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Jackson Sparks' fantasy football rookie analysis for wide receiver Marvin Mims. Is this NFL rookie WR a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper?
Former Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims was a four-star recruit (247 Sports) out of high school in the state of Texas, but landed at Oklahoma -- the school that had just produced Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb in back-to-back draft classes. The expectations for Oklahoma wideouts are high, and although it took some time, he ultimately delivered.
The Sooners boasted one of the best offenses in the country during the Lincoln Riley era, but when Riley left ahead of the 2022 season, the OU offense regressed. That didn't stop Mims from breaking out and becoming a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
What did Mims accomplish during his Oklahoma career and what is his fantasy football outlook with the Denver Broncos as a rookie and beyond? Let's dive into his rookie profile!
Marvin Mims NFL Rookie Profile
Team: Denver Broncos
College: Oklahoma
Height: 5'11"
Weight 183
Age: 21 (3/19/2002)
Arm Length: 31 5/8"
Hand Size: 9"
2022 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick: 32
40 Time: 4.38
Freshman Season Upside Flash
Mims got off to a hot start to his college career, racking up 80 yards and scoring a touchdown in his first career game. It would set the stage for his impressive freshman campaign, in which he set the OU freshman record for touchdown receptions in a season.
To make things more impressive, this was the Covid-shortened college football season which limited practice time and shortened the regular season by two games. He had an instant connection with Sooner quarterback Spencer Rattler and looked to be the next dynamic receiver in Lincoln Riley's offense.
| Opponent | Rec | Yds | Avg | Long | TDs |
| Missouri St | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 58 | 1 |
| Kansas St | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 11 | 2 |
| Iowa St | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Texas | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 30 | 1 |
| TCU | 4 | 132 | 33.0 | 61 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 37 | 0 |
| Kansas | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 16 | 1 |
| Oklahoma St | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 27 | 0 |
| Baylor | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Iowa St | 7 | 101 | 14.4 | 45 | 1 |
| Florida | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 27 | 1 |
| Total | 37 | 610 | 16.5 | 61 | 9 |
Ultimately, he led the Oklahoma offense in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns as an 18-year-old. It doesn't get much more impressive than that. His 18.5 breakout age ranks in the 97th percentile historically.
Slightly Underwhelming Sophomore Campaign
The 2021 Sooners saw Spencer Rattler regress and Caleb Williams become a star, and while Mims increased his yardage total, his receptions, and touchdowns took a hit -- even though he played in two more games. He still led the team in receiving by over 300 yards, but he was tied for fourth on the team in total receptions. Instead of being a go-to volume receiver, he was a splash-play (22.0 YPR) specimen. That's valuable to an offense, but it could hurt a player's NFL Draft stock.
| Opponent | Rec | Yds | Avg | Long | TDs |
| Tulane | 5 | 117 | 23.4 | 50 | 0 |
| Western Carolina | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 23 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 13 | 0 |
| Kansas St | 4 | 71 | 17.8 | 40 | 0 |
| Texas | 5 | 136 | 27.2 | 52 | 2 |
| TCU | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 41 | 0 |
| Kansas | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 135 | 33.8 | 67 | 2 |
| Baylor | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 12 | 0 |
| Iowa St | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 22 | 0 |
| Oklahoma St | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Oregon | 2 | 57 | 28.5 | 55 | 1 |
| Total | 32 | 705 | 22.0 | 67 | 5 |
His sophomore campaign doesn't warrant much criticism, but based on his true freshman year, expectations were a bit higher than the stat line he ultimately produced in a high-powered offensive attack.
When Riley left for USC, Mims' future was uncertain, but he stayed at Oklahoma and produced his most impressive season yet as a true junior.
Monster Junior Year
In 2022, Mims became the bonafide No. 1 option in the passing game, catching 15 more passes and totaling 569 yards more than the next closest OU receiver. Given the chance at head coach and quarterback, he far exceeded expectations and remained a high yards-per-reception weapon, but this time commanded a ton of volume and targets.
| Opponent | Rec | Yds | Avg | Long | TDs |
| UTEP | 3 | 81 | 27.0 | 42 | 0 |
| Kent St | 7 | 163 | 23.3 | 58 | 2 |
| Nebraska | 4 | 66 | 16.5 | 38 | 0 |
| Kansas St | 4 | 87 | 21.8 | 50 | 1 |
| TCU | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 17 | 0 |
| Texas | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | -2 | 0 |
| Kansas | 9 | 106 | 11.8 | 33 | 0 |
| Iowa St | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Baylor | 4 | 120 | 30.0 | 63 | 1 |
| West Virginia | 4 | 98 | 24.5 | 67 | 0 |
| Oklahoma St | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 22 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | 5 | 162 | 32.4 | 77 | 2 |
| Florida St | 2 | 77 | 38.5 | 46 | 0 |
| Total | 54 | 1,083 | 20.1 | 77 | 6 |
The Sooner ranked just 44th nationally in passing yards per game, but Mims finished the season 19th in receiving yards -- all while ranking in the 94th percentile in yards per reception (20.1).
Mims showed everything he needed to in his junior season, and ultimately had nothing left to prove at the collegiate level. Although he was far from a consensus first-round prospect, he declared for the 2023 NFL Draft.
Marvin Mims Draft Stock Movement
Mims was known to be a small receiver, so to maximize his value -- he needed to flash elite speed and explosion at the NFL Combine. He did just that, posting a 4.38 40-yard dash, a 39.5" vertical leap, and a 10' 9" broad jump. This performance tied his profile together and made him one of the strongest wide receiver prospects in the class.
According to MockDraftDataBase.com, Mims was ranked as low as the consensus No. 120 overall prospect at one point in the pre-draft process but ultimately settled in at the No. 70 spot just before the draft. That range ended up being close as the Denver Broncos traded up into the end of the second round to select him at pick No. 63 overall. It was the first pick of the Sean Payton era in the Mile High City.
Marvin Mims Fantasy Football Outlook
Russell Wilson looked awful last year and the Broncos' wide receiver room already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton in it, but Mims is a strong prospect and again, Sean Payton felt the need to trade up and select him with the first draft selection of his tenure in Denver. The organization is adamant they won't trade Sutton or Jeudy this offseason after rumors that they were available, but even if they don't, the team has an out in Sutton's contract after 2023.
While Wilson had his worst season in the NFL last year, he still ranked No. 1 in deep ball attempts (87), No. 11 in money throws (23), No. 12 in yards per attempt (7.2), and No. 4 in air yards per attempt (9.4). (PlayerProfiler.com). The Broncos also ranked fifth in completions of 25 yards or more. The Broncos' problem wasn't its big play ability. Instead, it was keeping the chains moving with short and intermediate passes and running the football.
When you add it all together, Mims is a perfect fit for Wilson. We've seen Wilson thrive with deep threats Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin throughout his NFL career. Mims could be next in line for that kind of role. That said, he sets up to make an immediate impact in at least Best Ball formats as a rookie.
It's tough to see a path toward consistent production right away unless the Denver offense dramatically improves, but it's fair to expect boom weeks in 2023. Mims could be a steal in dynasty rookie drafts at his mid-second-round ADP. Dynasty managers want to see early production, so he's being discounted. Take the shot on him if you're rebuilding.
According to Underdog's 2023 Best Ball ADP, Mims is being selected around the WR72 spot for 2023. Given Mims' profile and the overall fit in the offense, having exposure to him at his cheap price seems like a great move.
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