RADIO
Football fans were spoiled by a primetime game in Week 1 in a seemingly lopsided matchup between the Ravens and Raiders. On paper, it looked like the Ravens would run away with the game. What we got instead was a massive game from Darren Waller, clutch plays from Bryan Edwards in the final minute and overtime, and a series of blunders in extra time that led to an improbable Raiders victory. On the surface, a matchup between the Packers and Lions should be a lopsided affair… but could we see another unexpected exciting game again this week?
Both the Lions and Packers head into this game off a loss in Week 1. Green Bay was embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, with Aaron Rodgers throwing two interceptions and the offense failing to score a touchdown. Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams, three early-round fantasy picks, all failed to rack up meaningful stats in a shootout situation. On the flip side, Detroit got down in a hurry against San Francisco but was able to claw back to have a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both finished as top-10 running backs in PPR formats, and T.J. Hockenson was the TE3 in PPR scoring in Week 1.
Below you’ll find a breakdown of the must starts, upside plays, and players you should consider benching heading into Week 2’s Monday night matchup between the Lions and Packers.
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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Game time: Monday, September 20th at 8:15 pm
Game line: Packers -11.0
Over/Under: 48.5
Must Starts
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Fantasy managers didn’t draft Aaron Rodgers to watch him languish on the bench. Despite a rough Week 1, Rodgers is a lock for starting lineups against a Detroit secondary that was bad heading into the season and got worse with a season-ending injury to 2020 first-round pick Jeff Okudah against the 49ers. In two games against Detroit last season, Rodgers threw for 530 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions. Rodgers and the Packers need to make a statement after getting embarrassed against the Saints last week and playing the fantasy defense that gave up 28.9 fantasy points to Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance should do the trick.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Like Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones had a game to forget against the Saints. Jones carried the ball five times for nine yards and added two receptions on two targets for 13 yards. Fantasy managers relying on Jones' role in the Packers offense were sorely disappointed. However, Jones was drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts this year and needs to be started regardless of matchups. The 49ers allowed Elijah Mitchell, a sixth-round rookie, to rush 19 times for 104 yards and a touchdown against their defense last week after Raheem Mostert was injured in the first quarter. Detroit has a strong defensive line, but Jones should get plenty of opportunities to pop in Week 2.
D’Andre Swift (RB, DET)
D’Andre Swift struggled on the ground in Week 1, carrying the ball 11 times for 39 yards. However, he saved the day (especially in PPR leagues) by catching eight of 11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown with the Lions playing catch up against the 49ers. Swift has amazing upside driven by his role as the primary pass-catching back lining up next to a check-down quarterback on a team with an awful defense. Green Bay struggled against Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones Jr. in Week 1, allowing a combined 31 carries for 133 yards and five receptions for 16 yards and a touchdown. Swift will function as the top receiving threat for Jared Goff a lot this season and is a must-start in all formats.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Of the three offensive stars for Green Bay, Davante Adams probably had the most significant impact. Given the lofty standards, he set in 2020 that led to him being a first-round pick, that impact was wildly disappointing. Adams was targeted seven times, catching five passes for 56 yards against the Saints. A strong Saints pass rush combined with a steady diet of Marshon Lattimore made for a rough day for Green Bay’s WR1. Luckily for Adams, he’s going to have a much easier assignment come Monday night. Detroit’s secondary is abysmal and just allowed Deebo Samuel to go off for nine receptions, 189 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1. Adams should be a lock to improve on his paltry numbers against the Saints on Monday.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Robert Tonyan had a forgettable opening game, catching just two of his four targets for eight yards against the Saints. Unfortunately for Tonyan, the Packers got behind in a hurry and were forced to play catch-up for the remainder of the game, which meant Rodgers was taking deep shots to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams. Tonyan always has boom or bust upside given his reliance on touchdowns to get his fantasy points, but he should have chances to make an impact in Week 2 against Detroit. The Lions allowed San Francisco’s tight ends to catch four of his five targets for 78 in Week 1. With Okudah injured, they may opt to take away the deep plays, leaving Tonyan plenty of room to operate underneath and soak up targets. The tight end position is a wasteland outside of the top four players right now, so Tonyan has as much chance to score as any this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Like D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson can be considered one of the best pass catchers on the Lions even though he doesn’t play wide receiver. Hockenson tied Swift for targets (11), receptions (8), and touchdowns (1) in Week 1 and paced Detroit with 90 receiving yards. With Detroit down big early, Goff looked to Hockenson early and often to lead a comeback that almost worked by the end of the game. The third-year tight end should be poised to have another big game against an explosive offense that struggled to stop tight ends in Week 1. The combination of Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson combined for six receptions on 10 targets for 26 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Hockenson is a weekly must-start as one of the top two offenses on an offense that has no choice but to pass the ball.
Consider Sitting
Tyrell Williams (WR, DET)
Tyrell Williams was the assumed WR1 in Detroit after an offseason where he was brought on to replace Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. (left in free agency) and surrounded by rookies. However, Williams was knocked out of Week 1’s game against the 49ers with a concussion and hasn’t passed through the NFL’s concussion protocol yet. If Jones plays, he could see a steady diet of Jaire Alexander, who is in the conversation for the best cornerback in the NFL at this point. Before getting injured, Tyrell Williams caught two of his three targets for 14 yards. Even if he does clear concussion protocol, there are plenty of wide receivers on other teams that offer more upside at this point of the season.
Quintez Cephus (WR, DET)
Quintez Cephus stands out as an interesting wide receiver since he caught the only touchdown thrown to a wide receiver by Jared Goff in Week 1. However, a dive into the statistics shows that he can’t be trusted at this point in the season. Cephus only played 35% of the offensive snaps for Detroit in Week 1. His 24 routes run was behind every Lions’ pass-catcher except Tyrell Williams, who left the game early with a concussion. Cephus can see more work if Williams is unable to play this week, but the volume and opportunities aren’t there consistently enough for him to make his way into your lineup unless there are catastrophic series events on your fantasy team.
Randall Cobb (WR, GB)
After throwing a series of tantrums throughout the offseason, Aaron Rodgers was able to get Randall Cobb back on the Green Bay Packers to help him in the passing game. Unfortunately, having Cobb on the team at this point in his career doesn’t seemingly amount to much. Cobb ran just 11 routes in Week 1, which was a game the Packers were forced to throw to try and negate a big deficit. The Packers leading receiver in the slot was Alan Lazard, rendering Cobb useless for most of the game. Cobb isn’t worth a flier at this point until he shows he can be a part of the game plan.
Potential Sleepers
Jamaal Williams (RB, DET)
Jamaal Williams had an extremely efficient debut for the Detroit Lions, carrying the ball nine times for 54 yards and a touchdown while adding eight receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. Both Williams and Swift were top-10 running backs in PPR this week despite Williams only seeing a 35% snap share on offense. At this point, I have Williams slotted as a sleeper more so out of caution than anything. Swift missed a majority of the offseason thanks to a groin injury, so fantasy managers need to wait and see if that work distribution is going to be consistent in Detroit’s backfield. Even so, Williams will factor in the weekly game plan and has a revenge game coming up against Green Bay, so he’s a FLEX-worthy play based on what we saw in Week 1.
A.J. Dillon (RB, GB)
A Week 1 blowout robbed us of a chance to truly see what Green Bay’s backfield is going to look like with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the 2021 season. Dillon played on just 28% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, carrying the ball four times for 19 yards and adding one reception on two targets for seven yards. Jones led the way in the backfield (as we expected), but Green Bay replaced most of their starters by the end of the game and ended up using Kylin Hill instead of Jones or Dillon. Green Bay should be able to control the ball better (and even blow out the Lions) on Monday night, which means we should see more Dillon than Week 1. He has FLEX upside for teams that are navigating injuries after the first week of the season.
Kalif Raymond (WR, DET)
Kalif Raymond has interesting upside considering his role in an anemic Lions wide receiver room. Raymond led all Detroit receivers in routes run (46) and receiving yards (50) and finished tied for first in receptions (3). This entire receiving situation is a mess, but at least Raymond is on the field consistently and could always find himself peppered with targets in shootout situations. He’s a total desperation play with upside, especially if he sees a consistent flow of targets.
Trinity Benson (WR, DET)
With Tyrell Williams injured, Trinity Benson got some run for Detroit, catching three of six targets for 19 yards. Benson led Detroit in targets at the wide receiver position despite playing just 53% of the offensive snaps. Detroit traded for Benson in late August and he has some decent speed, running a 4.49 40-yard dash according to PlayerProfiler.com. Like Raymond, Benson is a desperation play but has the speed to hit a deep play and boost teams scouring the waiver wire for an injury (especially if Tyrell Williams is ruled out just before Monday night.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Like Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown is an upside play because he was on the field consistently for Detroit in Week 1. St. Brown ran 45 routes in Week 1 against San Francisco and 4 of his 50 offensive snaps came from the slot. We know that Jared Goff historically likes to target players in the slot, so that is a bonus. The rookie out of USC was targeted four times in Week 1, catching two passes for 23 yards. He has upside thanks to his position and the potential of another negative game script in Week 2.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
After plenty of offseason buzz, Marquez Valdes-Scantling starting the season catching three of eight targets for 17 yards. On one hand, the stat line leaves a lot to be desired. On the other, MVS paced Green Bay in targets against a stout New Orleans secondary. MVS is far from a must-start player at this juncture: the Packers were trailing big for a majority of their first game and MVS is the only receiver they have that can consistently run deep routes and get open for big plays. He has a huge upside against a Lions’ secondary that isn’t very good, but the odds of him repeating as Aaron Rodgers’ top target isn’t very high. He’s worth a FLEX play if you’re in a pinch (and he’s probably on a lot of waiver wires), but we need to see more consistency in his target share (and fantasy production) before he becomes a weekly lineup fixture.
Alan Lazard (WR, GB)
Green Bay’s wide receiver situation is a question mark outside of Davante Adams, meaning Lazard can easily establish himself as the second option in that passing game. Like the rest of Green Bay’s wide receivers, Lazard failed to impress in Week 1, catching just two of four targets for 16 yards. Lazard has shown the ability to have big games in his career, so he’s always got big week upside. Like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, until we see consistency in his target share and role in the passing game, he’s a FLEX upside or, in this case, an injury replacement on Monday night against a bad secondary.
