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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 5/3/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Left off with a 1-1 day on Friday, and the Red Sox covering the run line with ease was a pleasant way to cap off another week of ups-and-downs. We enter the first full week of May where teams start to establish where they’re going to be at, come the “Dog Days of Summer.” This is an exciting time for baseball fans, as other leagues close out their seasons, we get several more months of America’s pastime!
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Monday, May 3. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-2.25u)
- O/U Record: 8-3-2 (+4.28u)
- Runline Record: 3-4 (-0.6u)
- First 5 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.44u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.05u)
- 2021 Total Record: 18-19-6 (-2.34u)
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9 | PHI -114 MIL +110
Milwaukee: Adrian Houser; Philadelphia: Vince Velasquez
Houser has been a victim of his own park in the early going. Throwing just 24.2 IP, the 28-year-old’s hone ERA is three points higher at Miller Park than when on the road, however, a 5/6 K/BB over 9.2 innings in those roads starts is pretty ugly. His stuff isn’t impressive and he’s getting hit hard, so regression is expected and soon. Offensively, the Brewers carry a .686 OPS against RHP in the road but just a .302 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. Manager Craig Counsell said Christian Yelich (back) will be activated sometime in this Philadelphia series, but gave no direct indication of what day. When he returns, expect this offense to see a nice boost vs righties.
Philly got their hearts ripped out Sunday night on a controversial replay return of Rhys Hoskins’, would-be, game-tying home run. They lost 8-7 but that’s baseball, baby. Velasquez will get his shot to return the train to the tracks Monday, but the righty has had some issues since joining the rotation two starts ago. He’s allowed four home runs in just 8.1 innings as a starter, but to his advantage, that only cost him five earned runs total. The Phils’ lineup is likely foaming at the mouth to make up for Sunday‘s heartbreaking loss. They aren’t great against RHP, but they do get a nice boost at home but with the fire power in this offense, they’ll really need to boost the .135 ISO against RHP at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies come out with a fire today and get Velasquez some run support early. As long as the Phillies starter can keep the ball in the yard, he has an advantage over his mound opponent.
Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8.5 | OAK -120 TOR +110
Toronto: Steven Matz; Oakland: Frankie Montas
Matz comes into Monday looking to rebound from a clunker his last time out. The southpaw had been impressive over his first four starts, allowing just six earned runs over 23.1 IP, before surrendering six in just 3.2 innings against the Nationals last week. However, the 28-year-old is limiting hard contact and overall limiting big innings, something he had struggled with mightily in the past. Offensively, the Jays are hot right now, following a sweep of the Braves where they outscored Atlanta 26-12. However, they begin a road trip in Oakland where they have struggled mightily thus far. A team slash line of .206/.272/.336 against RHP on the road makes them one of the worst in MLB.
Montas has had a rocky start to 2021. How last two outings he allowed nine runs over 10 innings but with a 9/2 K/BB but has served up four long balls in that time. His stuff has shown up, but he’s getting hit hard which leaves him unable to string together any ounce of consistency. Offensively, Oakland shown their bouts of inconsistency as well, despite the 17-12 record. For a team littered with right-handed hitters, you’d expect better than a .699 OPS and .306 wOBA versus LHP on the road. However, their .189 ISO proves the damage they can do when things fall into place.
Toronto’s offense certainly has the potential they showed in the Braves series but to not note their struggles against righties is ignorant. Then throw in this series features two of the better bullpens ones baseball and I look for a low-scoring affair to open things up.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-112, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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