, $7,300 FD)

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

We are back to the Bills-Bengals game again, this time with an underpriced Chase Brown who faces a Bills defense that has bled production to opposing rushing attacks all season. After an abysmal start to the 2025 season, Brown and the Bengals offensive line have really turned things around, as Brown has over 100 scrimmage yards in his last six games.

Brown's heavy usage didn't change at all last week with Joe Burrow back under center and his backup, Samaje Perine, healthy once again. He handled 22 touches against Baltimore and kept the chains moving for the Cincinnati offense in a big upset of the Ravens.

While Burrow and the Bengals will have to pass the ball successfully to hang with Buffalo, they're likely to feed Brown plenty of touches on the ground to try to take advantage of the Bills' weak run defense and control the clock to keep Josh Allen and James Cook III off the field.

Cincy has the second-best DVOA matchup rating, but the offensive line metrics aren't nearly as good. I will say that its run-blocking grade, while still very average overall, has improved greatly over the last month, as it once ranked dead last in that metric. So, what we are hoping for here, if rostering Brown, is continued improvement from his run-blockers and for the Bengals to continue to lean on him in both the rushing and passing games as heavily as they have in recent weeks.

Brown has struggled to get in the end zone this year, but the Bills are allowing the most rushing touchdowns to opposing backs. It might be a situation where we get some positive regression for Brown, who still sports a healthy 60% red-zone carry rate.

Blake Corum ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD)

L.A. Rams at Arizona Cardinals

I am tired of writing up Kyren Williams, and even though he managed to score a touchdown last week against Carolina, he wasn't worth investing in as much as I did on last Sunday's slate. Williams finished with a 13-72-1 line on the day and just 13.2 DK points. He left the game briefly with an injury and continued to see his backup, Corum, eat into his touches.

Since I started writing about the #Rams, one of the most fascinating players I have observed is RB Blake Corum. Such a fun player who could emerge as a key asset down the stretch. pic.twitter.com/qExPCAzcLR

— Jared Feinberg (new account :)) (@Jared_NFLDraft) December 3, 2025

Corum made the most of his seven carries, going for a season-high 81 yards rushing and a touchdown. That was good for 14.1 DK points, and Corum outscored Williams for the first time this year. He's now handled 30% or more of the rushes for the Rams in six straight games as they seem to be making a consistent effort to limit Williams' workload down the stretch.

This matchup for the Rams really pops in the ratings (once again) as they continue to be a top-3 run offense in the NFL and are facing a Cardinals run defense that has dropped down into the bottom third of the league against the run.

This is only a large-field GPP play, but if Corum can keep earning touches with his strong play and the Rams get out in front in this one, perhaps we see Corum leaned on late to milk the clock while the Rams rest Williams (who, remember, got dinged up a bit in last week's loss).

It's a risky play, but one that could really pay off. As I mentioned earlier, there's really not much value available at the running back position this week.

Good luck, y'all!

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