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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/29/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Wednesday brought some unique life experiences so I wasn’t able to get an article out but I posted two plays to Twitter. A loss and a push were the results, and we’ll consider ourselves lucky at that, as the push was Under 10 in the Washington/Toronto game that almost saw the Nats plate 10 themselves.
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Thursday, April 29. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.15u)
- O/U Record: 8-3-1 (+4.28u)
- Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
- First 5 Record: 3-3-3 (-.44u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.05u)
- 2021 Total Record: 16-18-5 (-3.74u)
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8 | OAK -110 TBR +100
Oakland: Chris Bassitt; Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan
Bassitt has been "Steady Eddie" for the A's, allowing just two runs in each of his last three starts, and only more than three runs once in his five outings so far this year. He's boosted his strikeout numbers the last two outings against weaker lineups, but the righty isn't a strikeout pitcher. Bassitt limits hard contact and keeps the ball in the park. He'll look for a little more run support than the lineup has bee giving lately, scoring just five runs total in the L4, including being shutout Wednesday. As a unit, they perform well against LHP, posting a team OPS of .744 with a 115 wRC+ and when traveling, those numbers bump up to an .803 OPS and 127 wRC+ to go along with a .200 ISO.
McClanahan will be making his MLB regular season debut Thursday and is one of Tampa Bay's top prospects. He made his MLB debut in the 2020 postseason and the highest level he was at before that was Double-A. In his only full minor league season, across three levels, the southpaw boasted a 3.36 ERA and a 30 K% over 127.2 IP; impressive numbers but keep in mind the talent level he was facing. Offensively, the Rays aren't exactly lighting it up recently despite winning three of the last five. They've outscored their opponents 12-9 over the L5 and are slashing .227/.305/.384 with just 15 homers against RHP, but they do have 33 doubles versus righties.
Oakland gets out of their slight funk at the plate and welcomes McClanahan, officially, to the bigs. The rookie is a solid arm for sure, but Oakland has shown early signs that they enjoy facing lefties, and on the road to boot. I think it will be a lower scoring game, and it will be interesting to see how long Tampa lets the young hurler go, which is even more of a reason to back Bassitt and the A's.
Pick: Oakland ML (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7 | PHI -118 STL +115
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola; St. Louis: Kwang Hyun Kim
Nola has had a stellar start to his season. Throw out the four runs in seven innings in Coors Field his last time out and he’s allowed just six runs in the other 24.2 IP with a 28/3 K/BB. The righty hasn’t exactly brought out his swing and miss stuff, but he’s limiting hard contact and big innings, which are huge keys to any pitcher’s success. The Phils’ lineup is about middle of the road against LHP, hosting a .710 OPS with a 94 wRC+. Of course, there’s J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins to worry about, but before Wednesday’s 5-3 win, the Phillies had scored just two runs in each of their three previous games.
Kim has burned me once already this season by spinning a gem against Cincinnati on Friday. This will be just his third start of the season, but the southpaw has shown above average stuff so far with lower expected metrics, but based off his 2020 season, those numbers should start to see some positive regression. Offensively, the Cardinals have their struggles with RHP, hosting just a .668 OPS with an 86 wRC+ and their 26 K% isn’t encouraging. However, their 25 home runs against RHP suggest a very boom-or-bust approach when guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have to face a righty.
Nola is in great form to open 2021 and gets a chance to throw everything he has at this strikeout happy Cardinals lineup. Kim on the other side will look to work off his strong last outing to keep the Phillies lineup at bay.
Pick: Under 7 (+102, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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