RADIO
The NBA offseason has turned into a matter of days--hours, if you push it--when it comes to player movement. Tampering present or not, the truth is that franchises lose no time in inking their new acquisitions to healthy deals, wheeling and dealing rookies and draft picks left and right, and pulling off trades with other teams around the nation. That's why entering September pretty much all the dust has already settled leading up to next season.
With virtually all free agents already signed and rookies knowing where they'll start their careers, I will cover some of the trades that took place in the past few weeks to declare fantasy winners and losers involved in them.
Let's take a look at some players who changed teams via trade who should find their stock cratering down this season.
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Ricky Rubio, PG - Cleveland Cavaliers
Acquired from Minnesota
Adding Ricky Rubio to the fold should be good news for anyone out there trying to put together a basketball squad. For the Cavs, though, that's perhaps not entirely true. Rubio will play the savvy-grandpa role in Ohio, he will be tasked with grooming both Darius Garland and Collin Sexton as his most close teammates if only because of their position, and also play cultivated-vet to the likes of Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro, and no. 3 draftee Evan Mobley.
Rubio started 51 of his 68 games last season playing for his first-franchise-ever TWolves. For starters, you can forget about that happening next year. Sexton--even if he might get traded away through the season with Cleveland not enamored of him--and Garland are locked into the two starting-guard spots, and a Rubio-esque acquisition won't be changing that any time soon.
There is a chance Rubio rebounds from what was his worst season ever since he arrived all the way back in 2012. Just peep at the Olympics and watch for yourself; Rubio might be getting into the wrong side of 30 but he still has some juice left in him. That being said, though, the playing profile he painted last season could very well replicate itself in 2021 (16% usage rate, bad defense, putrid offense, and a measly 7.3 FGA per game...) and his teammates won't be even remotely close to the talent levels of Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell, or Anthony Edwards.
Rubio finished a great 42nd in fantasy leagues back in 2020 but he dropped all the way to the 90th spot last season. It's hard to see him fall 50+ spots in back-to-back campaigns, but I wouldn't rule out such an outcome given his new situation.
Goran Dragic, PG - Toronto Raptors
Acquired from Miami
It took the Dragon less than a week to blast his new situation and franchise after getting moved by the Heat in the Kyle Lowry sign-and-trade from early August. LOL. Just let me paraphrase, because this is too good: "Toronto is not my preferred destination. I have higher ambitions." Uh, oh, flex on the Raps. We have yet to see this Raptors product on the court, obviously, but I'm not entirely sure they can get back to insta-contention this season and, on top of that, Dragic is a $19.5-million man playing his last season after hitting the open market next summer.
What I mean is that while Dragic will retain his starting PG role north of the border, he won't be in a better situation to succeed in fantasy leagues. He is flipping (mostly) Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler for (at best) Fred VanVleet--another capable ball-handler himself) and Pascal Siakam--assuming he's not moved and Toronto holds onto the current roster instead of entering a full rebuilding effort.
Toronto will need to downsize a ton if the Raps want to feature all of FVV, re-signed Gary Trent Jr., and Dragic. If that's not the case and Toronto features some FVV-Trent backcourt, things would be even worse for those betting on Dragic racking up numbers in Canada. The per-game minutes wouldn't change a lot for the Dragon even if he is used as part of the second unit (he just logged 27.3 MPG in Miami last year while starting only 11 of his 50 games, posting up a reasonable 24.4% usage rate), but it's not that he's getting into any sort of better situation with this move.
The jury is still a little bit out because there are role/usage questions surrounding the Raps squad, and it's not that Dragic can't be rerouted elsewhere considering his seemingly discontent with Toronto's quality and the fact that he's a pending FA. He could still turn into a winner--he gets traded to Dallas and starts at PG next to Luka and Porzingis, pretty much an evolutionary Bam/Butler partnership--but as long as he remains up north I'm afraid I'll be fading this man.
Russell Westbrook, PG - Los Angeles Lakers
Acquired from Washington
Let's make one thing very clear: Russ is a winner, and only we fantasy GMs are the losers here. That's obvious, considering Westbrook found a way home this offseason after the Wiz moving him west to Cali to play under the bright lights of STAPLES Center and Hollywood by extension. That's fantastic for him and his last years in the L, but that's no bueno for us fantasy players.
Just in case you have been asleep for six or seven years: Westbrook is changing teams and leaving a franchise in which his lone partner-in-crime was Bradley Beal to join one in which he'll share the rock with LeBron James and Anthony Davis (for a start) and then the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, or Lakers-favorite Talen Horton-Tucker.
Of course, some of the names above won't be playing in a similar fashion to how they did at the peak of their powers (hi, Melo!), but they will chug more than one and two shots nightly while not providing sound options for Russ to rack up numbers. After putting up the second-best season among all fantasy-eligible players in the NBA last year--only topped by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic--Russ is about to see his upside cut in half in this new (and loaded) environment.
To wit: LeBron and Davis posted 31.9% and 29.2% usage rates respectively in 2021 while PG Dennis Schroeder finished the year at 22.9% as the starting point. Russ better be updating his 32%+ usage rate mindset. Back in the bubbly 2020 when LBJ and AD played 62+ games each, they finished 4th and 8th in total fantasy points. Odds are only one of those two or Russ make it to the top-10 in 2022, and we have to think Westbrook will be the odd-man-out of critical possessions more often than not.
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